Zhukov YM, Stewart BM.
Choosing Your Neighbors: Networks of Diffusion in International Relations. International Studies Quarterly. In Press.
AbstractIn examining the diffusion of social and political phenomena like regime transition, conflict,
and policy change, scholars routinely make choices about how proximity is defined and which
neighbors should be considered more important than others. Since each specification offers an
alternative view of the networks through which diffusion can take place, one's decision can exert
a significant influence on the magnitude and scope of estimated diffusion effects. This problem is
widely recognized, but is rarely the subject of direct analysis. In international relations research,
connectivity choices are usually ad hoc, driven more by data availability than by theoretically informed
decision criteria. We take a closer look at the assumptions behind these choices, and
propose a more systematic method to asses the structural similarity of two or more alternative
networks, and select one that most plausibly relates theory to empirics. We apply this method
to the spread of democratic regime change, and offer an illustrative example of how neighbor
choices might impact predictions and inferences in the case of the 2011 Arab Spring.