%0 Conference Proceedings %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %D 2017 %T MOOC Dropout Prediction: How to Measure Accuracy? %A Whitehill, Jacob %A Mohan, Jiran %A Seaton, Daniel %A Tingley, Dustin %A Rosen, Yigal %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %G eng %0 Conference Proceedings %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %D 2017 %T Designing Adaptive Assessments in MOOCs %A Ang, Andrew %A Rosen, Yigal %A Colin Fredericks %A Rushkin, Ilia %A Glenn Lopez %A Tingley, Dustin %A Blink, Mary Jean %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %G eng %0 Conference Proceedings %B ACM CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems %D 2017 %T Connecting Instructors and Learning Scientists via Collaborative Dynamic Experimentation %A Joseph Williams %A Rafferty, Anna %A Lasecki, Walter %A Ang, Andrew %A Tingley, Dustin %A Juho Kim %B ACM CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems %G eng %0 Conference Proceedings %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %D 2017 %T ``Tools for Dynamic Experimentation and Personalization %A Joseph Williams %A Rafferty, Anna %A Maldonado, Samuel %A Ang, Andrew %A Tingley, Dustin %A Juho Kim %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %G eng %0 Conference Proceedings %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %D 2017 %T `Google BigQuery for Education: Framework for Parsing and Analyzing edX MOOC Data' %A Glenn Lopez %A Seaton, Glenn %A Ang, Andrew %A Chuang, Isaac %A Tingley, Dustin %B Proceedings of the Fourth (2017) Association for Computing Machinery on Learning @ Scale %G eng %0 Conference Proceedings %B Educational Data Mining %D 2017 %T Adaptive Assessment Experiment in a HarvardX MOOC %A Rushkin, Ilia %A Rosen, Yigal %A Ang, Andrew %A Colin Fredericks %A Tingley, Dustin %A Blink, Mary Jean %A Glenn Lopez %B Educational Data Mining %I International Conference on Educational Data Mining %G eng %0 Journal Article %J Palgrave Communications %D 2017 %T Solar geoengineering and the chemtrails conspiracy on social media %A Tingley, Dustin %A Gernot Wagner %X Discourse on social media of solar geoengineering has been rapidly increasing over the past decade, in line with increased attention by the scientific community and low but increasing awareness among the general public. The topic has also found increased attention online. But unlike scientific discourse, a majority of online discussion focuses on the so-called chemtrails conspiracy theory, the widely debunked idea that airplanes are spraying a toxic mix of chemicals through contrails, with supposed goals ranging from weather to mind control. This paper presents the results of a nationally representative 1000-subject poll part of the 36,000-subject 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), and an analysis of the universe of social media mentions of geoengineering. The former shows ~ 10% of Americans declaring the chemtrails conspiracy as “completely” and a further ~ 20–30% as “somewhat” true, with no apparent difference by party affiliation or strength of partisanship. Conspiratorial views have accounted for ~ 60% of geoengineering discourse on social media over the past decade. Of that, Twitter has accounted for >90%, compared to ~ 75% of total geoengineering mentions. Further affinity analysis reveals a broad online community of conspiracy. Anonymity of social media appears to help its spread, so does the general ease of spreading unverified or outright false information. Online behavior has important real-world reverberations, with implications for climate science communication and policy. %B Palgrave Communications %V 3 %G eng %U https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-017-0014-3 %0 Newspaper Article %B Washington Post: Monkey Cage %D 2017 %T Trump just blocked a Chinese takeover of a sensitive U.S. company. Here's what's going on. %A Adam Chilton %A Milner, Helen %A Tingley, Dustin %B Washington Post: Monkey Cage %G eng %U https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/15/trump-just-blocked-a-chinese-takeover-of-a-sensitive-u-s-company-heres-whats-going-on/ %0 Journal Article %J Human Nature Behavior %D 2017 %T Redefine Statistical Significance %A Benjamin, D. J. %A Berger, J. O. %A Johannesson, M. %A Nosek, B. A. %A Wagenmakers, E. %A LotsofOtherPeople %A Tingley, Dustin %B Human Nature Behavior %G eng %0 Journal Article %J H-Diplo/ISSF %D 2017 %T A Liberal International American Foreign Policy? Maybe Down but Not Out %A Chaudoin, Stephen %A Milner, Helen %A Tingley, Dustin %B H-Diplo/ISSF %G eng %0 Journal Article %J International Organization %D 2017 %T Emotions and the Micro-Foundations of Commitment Problems %A Jonathan Renshon %A Lee, Julia %A Tingley, Dustin %B International Organization %V 71 %P S189-S218 %G eng %N S1 %0 Journal Article %J International Organization %D 2017 %T Rising Power on the Mind %A Tingley, Dustin %B International Organization %V 71 %P S165-S188 %G eng %N S1 %0 Journal Article %J Journal of Politics %D 2017 %T The Charmed Life of Superstar Exporters: Survey Evidence on Firms and Trade Policy %A Iain Osgood %A Tingley, Dustin %A Thomas Bernauer %A In Song Kim %A Milner, Helen %A Gabriele Spilker %X

What factors determine firms’ attitudes towards trade policy? Building off the literature on firms in trade, this paper considers producers’ policy preferences and political behavior in light of two key patterns in modern international trade: industries that face import competition often have many exporters; and, foreign sales are concentrated in the hands of a small number of ‘superstar’ exporters.
Using a new survey of Costa Rican firms matched to systematic firm-level data on export behavior, we find that firm features are generally more important predictors of attitudes toward trade liberalization than industry-wide comparative advantage. We also show that export intensity is strongly associated with interest and lobbying activity on trade policy. The largest exporters, who are the
strongest supporters of global integration, dominate trade politics.

%B Journal of Politics %V 47 %P 133-152 %G eng %N 1 %0 Journal Article %J Political Analysis %D 2017 %T Sparse Estimation and Uncertainty with Application to Subgroup Analysis %A Ratkovic, Mark %A Tingley, Dustin %B Political Analysis %V 25 %P 1-40 %G eng %N 1