<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kosuke Imai</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tingley, Dustin</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A Statistical Method for Empirical Testing of Competing Theories</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">American Journal of Political Science</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://imai.princeton.edu/research/mixture.html</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">56</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">218-236</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p&gt;Empirical testing of competing theories lies at the heart of social science research. We demonstrate that a very general and well-known class of statistical models, called finite mixture models, provides an effective way of rival theory testing. In the proposed framework, each observation is assumed to be generated from a statistical model implied by one of the theories under consideration. Researchers can then estimate the probability that a specific observation is consistent with either of the competing theories. By directly modeling this probability with the characteristics of observations, one can also determine the conditions under which a particular theory applies. We discuss a principled way to identify a list of observations that are statistically significantly consistent with each theory. Finally, we propose several measures of the overall performance of a particular theory. We illustrate the advantages of our method by applying it to an influential study on trade policy preferences.&lt;/p&gt;
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