Data Appendix for Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy (Princeton University Press, 2015)

Data Appendix for Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy (Princeton University Press, 2015)

Table of Contents

  • 2. Latin America
    • 2.1. Download
    • 2.2. Online Documentation
  • 3. EU
    • 3.1. Download
    • 3.2. Online documentation

1 US 1800s

1.1 Download

1.2 Online Documentation

1.2.1 Overview

The final datasets are generated into data.files.YYYYMMDD in the root directory. If not using the shell scripts, then the *.dta files will be found in data/dataFiles/processed/for_analysis, and the user scripts *.do can be copied over manually from the otherscripts directory (note that they must be in the same directory as the datasets to work).

The current naming convention for the House of Representatives data is:

h##.[description of topic issue].[pooled|wide].[scd|sl].dta

The fields are:

h##

gives the Congress number; if there are two, then they are both listed at the beginning of the filname.

[description of topic issue]

This is a textual description of the topic issue that is included in the dataset. Rather than analyzing all votes at a go, it makes more sense to group them by votes that are related to particular topic issues, or large acts, in order to provide consistency in what a "hard money" vote means. More info on the topic issues is give below.

pooled|wide

indicates the shape of the datafile. Wide datasets give one observation per Congressional district. Votes for separate motions appear as different columns, which are named v##c, where ## gives the vote number, which is unique to each Congress.

Pooled datasets have one observation per vote, i.e., each Congressional district appears as many times as there are votes included in the issue topic. This is potentially better for providing an overall picture, but standard errors will need to be corrected for correlations between observations. The most standard way to do this is to cluster by Congressional district.

scd|sl

Indicates the level of the economic data of the dataset. sl indicates state-level data, so all Congressional districts in the same state will share the same economic data. scd indicates Congressional district level data.

For the Senate, a dataset has been generated to include the four votes analyzed in the original JEH paper. The naming convention is analogous, except that intial portion is s## to indicate Senate votes, and all the data is state level, so is indicated by s.

1.2.2 Topic issues

Votes are grouped according to topic issues. Since most votes cannot be completely described by the hard/soft vote dichotomy, pooling over all the votes means pooling values of the vote variable that might not be entirely consistent with each other. To help mitigate potential problems associated with this, we analyze groups of votes together; for instance inflation.bill datasets contain only the votes related to the Inflation Bill, and the vote variable will tell whether a Congressional district's representative votes for or against the Inflation Bill.

The file vote_codings.txt is dynamically generated from the comments of the associated R script, poolvotes.R, and will contain more up to date descriptions of the particular groupings, votes, and codings in the generated datasets. The most recent groups are described in the following section.

1.2.2.1 Topic definitions

This section describes the topics currently defined, and the direction that each vote is coded within each topic. Topic descriptions come from Jasmina Beganovic's notes on the secondary literature (see Additional Documentation).

Contraction Act

New Treasury Secretary High McCulloh asks Congress for authority to retire greenbacks as a first step toward resumption in December, 1856 and Congress approves by a vote of 144 to 6 pledging cooperative action in a contraction of the currency with a view to a return to specie (Unger, p.41). The original bill (Feb. 21, 1866) gives the Secretary a completely free hand in withdrawing greenbacks (V128). However, this bill is voted down and a more moderate bill is passed (V139) which allows the Treasury to retire from circulation up to $10 million of notes in the first 6 moths and no more than $4 million per month thereafter.

Table 1: Contraction Act

Congress

Vote

H/S

39

125

soft

39

126

soft

39

128

hard

39

130

soft

39

131

hard

39

139

hard

Suspension of the Contraction Act

However, during 1866-1867, McCulloh’s tight money supply policy was becoming increasingly unpopular among a heterogeneous group of businessmen, agrarians, and political opponents in part due to a business recession. Resistance culminated with a repeal of the 1866 Act passed by the House in December 1867. Senate attempted unsuccessfully to moderate the bill via amendments but passed it in February 1868(Unger, p.43).

Table 2: Suspension of Contraction Act

Congress

Vote

H/S

39

363

soft

39

429

soft

40

100

hard

40

120

soft

Bond repayment and Public Credit Act

The victory of the soft money forces on the question of money supply/contraction was followed by their defeat on the related issue of bond repayment (Unger, p.43). Western Democrats wanted the 5-20 bonds to be redeemed in greenbacks. Sherman, the Chairman of the Finance Committee came up with a funding bill in 1886 which allowed conversion of federal bonds into greenbacks in order to satisfy some pro-greenback constituents in his home state Ohio (Unger, p.88). Conservative Republicans took offense and stripped the bill of the offending features via amendments and passed it as a simple refunding measure (which did not become law due to President Johnson’s pocket veto). In the lead-up to the 1868 elections, Republicans took a strong stand against all forms of repudiation of the debt. The Republican victory in the 1868 Presidential elections gave the hard money camp strength and in March 1869 Congress passed the Pubic Credit Act, which calls for redemption of the 5-20s in gold.

Table 3: Bond repayment and Public Credit

Congress

Vote

H/S

40

134

hard

40

266

hard

40

476

hard

40

491

soft

40

492

hard

40

494

soft

40

495

hard

40

496

hard

40

531

hard

40

658

soft

40

660

soft

40

661

soft

40

662

hard

40

700

hard

Inflation Bill

In the fall of 1973 the country saw the end of the railroad boom and a panic which started a six year long economic recession. In late 1873, committees in both the House and Senate were working on bills to address the economic problems and respond to the expansionist pressures that had revived since the panic (Unger, p. 215). The bill introduced by the House (HR1572) authorized a modest expansion, a fund for currency elasticity, specie payments, and free banking. The Senate bill (S617) was a “…hodgepodge of expansionist, resumptionist and free banking elements that pleased no one entirely” (Unger, p. 217). Both bills were compromises, “designed to be all things to all men … with a jumble of elements pointing simultaneously in different directions” (Unger, p. 219). However, due to the general economic hardship, inflationist elements prevailed and both bills passed with amendments to make them more expansionary. In the Senate, S617 (which later became known as the Inflation Bill) was quickly amended into an inflationary measure (see V87, V88). Over time, the entire bill vas substituted and passed in its revised form. The House passed its own free banking bill and also approved the Senate measure by a decisive majority of 140 to 102 (Unger, p. 234).

The passing of the Inflation Bill was a product of a coalition of western and Pennsylvania Republicans. It was strongly opposed by conservative North-easterners from both parties with the support of merchants, bankers and reformers. Although it was generally believed the Pres. Grant favored the bill, he vetoed it in an unexpected move on April 22 (Unger, p.244). Senate voted on a motion to override the veto but fell short of the required two-thirds.

Table 4: Inflation Bill

Congress

Vote

H/S

43

122

hard

43

124

soft

43

125

hard

43

126

soft

Repeal of the Resumption Act

A compromise bill drafted by Senate Republicans that satisfied various Republican constituents by providing for free banking with a reduction of greenbacks and resumption by accumulation of a gold reserve, and resumption to gold at a certain date four years later (January 1, 1879). The bill was thought to be a showing of unity by Republican senators in an election year. It was passed in the Senate strictly along party lines and then in the House by a lame duck Congress with by moderate Republicans with the Democrats and Republican extremists opposed (Unger, p.259). It brought the country eventually to the gold standard but at the time of passing it was not taken very seriously due to its vagueness and lack of operative features.

Following the Resumption Act, several attempts were made in the House to repeal the unpopular measure, mainly led by liberal democrats. However, they encountered resistance from most Republicans and a group of North-eastern and Western Democrats. This split in the party proved challenging for the Democrats. Moreover, House rules on voting outside the regular committee time (2/3 majority required for victory) made the repeal more difficult.

Table 5: Repeal of the Resumption Act

Congress

Vote

H/S

44

28

hard

44

44

soft

44

52

soft

44

57

soft

44

58

soft

44

59

soft

44

124

hard

44

125

soft

44

126

soft

44

154

soft

44

176

hard

44

177

soft

44

216

soft

45

6

hard

45

30

soft

Bland-Allison Act

Bland introduced the silverite bill in the House in November 1878. Senate moderates (including Alison) were able to soften the bill by removing the free coinage provision (Unger, p.362). The bill once more created a silver dollar, albeit at a limited coinage. It required the Treasury to buy between $2 and $4 million of silver per month at the fixed price of $1.29 per ounce to be coined into standard silver dollars1 (Timberlake, p.28). The bill was pro silver but a weak compromise. It was supported by the Greenbackers (Hicks, p.305), by most leading members of the Democratic party, and a significant number of Republicans from western silver-producing states. The executive branch was generally anti-silver in this period and when the bill came to President Hayes, he vetoed it. (Timberlake, p.28) Both the Senate and the House re-passed the bill with the required 2/3 majority.

Table 6: Bland-Allison Act

Congress

Vote

H/S

45

12

soft

45

86

hard

45

87

soft

45

93

soft

Sherman Act

Continued the principle of the Bland-Allison Act, but increased the government’s required purchase amount to 54 million ounces / year, which was roughly equal to the silver output of the U.S. Nevertheless, the price of silver continued to fall. The motivation for passing a pro-silver compromise on the Republican side stemmed from a promise they had made to certain constituents during the 1888 campaign in which Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland in a close election. (Hicks, p.306)

Table 7: Sherman Act

Congress

Vote

H/S

51

194

hard

51

195

hard

51

196

soft

51

197

hard

51

220

soft

1.2.3 Variable descriptions

 

1.2.3.1 Vote variables

Variable name

Description

vote

1=vote for hard money, 0=vote for soft money [POOLED]

vhardprop

Proportion of hard votes [WIDE]

vstable

Stable vote; 1=hard, 0=soft [WIDE]

vXXc

Single vote; 1=hard, 0=soft; [WIDE]

1.2.3.2 Congressional district and state variables

 

All years

The following variables are found in both the 1870 and 1890 censuses, and so they appear in all datasets.

Table 8: Congressional district level variables available in all years

Variable name

Description

totpop

Total population

urb25

Population in cities with > 25k inhabitants

acimp

Acres improved farmland

equipval

Value of farm implements and machinery

farmout

Total value of all farm output

farms

Total number of farms

farm100

Number of farms 100-499 acres

farm500

Number of farms 500-999 acres

farm1000

Number of farms > 1000 acres

mfgestab

Number of manufacturing establishments

totout

Total value of all output (farm + mfg)

farmprop

Farm proportion of total output (by value)

mfgprop

Mfg proportion of total output (by value)

tradedpc

value of tradeable agrictultural output per capita

ntradedpc

value of non-tradeable agricultural output per capita

farmpc

value of agricultural output per capita

mfgpc

value of manufacturing output per capita

party

Party code (100=Dem, 200=Repub; potential probs w/ 3rd parties)

partyR

Indicator for Republican representative

partyD

Indicator for Demacratic representative

id

Congressman ID

cD

Congressional District Number (unique within state)

state

State ICPSR Code

stateName2

State Name

name

Congressman name

1890s

The following variables appear only in the 1890 census, and hence they are found only in datasets generated with votes for the later Congresses.

