In recent years scholars have paid considerable attention to the ways in which resource dependence predicts civil violence. But by only focusing on the link between resource dependency and the outbreak of conflict, studies tend to ignore ways in which the same goods influence how conflicts end. Exploiting variation in world commodities prices as an instrument for changes per capita income, this paper presents a multi-method approach for testing the extent to which commodities markets influence the outcomes of civil wars. After testing predictions derived from a formal model, I find that the likelihood of rebel victory is significantly increased by negative shocks to per capita income.
Presented at the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA).