Working Paper
Goldin C, Katz LF. Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations. Working Paper.Abstract

American women are working more, through their sixties and even into their seventies. Their increased participation at older ages started in the late 1980s before the turnaround in older men’s labor force participation and the economic downturns of the 2000s. The higher labor force participation of older women consists disproportionately of those working at full-time jobs. Increased labor force participation of women in their older ages is part of the general increase in cohort labor force participation. Cohort effects, in turn, are mainly a function of educational advances and greater prior work experience. But labor force participation rates of the most recent cohorts in their forties are less than those for previous cohorts. It would appear that employment at older ages could stagnate or even decrease. But several other factors will be operating in an opposing direction leading us to conclude that women are likely to continue to work even longer

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Goldin C. How Japan and the US Can Reduce the Stress of Aging. Working Paper.Abstract

The Japanese are becoming older. Americans are also becoming older. Demographic stress in Japan, measured by the dependency ratio (DR), is currently about 0.64. In the immediate pre-WWII era it was even higher because Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) was in the 4 to 5 range. As the TFR began to decline in the post-WWII era, the DR fell and hit a nadir of 0.44 in 1990. But further declining fertility and rising life expectancy caused the DR to shoot up after 1995.

In this short note I simulate the DR under various conditions and make comparisons with the US. Japan has experienced a large increase in its DR because its fertility rate is low, its people are long lived and it has little immigration. Fertility is the largest of the contributors in Japan. If there are no demographic changes in Japan, the DR will be 0.88 by 2050. I also assess the role of the “baby boom” of the late 1940s and show that it was compensatory, unlike that in the US. The good news is that healthier older longer-lived people will continue to be employed for many more years than previously and that is one way to reduce demographic stress.

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Alsan M, Goldin C. Watersheds in Infant Mortality: The Role of Effective Water and Sewerage Infrastructure, 1880 to 1915. Working Paper.Abstract

We explore the first period of decline in infant mortality in the U.S. and provide estimates of the independent and combined effects of clean water and effective sewerage systems on infant mortality. Our case is Massachusetts, 1880-1915, when state authorities developed a sewerage and water district for municipalities in the Boston Greater Metropolitan area. We find that the two interventions were complementary and together accounted for approximately 44 percent of the total decline in log infant mortality among treated municipalities during the 35 years considered.  Considerable research has documented the importance of clean water interventions for improvement in population health, but there is less evidence on the importance of sewerage systems. Our findings are directly relevant to urbanization in the developing world and suggest that a dual-pronged approach of safe water and sewerage is important to improving infant and early child survival.

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Goldin C, Katz LF. A Most Egalitarian Profession: Pharmacy and the Evolution of a Family Friendly Occupation. Journal of Labor Economics. Forthcoming.Abstract

Pharmacy has become a highly remunerated female-majority profession with a small gender earnings gap and low earnings dispersion relative to other occupations. Using extensive surveys of pharmacists for 2000, 2004, and 2009 as well as the U.S. Census of Population, American Community Surveys and the Current Population Surveys, we explore the gender earnings gap, penalty to part-time work, demographics of pharmacists relative to other college graduates and evolution of the profession during the last half century. We conclude that technological changes increasing the substitutability among pharmacists, the growth of pharmacy employment in retail chains and hospitals, and the related decline of independent pharmacies reduced the penalty to part-time work and have contributed to the narrow gender earnings gap in pharmacy. Our findings on earnings, hours of work and the part-time work wage penalty are more consistent with a shift in technology than a shift in demand preferences on the part of workers in a model of equalizing differences. The position of pharmacist is among the most egalitarian of all U.S. professions today.

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Deming DJ, Yuchtman N, Abulafi A, Goldin C, Katz LF. The Value of Postsecondary Credentials in the Labor Market: An Experimental Study. American Economic Review [Internet]. 2016;106 (3) :778-806. Publisher's VersionAbstract

 We study employers' perceptions of the value of postsecondary degrees using a field experiment. We randomly assign the sector and selectivity of institutions to fictitious resumes and apply to real vacancy postings for business and health jobs on a large online job board. We find that a business bachelor's degree from a for-profit online institution is 22 percent less likely to receive a callback than one from a nonselective public institution. In applications to health jobs, we find that for-profit credentials receive fewer callbacks unless the job requires an external quality indicator such as an occupational license.

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Goldin C. Human Capital. In: Handbook of Cliometrics. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer Verlag ; 2016.Abstract

Human capital is the stock of skills that the labor force possesses. The flow of these skills is forthcoming when the return to investment exceeds the cost (both direct and indirect). Returns to these skills are private in the sense that an individual’s productive capacity increases with more of them. But there are often externalities that increase the productive capacity of others when human capital is increased. This essay discusses these concepts historically and focuses on two major components of human capital: education and training, and health. The institutions that encourage human capital investment are discussed, as is the role of human capital in economic growth. The notion that the study of human capital is inherently historical is emphasized and defended.