Table 9: Congressional district level variables available for 1890 only

Variable name

Description

urb890

Urban population 1890

acunimp

number unimproved acres in farms

acunimp

number unimproved acres in farms

barley

number bushels barley

barley

number bushels barley

barleyac

number acres planted in barley

barleyac

number acres planted in barley

buckwhea

number bushels buckwheat

buckwhea

number bushels buckwheat

buckwhac

number acres planted in buckwheat

buckwhac

number acres planted in buckwheat

corn

number bushels indian corn

corn

number bushels indian corn

cornac

number acres planted in indian corn

cornac

number acres planted in indian corn

oats

number bushels oats

oats

number bushels oats

oatsac

number acres planted in oats

oatsac

number acres planted in oats

rye

number bushels rye

rye

number bushels rye

ryeac

number acres planted in rye

ryeac

number acres planted in rye

wheat

number bushels wheat

wheat

number bushels wheat

wheatac

number acres planted in wheat

wheatac

number acres planted in wheat

mfgcapla

value mfg capital in land

mfgcapbu

value mfg capital in buildings

mfgcapeq

value mfg capital in equipment

mfgcapca

value mfg capital in live assets/cash

mfgmisco

total misc expenses mfg (value)

mfgavemp

Average number employees of all classes in mfg estabs

mfgavemp

Average number employees of all classes in mfg estabs

valfaenc

Total value of encumbered farms

valfamtg

Total value of mortgages on enc farms

valhoenc

Total value of encumbered homes

valhomtg

Total value of mortgages on enc homes

inttot

Total interest paid on mortgages on homes/farms

inthome

Interest paid on mortgages on homes

intfarm

Interest paid on mortgages on farms

debt

Value of real estate (farm and house) mortgages as a proportion of total real estate value

debtpc

Real estate mortgage value per capita

encfarms

Value of encumbered farms as fraction of total farm value

valmtg

Total value of real estate mortgages

valtot

Total value of farms and houses

1870s

The following variables are available in 1870s data only, at both the state and Congressional district level.

Table 10: Congressional district level variables available for 1870s only

Variable name

Description

urb870

Urban population 1870 >2500

farmlab

Annual agricultural wages paid including board

mfglabor

number hands employed mfg

mfglabor

number hands employed mfg

homemfg

Value home manufactures

orchard

Value of orchard products

garden

Value of garden products

forest

Value of forest products

homemfg

Value of home manufactures

acwoods

number unimproved acres woods/forests

acwoods

number unimproved acres woods/forests

acunioth

number other unimproved acres farms

acunioth

number other unimproved acres farms

wealth

True value real and personal estate

wealthas

Assessed *value real and personal estate

The following variables are available only at the state level.

Table 11: State level variables available for 1870s only

Variable name

Description

occtot

Total number employed in all occupations

occtot

Total number employed in all occupations

agemp

Total number employed in agriculture

agemp

Total number employed in agriculture

ppsemp

Total number employed in prof services

ppsemp

Total number employed in prof services

ttremp

Total number employed in trade/transport

ttremp

Total number employed in trade/transport

mfgemp

Total number employed in manufacturing

mfgemp

Total number employed in manufacturing

stdebt

Total state indebtedness

newspaps

Total newspapers

newscops

Total newspaper copies

newscirc

Total newspaper circulation

newsad

number advertising publications

newsad

number advertising publications

newsadco

advertising publications copies

newsadci

advertising publications circulation

newsagri

number agricultural newspapers & periodicals

newsagri

number agricultural newspapers & periodicals

newsagco

agricultural publication copies

newsagci

Agricultural publications circulation

newscf

number commerce/finance publications

newscf

number commerce/finance publications

newscfco

commerce/finance publications copies

newscfci

commerce/finance publications circulation

newspo

number political publications

newspo

number political publications

newspoco

political publications copies

newspoci

political publications circulation

2 Latin America

2.1 Download

2.2 Online Documentation

 

2.2.1 Annual

Variable

Description

country

 

ifs

IFS code

year

Year

imf_areaer

IMF classification (fine)

imf_coarse

IMF classification (coarse)

df_er_alt2

De facto ER regime

annual_fine

 

annual_coarse

 

dj

De jure classification, 3 point scale. 3=pegged, 2=intermediate, 1=floating.

djbinary

De jure classification, 2 point scale. 1=fixed, 0 = intermediate/fixed

dflys

De facto classification from LY&S, 3 point scale. 3=pegged, 2=intermediate, 1=f

dflysbinary

De facto classification from LY&S, 2 point scale. 1=fixed, 0=intermediate/float

dfrrbinary

De facto classification from Reinhart and Rogoff. 2 point scale. 1=fixed, 0=fl

jspeg

binary coding of peg = 1 and nonpeg = 0

jspegtype

WHY obs is labeled peg. 1 = 0 change, 2 = 1% bands, 3 = 2% bands, 4 = 1 devalua

kspeg

peg definition: jspeg minus devals plus syp that are not devals

kscu

currency union (primarily Rose definition)

ksbase

base country ifscode

importsplusexportsofgdp

Imports plus exports (% of GDP)

cabalance_gdp

Current account balance (% of GDP)

tradebalance_gdp

Trade balance/ GDP

tot_index

Net barter terms of trade index (2000 = 100)

gdpcurrentusd

GDP (current US$)

exportsusd

Exports of goods and services (current US$)

exportsofgoodsmillionusd

Total exports (US$ m)

importsusd

Imports of goods and services (current US$)

population

Population (m)

domesticcredittops_gdp

Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)

domesticbankcredit_gdp

Domestic credit provided by banking sector (% of GDP)

kaopen

Chinn-Ito index of capital account openness

externaldebtgdpinpercent

External debt stocks, total (DOD, % of GDP)

inflation

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

loginfl

Log of inflation + 1 (linear transform)

high

High inflation, dummy for when inflation > 50 %

hyper

Hyperinflation, dummy for when inflation > 200 %

ag_empl

Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)

agri_pc_gdp

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)

manuf_empl

Employment in manufacturing (% of total employment)

manuf_pc_gdp

Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)

ind_empl

Employment in industry (% of total employment)

polity2

Democracy (Polity II)

polariz

Polarization Index

frac

Fractionalization Index

yrsoffc

Chief Executive Years in Office

yrcurnt

Years Left in Current Term

externalbalance_gdp

External balance on goods and services (% of GDP)

avgtar

Average applied tariffs.

sw

Trade openness binary variable

finopen

Chinn-Ito index of financial openness

sdtot

Standard deviation of terms of trade for particular country over whole period.

fdinetinflow

FDI, net inflows, % of GDP.

extdebt

External debt, % GDP.

portasset

Portfolio equity assets, % GDP.

portliab

Portfolio equity liabilities, % GDP.

fdiasset

FDI assets, % GDP

fdiliab

FDI liabilities, % GDP.

debtasset

Debt assets (portfolio debt + other investment), % GDP.

debtliab

Debt liabilities (portfolio debt + other investment), % GDP.

fdasset

Financial derivatives (assets), % GDP

fdliab

Financial derivatives (liabilities), % GDP.

totalasset

Total assets, % GDP.

totalliab

Total liabilities, % GDP.

netexpos

Net external position, % GDP

govstrength

 

govfrac

Probability that two deputies picked at random from among the government parties

leftexec

Dummy for left party executive. 1=Left, 0= R, C, not applicable

rightexec

Dummy for right party executive. 1=Right, 0=L, C, not applicable.

cbi

Central bank governor turnover rate (per 5 years)

system

Categorical variable. Presidential = 0, Assembly-elected President=1, Parliamen

checks

number of veto players

legelec

Legislative election dummy

exelec

Executive election dummy

election

Either legislative or executive, dummy

viewdj

Percent of countries in world with a fixed exchange rate in a given year.

viewlys

% of countries in world with a fixed exchange rate in a given year.

viewrr

% of countries in world with a fixed exchange rate in a given year.

year_cat

Years

gdp_pc_usd

GDP per capita (current US$)

gdp_pc_ppp

GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 int'l $, thousands)

resm2

Money and quasi money (M2) to total reserves ratio

resimp

Total reserves in months of imports

fdiliabilities

FDI stock (current US$ m) (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti, 2007)

dt_cur_dmak

Currency composition of PPG debt, Deutsche mark (%)

dt_cur_euro

Currency composition of PPG debt, Euro (%)

dt_cur_ffrc

Currency composition of PPG debt, French franc (%)

dt_cur_jyen

Currency composition of PPG debt, Japanese yen (%)

dt_cur_mulc

Currency composition of PPG debt, Multiple currencies (%)

dt_cur_othc

Currency composition of PPG debt, all other currencies (%)

dt_cur_sdrw

Currency composition of PPG debt, SDR (%)

dt_cur_swfr

Currency composition of PPG debt, Swiss franc (%)

dt_cur_ukps

Currency composition of PPG debt, Pound sterling (%)

dt_cur_usdl

Currency composition of PPG debt, U.S. dollars (%)

exportstoUS_comtrade

Exports to US (Comtrade)

exportstotal_comtrade

Exports to World (Comtrade)

expperUSA

Exports to US (% of total)

foreignassets_pc_gdp

Total assets in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

foreignliabilities_pc_gdp

Total liabilities in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

foreigndebtassets_pc_gdp

Foreign debt assets in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

foreigndebtliabilities_pc_gdp

Foreign debt liabilities in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

gov1vote

Vote Share of Largest Government Party

ulvote

Vote Share of Non-Aligned Parties

numvote

Vote Share of Government Parties

oppvote

Vote Share of Opposition Parties

oppfrac

Opposition Fractionalization Index

resm2_inv

Reserves to broad money (M2)

fdiliabilities_pc_gdp

FDI stock (% of GDP)

expUSA

Exports to US / GDP

peg_new

binary peg variable from df_er_alt2; 0=float, 1=peg

ereer

Effective real exchange rate (CPI 2005=100); source: IFS

carib

Dummy variable for Caribbean economy

latam

Dummy variable for Latin American economy

reer

reer

_merge

 

mfgopen

 

agopen

 

L_importsplusexportsofgdp

 

L_inflation

 

L_ag_empl

 

L_manuf_empl

 

L_mfgopen

 

L_agopen

 

L_finopen

 

L_extdebt

 

2.2.2 Monthly series

Variable

Description

country

Country

date

Date

exfixed

Fixed exchange rate, coarse classifications 1-2 being fixed

enter_peg

==1 if country enters a peg this year

exit_peg

==1 if country exits a peg the following year

time0

 

time1

 

_merge

 

_st

 

_d

 

_origin

 

_t

 

_t0

 

ifs

IFS code from IMF

year

Year

month

Month

exfine

Fine classification from Ilzetzki, Reinhart and Rogoff (2008)

imf_areaer_a

Fine classifications from IMF, but annual values only

excoarse

Coarse classification from Ilzetzki, Reinhart and Rogoff (2008)

imf_coarse_a

Coarse classifications from IMF, but annual values only

era

ER classification (1, 2, 9 or 10)

arr

ER classification (1-9)

exrate

Another exchange rate classification?

dualmult

ER dummy (1: dual/multiple regimes)

devaluation

ER dummy (1: devaluation)

foat

ER dummy (1: ??)