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Goldin C. "How to Achieve Gender Equality". Milken Institute Review. 2015;July (Q3) :24-33.PDF icon PDF
Deming D, Goldin C, Katz LF, Yuchtman N. Can Online Learning Bend the Cost Curve of Higher Education?. American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings [Internet]. 2015;105 (5) :496-501. Publisher's VersionAbstract

We examine whether online learning technologies have led to lower prices in higher education. Using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, we show that online education is concentrated in large for-profit chains and less-selective public institutions. Colleges with a higher share of online students charge lower tuition prices. We present evidence that real and relative prices for full-time undergraduate online education declined from 2006 to 2013. Although the pattern of results suggests some hope that online technology can “bend the cost curve” in higher education, the impact of online learning on education quality remains uncertain.

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Goldin C. A Grand Gender Convergence: Its Last Chapter. American Economic Review. 2014;104 (4) :1091-1119.Abstract

The converging roles of men and women are among the grandest advances in society and the economy in the last century. These aspects of the grand gender convergence are figurative chapters in a history of gender roles. But what must the “last” chapter contain for there to be equality in the labor market? The answer may come as a surprise. The solution does not (necessarily) have to involve government intervention and it need not make men more responsible in the home (although that wouldn’t hurt). But it must involve changes in the labor market, in particular how jobs are structured and remunerated to enhance temporal flexibility. The gender gap in pay would be considerably reduced and might vanish altogether if firms did not have an incentive to disproportionately reward individuals who labored long hours and worked particular hours. Such change has taken off in various sectors, such as technology, science and health, but is less apparent in the corporate, financial and legal worlds.

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A Pollution Theory of Discrimination: Male and Female Differences in Occupations and Earnings
Goldin C. A Pollution Theory of Discrimination: Male and Female Differences in Occupations and Earnings. In: Human Capital in History: The American Record. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press ; 2014. pp. 313-353.Abstract

Occupations are segregated by sex today, but were far more segregated in the early to mid-twentieth century. It is difficult to rationalize sex segregation and “wage discrimination” on the basis of men’s taste for distance from women in the same way differences between other groups in work and housing have been explained. Rather, this paper constructs a “pollution” theory model of discrimination in which occupations are defined by the level of a single-dimensional productivity characteristic. Because there is asymmetric information regarding the value of the characteristic of an individual woman, a new female hire may reduce the prestige of a previously all-male occupation. The predictions of the model include that occupations requiring a level of the characteristic above the female median will be segregated by sex and those below the median will be integrated. The historical record reveals numerous cases of the model’s predictions. For example in 1940 the greater is the productivity characteristic of an office and clerical occupation, the higher the occupational segregation by sex. “Credentialization” that spreads information about individual women’s productivities and shatters old stereotypes can help expunge “pollution.”

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Goldin C, Cellini SR. Does Federal Student Aid Raise Tuition? New Evidence on For-Profit Colleges. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. 2014;6 (November) :174-206.PDF icon PDF
Goldin C. Notes on Women and the Undergraduate Economics Major. CSWEP Newsletter. 2013;(Summer) :4-6, 15.PDF icon cswep_nsltr_sprsum_2013.pdf
Goldin C, Olivetti C. Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the Role of World War II on Women’s Labor Supply. American Economic Review. 2013;103 (3) :257-262.PDF icon PDF
Deming DJ, Goldin C, Katz LF. For-Profit Colleges. Future of Children. 2013;23 (1) :137-63.PDF icon PDF
Goldin C, Katz L. The Most Egalitarian of all Professions: Pharmacy and the Evolution of a Family-Friendly Occupation. [Internet]. 2012. WebsiteAbstract

Pharmacy has become a female-majority profession that is highly remunerated with a small gender
earnings gap and low earnings dispersion relative to other occupations. We sketch a labor market
framework based on the theory of equalizing differences to integrate and interpret our empirical findings
on earnings, hours of work, and the part-time work wage penalty for pharmacists. Using extensive
surveys of pharmacists for 2000, 2004, and 2009 as well as samples from the American Community
Surveys and the Current Population Surveys, we explore the gender earnings gap, the penalty to part-time
work, labor force persistence, and the demographics of pharmacists relative to other college graduates.
We address why the substantial entrance of women into the profession was associated with an increase
in their earnings relative to male pharmacists. We conclude that the changing nature of pharmacy
employment with the growth of large national pharmacy chains and hospitals and the related decline
of independent pharmacies played key roles in the creation of a more family-friendly, female-friendly
pharmacy profession. The position of pharmacist is probably the most egalitarian of all U.S. professions

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Deming D, Goldin C, Katz LF. The For-Profit Postsecondary School Sector: Nimble Critters or Agile Predators?. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2012;Winter 2012, v.26 (1) :139-64.PDF icon PDF
Goldin C, Katz LF. Mass Secondary Schooling and the State: The Role of State Compulsion in the High School Movement. In: Costa D, Lamoreaux N Understanding Long Run Economic Growth. Cambridge University Press ; 2011.PDF icon PDF
Goldin C, Katz LF. The Cost of Workplace Flexibility for High-Powered Professionals. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 2011;638 (1) :45-67.PDF icon PDF
Goldin C, Katz LF. Putting the “Co” in Education: Timing, Reasons, and Consequences of College Coeducation from 1835- Present. Journal of Human Capital. 2011;5 (4) :377-417.PDF icon PDF
Bertrand M, Goldin C, Katz LF. Dynamics of the Gender Gap for Young Professionals in the Financial and Corporate Sectors. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2010;2 (3) :228-255.PDF icon PDF