exratencunitsperus

Ex Rate (n.c. units per US$)

exratechange

Change in exchange rate (1970-2004 data, with exratedepapp appended for 1960-197

exratedepapp

Index of changes in exchange rate (1960-1994 data)

rer

Real exchange rate (1960-1994)

rer2

Real exchange rate, alternate measure (1960-1994)

stdevrer2

Standard deviation of real exchange rate (1960-1994)

xr_at

 

xr_af2

 

prices

Index of price level: 2000 = 100 (1970-2004)

inflation

Inflation (1970-2004)

inflation2

Inflation (1960-1994) - measured differently (TBD)

money

Money

quasimoney

Quasi Money

reserves

Reserves (1960-2004)

resimp

Reserves to imports (1970-2004)

m2reserves

M2 to reserves ratio (%) (1960-1994) - maybe inverted

gdp

GDP annual, in current US$ m (1970-2004)

lngdp_a

log(GDP).

gdpmlocc

GDPM LOC(C)

gdpmlock

GDPM LOC (K)

gdpmlock90

GDPM LOC(K90)

gdp_old

GDP semi-annual, in constant LCU (1960-1994)

gni_old

GNI (current US$)

exports

 

exportsusdc

Exports (USD C)

exports_old

Exports of goods and services (constant LCU)

exportslocc

EXPORTS LOC(C)

exportslock

EXPORTS LOC (K)

exportslock90

EXPORTS LOC(K90)

imports

 

importsusdc

Imports (USD C)

imports_old

Imports of goods and services (constant LCU)

importslocc

IMPORTS LOC(C)

importslock

IMPORTS LOC (K)

importslock90

IMPORTS LOC(K90)

tradegdp

Trade as a percent of GDP (annual values, 1970-2004)

tradebalanceusdc

Trade balance in current US$, 1960-1994

currentaccountusdc

Current account balance in current US$, 1960-1994

avgtar

Average applied tariffs, (1981-2003, World Bank)

sw

Trade openness binary variable, (1970-2004, Welch and Wacziarg)

finopen

Chinn-Ito index of financial openness, (1970-2004)

extdebt

External debt, % GDP, (1970-2004, WDI)

portasset

Portfolio equity assets, % GDP, (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

portliab

Portfolio equity liabilities, % GDP, (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

fdiasset

FDI assets, % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

fdiliab

FDI liabilities, % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

debtasset

Debt assets (portfolio debt + other investment), % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Mile

debtliab

Debt liabilities (portfolio debt + other investment), % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and

fdasset

Financial derivatives (assets), % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

fdliab

Financial derivatives (liabilities), % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

fdinetinflow

Net FDI inflows, % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

fdiinflows_old

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$)

fdinet_old

Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$)

netltcapitalflow_old

Net Long Term Capital Flow

othercapitalflows_old

Capital flows not elsewhere included (BoP, current US$)

totalasset

Total assets, % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

totalliab

Total liabilities, % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

netexpos

Net external position, % GDP (1970-2004, Lane and Milesi-Ferretti)

sdtot

Standard deviation of terms of trade over whole period, (1970-2004, Ghosh, Gulde

tot_old

Net barter terms of trade index

reservesassets

Reserves/Assets

publenassets

PubLen/Assets

cons_old

General government final consumption expenditure (constant LCU)

gdfi_old

GDFI - public sector (constant LCU)

manu

Manufacturing, value added, % of GDP (1970-2004, WDI)

agri

Agriculture, value added, % of GDP (1970-2004, WDI)

vagdp

Value added GDP (LC constant, 1960-1994)

vamanufacturinglcconstant

Value added manufacturing (LC constant, 1960-1994)

vaagriculturelcconstant

Value added agriculture (LC constant, 1960-1994)

vamininglcconstant

Value added mining (LC constant, 1960-1994)

vaelectricitygaswaterlcconstant

Value added electricity, gas and water (LC constant, 1960-1994)

vaconstructionlcconstant

Value added construction (LC constant, 1960-1994)

vatouristlcconstant

Value added tourism (LC constant, 1960-1994)

vaserviceslcconstant

Value added services (LC constant, 1960-1994)

legelec

Legislative election dummy (1960-2004, DPI)

exelec

Executive election dummy (1960-2004, DPI)

coups

Coups (1960-1994)

cumulativeelections

Cumulative elections (1960-1994)

governmentalchange

Governmental change (1960-1994)

nonconstitutionalchanges

Non constitutional changes (1960-1994)

polity

Polity 2 score (1970-2004, Polity IV)

democ

Democracy dummy, for polity scores of 7 or greater (1970-2004, Polity IV)

autoc

Autocracy dummy, for polity scores of -6 or less (1970-2004, Polity IV)

govstrength

Percentage of seats held by the government in the first chamber (1975-2004, DPI)

govfrac

Government fractionalization (1975-2004, DPI)

leftexec

Dummy for left executive, 1=Left, 0= R, C, N/A (1975-2004, DPI)

rightexec

Dummy for right executive, 1=Right, 0=L, C, N/A (1975-2004, DPI)

checks

Number of veto players (1975-2004, DPI)

cbi

Central bank governor turnover rate (per 5 years) (1970-1999, Ghosh, Gulde, and

system

Presidential = 0, Assembly-elected President=1, Parliamentary = 2 (1975-2004, DP

view6

View 6

view8

View 8

view6w

View 6 W

view8w

View 8 W

df_er_alt2_a

De facto ER regime

df_peg1_a

De facto ER regime (1: fixed, 0: floating)

annual_fine_a

 

annual_coarse_a

 

dj_a

De jure classification, 3 point scale. 3=pegged, 2=intermediate, 1=floating.

djbinary_a

De jure classification, 2 point scale. 1=fixed, 0 = intermediate/fixed

dflys_a

De facto classification from LY&S, 3 point scale. 3=pegged, 2=intermediate, 1=f

dflysbinary_a

De facto classification from LY&S, 2 point scale. 1=fixed, 0=intermediate/float

dfrrbinary_a

De facto classification from Reinhart and Rogoff. 2 point scale. 1=fixed, 0=fl

arrangem_old_a

 

regime_old_a

REGIME

regime1_old_a

 

importsplusexportsofgdp_a

Imports plus exports (% of GDP)

cabalance_gdp_a

Current account balance (% of GDP)

tradebalance_gdp_a

Trade balance/ GDP

open_old_a

Open

tot_index_a

Net barter terms of trade index (2000 = 100)

gdpcurrentusd_a

GDP (current US$)

exportsusd_a

Exports of goods and services (current US$)

exportsofgoodsmillionusd_a

Total exports (US$ m)

importsusd_a

Imports of goods and services (current US$)

population_a

Population (m)

domesticcredittops_gdp_a

Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)

domesticbankcredit_gdp_a

Domestic credit provided by banking sector (% of GDP)

kaopen_a

Chinn-Ito index of capital account openness

externaldebtgdpinpercent_a

External debt stocks, total (DOD, % of GDP)

inflation_a

Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)

loginfl_a

Log of inflation + 1 (linear transform)

loginfl_old_a

Log of inflation + 1 (linear transform), lagged one year

high_a

High inflation, dummy for when inflation > 50 %

hyper_a

Hyperinflation, dummy for when inflation > 200 %

hyper_old_a

Hyperinflation, dummy for when inflation > 1000 % (old)

ag_empl_a

Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)

ag_empl_bk_a

Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)

agri_pc_gdp_a

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)

agrl_old_a

Agrl

manuf_empl_a

Employment in manufacturing (% of total employment)

manuf_pc_gdp_a

Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)

manugdpl_old_a

Manufl

ind_empl_a

Employment in industry (% of total employment)

minl_old_a

Minl

polity2_a

Democracy (Polity II)

polariz_a

Polarization Index

frac_a

Fractionalization Index

yrsoffc_a

Chief Executive Years in Office

yrcurnt_a

Years Left in Current Term

externalbalance_gdp_a

External balance on goods and services (% of GDP)

resimp_old_a

Reserves (including gold) / Imports (goods and services)

tradegdp_a

Trade (exports + imports) / GDP

avgtar_a

Average applied tariffs.

sw_a

Trade openness binary variable

finopen_a

Chinn-Ito index of financial openness

sdtot_a

Standard deviation of terms of trade for particular country over whole period.

gdp_a

GDP, current million USD.

fdinetinflow_a

FDI, net inflows, % of GDP.

extdebt_a

External debt, % GDP.

portasset_a

Portfolio equity assets, % GDP.

portliab_a

Portfolio equity liabilities, % GDP.

fdiasset_a

FDI assets, % GDP

fdiliab_a

FDI liabilities, % GDP.

debtasset_a

Debt assets (portfolio debt + other investment), % GDP.

debtliab_a

Debt liabilities (portfolio debt + other investment), % GDP.

fdasset_a

Financial derivatives (assets), % GDP

fdliab_a

Financial derivatives (liabilities), % GDP.

totalasset_a

Total assets, % GDP.

totalliab_a

Total liabilities, % GDP.

netexpos_a

Net external position, % GDP

democ_a

Democracy dummy, for polity2 scores of 6 or greater

autoc_a

Autocracy dummy, for polity2 scores of -6 or less

govstrength_a

 

govfrac_a

Probability that two deputies picked at random from among the government parties

leftexec_a

Dummy for left party executive. 1=Left, 0= R, C, not applicable

rightexec_a

Dummy for right party executive. 1=Right, 0=L, C, not applicable.

cbi_a

Central bank governor turnover rate (per 5 years)

system_a

Categorical variable. Presidential = 0, Assembly-elected President=1, Parliamen

checks_a

number of veto players

legelec_a

Legislative election dummy

exelec_a

Executive election dummy

election_a

Either legislative or executive, dummy

viewdj_a

Percent of countries in world with a fixed exchange rate in a given year.

viewlys_a

% of countries in world with a fixed exchange rate in a given year.

viewrr_a

% of countries in world with a fixed exchange rate in a given year.

inf10m_old_a

 

inf50p_old_a

 

covatot_old_a

TOT volatility

volat_old_a

coef of var tot * openness

resKA_old_a

Capital controls1

capcon_old_a

capital controls summary variab

view6_old_a

 

resm2_old_a

Reserves/m2

polinst_old_a

 

govseats_old_a

Govseats

efpart_old_a

Efpart

dict_old_a

 

dict2_old_a

autocrac>=7

tardum_old_a

Low tariff

resdum_old_a

 

gdp_pc_usd_a

GDP per capita (current US$)

gdp_pc_ppp_a

GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 int'l $, thousands)

resm2_a

Money and quasi money (M2) to total reserves ratio

resimp_a

Total reserves in months of imports

fdiliabilities_a

FDI stock (current US$ m) (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti, 2007)

exportstoUS_comtrade_a

Exports to US (Comtrade)

exportstotal_comtrade_a

Exports to World (Comtrade)

expperUSA_a

Exports to US (% of total)

foreignassets_pc_gdp_a

Total assets in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

foreignliabilities_pc_gdp_a

Total liabilities in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

foreigndebtassets_pc_gdp_a

Foreign debt assets in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

foreigndebtliabilities_pc_gdp_a

Foreign debt liabilities in foreign currency as a % of GDP (Lane-Shambaugh)

gov1vote_a

Vote Share of Largest Government Party

ulvote_a

Vote Share of Non-Aligned Parties

numvote_a

Vote Share of Government Parties

oppvote_a

Vote Share of Opposition Parties

oppfrac_a

Opposition Fractionalization Index

latam_a

Dummy for major Latin American economies

centr_a

Dummy for smaller Central American and Caribbean economies

resm2_inv_a

Reserves to broad money (M2)

fdiliabilities_pc_gdp_a

FDI stock (% of GDP)

expUSA_a

Exports to US / GDP

liberaliz_dummy_a

Dummy for trade liberalization (Sachs and Warner (1995) & Warziarg and Welch (20

ag_emplXlib_a

Employment in agriculture X Liberalization dummy

manuf_emplXlib_a

Employment in manufacturing X Liberalization dummy

agri_pc_gdpXlib_a

Agriculture value added X Liberalization dummy

manuf_pc_gdpXlib_a

Manufacturing value added X Liberalization dummy

polity2_d0_a

Dummy if Polity II score < 0

polity2_d3_a

Dummy if Polity II score < 3

polity2_d6_a

Dummy if Polity II score < 6

presidential_a

Presidential system

parliamentary_a

Parliamentary system

dgdp_a

 

importsplusexportsofgdp

 

election

Any election, DPI (1975-2010)

exfixed2

Fixed exchange rate, coarse classifications 1 being fixed

3 EU

3.1 Download

3.2 Online documentation

 

3.2.1 Note

All data updated through 1998 unless otherwise noted.

3.2.2 Dependent Variables

Coefficient of Variation (COV)

coefficient of variation over

12-month period Jan-Dec exchange rates (currency vs DM).  Calculated as standard deviation/mean, from IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various years.  COV2 is COV*100.

Depreciation (DEPREC)

annual depreciation of country currency vs

DM.  Calculated as (XRT – 1)*100 (see below).

3.2.3 Macroeconomic Variables

Lagged Growth Rate of GDP (GDPGRLAG)

Growth rate of GDP, lagged one

year. Data for 1971-1979 figures from Economic Survey of Europe, 1984-1985;  for 1980-1993 from OECD Historical Studies: 1960-1993.  Updated with OECD Economic Outlook, 1999.

Lagged Unemployment Rate (UNEMPLAG) - Percentage of the labor force unemployed, lagged one year (Standardized Rate used except for Greece).  Data taken from OECD Main Economic Indicators, Historical Studies:Prices, Labor and Wages 1962-1991, OECD Economic Outlook 1995 (volume 58) and 1999 (volume 62), OECD Main Economic Indicators, Historical Studies: 1960-1979, and Economic Survey of Europe, 1984-1985.

Lagged Current Account as a Percent of GDP (CURACLAG)

Current

account balance as a percentage of GDP, lagged one year. Data from OECD Economic Outlook, various years.

Difference in Terms of Trade Relative to Germany (DIFFTOFT)

Percentage point change in the terms of trade over the previous year, relative to Germany's.  An increase in this figure signifies an improvement in Germany's terms of trade relative to the country in question. Data from IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various years.

NOTE: Updated with OECD data (percent change in export prices – percent change in import prices).  The original description above says that a positive number indicates an increase in Germany's TOFT, but the reverse data (i.e., country X's chgTOFT – Germany's chgTOFT) matches the old data most closely.  However, discrepancies do exist, so see the shaded columns in the dataset, which show my new calculations.  I have left these as separate columns, rather than integrate them into the original DIFFTOFT variable.

Industrial Correlation with Germany (INDCOR)

Correlation coefficient comparing the percent contribution to GDP of each ISIC 1-digit category and 2-digit categories for manufacturing  (ISIC code 3).  Because industrial structure changes slowly, the correlation coefficient is calculated for 1970, 1980, and 1990 only. Data from the OECD's Industrial Structure Statistics, various years.  Where data were missing from the OECD statistics, data were taken from the UN Yearbook of Industrial Statistics, various years.

NOTE: Since these data change only each decade, data were held constant for 1995-1998 at 1994 levels.

Change in Consumer Prices (CPI)  (%)

from IMF, /International

Financial Statistics Yearbook/, various years.

Terms of Trade (TOFT)

% change in export prices - % change in import prices, over the previous year.  From IMF, International Financial Statistics.  Some country data unavailable.

Trade correlation (TRACOR)

correlation coefficient computed using exports in the country by sector (see INDCOR) and comparing with Germany's figure.

NOTE: As with INDCOR, 1994 numbers held constant for 1995-1998.

Exchange rate against the DM (XRT)

End-of-year exchange rate of currency vs DM at time t (12/31/t), divided by exchange rate at time t-1.  From IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various years.

Exchange rate against the Dollar (EXCHRATE)

average exchange rate of currency vs $ at time t, when t denotes the current year. 

Exports to the EC as percent of GDP (ECX)

data from IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, various years.

Exports to the DM Zone as percent of GDP (DMX)

data from IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, various years.

Deposit Restrictions (DEPRES)

dummy for deposit restrictions, from Rose and IMF, Exchange Arrangements, various years.

Bilateral Payments with non-members (BIPAYNM)

dummy variable (1=yes), from Rose and IMF, Exchange Arrangements, various years.

Bilateral Payments with members (BIPAYM)

dummy variable (1=yes), from Rose and IMF, Exchange Arrangements, various years.

Capital Restrictions (CAPRES)

dummy variable (1=yes), from Rose and IMF, Exchange Arrangements, various years.

Capital Controls (CAPCTRL)

sum of the four previous variables, an index of capital controls (1-4, with 4 highest), from Rose and IMF, Exchange Arrangements, various years.

Trade balance (TRADE_B1)

Trade balance in millions of dollars.  Data from IMF,  International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various years.

Trade balance as % of GDP (TBALGDP)

Data from IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various years.

Change in trade balance as % of GDP (TBALCHG)

Change in the trade balance from the previous year, in percentage terms. Constructed from data for trade balance and GDP in IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various years.  Calculated as trade balance at time t – trade balance at time t-1, as percentage of GDP.

GDP

GDP in billions of local currency.

GDP_BIL

GDP in billions of dollars.

GDP_MIL

GDP in millions of dollars.

Government Deficit as % of GDP (DEFGDP)

Data updated from OECD Economic Outlook, general government financial balances, 1999.

3.2.4 Political Variables

Cabinet Center of Gravity (CABCG)

Party composition of the cabinet, weighted by ideological scores using a scale constructed by Geoffrey Garrett.   Data through 1991 provided by Geoff Garrett; updated using European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbooks, various years. Parties classified using codings by Castles and Mairs (1984, EJPR 12: 73-88). /NOTE: 1=far left, 2=social democratic, 3=Christian Democratic, 4=mainstream conservative, 5=far right./

Election

Number of parliamentary elections per year (usually 1 or 0).  Data obtained from Mackie, Thomas T. and Richard Rose International Almanac of Electoral History (Washington D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, 1991), National Elections (various years), and the European Journal of Political Research (various years).**

% of Seats Held by Government Parties

Percentage of legislative seats won by the government parties in the election at time t, where t denotes the current observation (SEATT) and at time t-1 (SEATT1).  Constructed in G. Bingham Powell, Jr. and Guy D. Whitten, “ A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting,” American Journal of Political Science 37(2): 391-414, 1993; updated using European Journal of Political Research, various years, and election data available at: http://www-public.rz.uni-duesseldorf.de/~nordsiew/indexe.html.//

Number of Government Parties (GOVPTYS)

Number of parties in government (cabinet). Constructed in G. Bingham Powell, , Jr. and Guy D. Whitten, “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting,” American Journal of Political Science 37(2): 391-414, 1993;  updated using European Journal of Political Research, Political Data Yearbook, various years.  Updated through 1997.

Endogenous Election (ENDELECT)

dummy if the parliamentary election at time t was endogenous.

Exogenous Election (EXELECTN)

dummy if the parliamentary election at time t was exogenous.

Legislative Center of Gravity (LEGISCG)

see CABCG above.  Same scale applied to entire parliament at time t, based on number of seats won by each party in the most recent election.  In election years, data were calculated as the weighted average of the pre-election parliament and the post-election parliament.  Data calculated from European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook, various years, and election/seat data available at: http://www-public.rz.uni-duesseldorf.de/~nordsiew/indexe.html.  Updated through 1997.

Government Ideology (GOVIDEO)

Constructed by Powell and Whitten (AJPS 37: 391-414) from average ratings of parties on a left-right scale in Castles and Mair's survey of country experts (EJPR 12: 73-88).  For coalition governments, each party's score was weighted by the % of legislative seats it held in the cabinet.  Data calculated from European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook, various years.  For years with multiple governments, data were calculated as a weighted average of the “old” and “new” governments. Updated through 1997.

Government Ideology Gap (GOVGAP)

Difference between the government parties with the lowest and highest Castles and Mairs ratings.  Again, for years with multiple governments, data calculated as weighted average of old and new governments.  Updated through 1997.

VOTET, VOTETM1, VOTETM2

Percentage of legislative seats won by the governments parties in the elections at times t, t-1, and t-2 (the three most recent elections).  For election years, data are calculated as the weighted average of the outgoing and incoming governments' scores for all three variables.  Updated through 1997.

BICAMOPP

dummy =1 when governing party did NOT control majority in second legislative chamber.  Constructed from Powell and Whitten.

OPPCHAIR

dummy=1 when legislature had strong committee system with proportionate sharing.  Constructed from Powell and Whitten.

WEAKPTY

dummy=1 if major parties lack internal cohesion in voting behavior.  Constructed from Powell and Whitten.

3.2.5 Political Economy Variables

Union Density (UNDENS)

union density, adjusted for unemployment and self-employment.  Data is Visser, from ADD G&W LINK.  This data is available through 1992-3, and replaces the old data, which was net union density (adjusted only for self-employment, not unemployment) and was available only through 1990.

Member of Snake/ERM (SNAKEMS)

Dichotomous variable = 1 if country is a member of either Snake or ERM, 0 if not. Data obtained from the BIS Annual Reports, various years, and updated using data available at http://www.ft.com/euro

Central Bank Independence (CBI)

An index of central bank independence, running from 0 (least independent to 1 (most independent). Data from Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (1992).

3.2.6 VARIABLES NOT YET UPDATED

Capital Controls (CLOSED)

A measure of capital controls constructed by Dennis Quinn, described in  Dennis Quinn, “The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation” in American Political Science Review 91(3): 531-552, 1997. His 15 point-scale measures “openness;” it is inverted here so that a higher number means more capital controls. Data obtained from the author. NOTE: not yet updated.

Manufactured Exports to DM Zone as % of GDP

Value of manufactured (SITC codes 6-8) exports to Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands as a percentage of  GDP. Data supplied by the UN from various years of their Yearbook of International Trade StatisticsNOTE: not yet updated.

Government Duration (GOVDUR)

number of months government was in office.  NOTE: current data are incorrect – need to update.

Manufactured exports to the DM Zone (DMMFG1)

Value of manufactured (SITC codes 6-8) exports to Germany and Benelux as % of GDP.

Manufactured exports to the EC/EU (ECMFG1)

Value of manufactured (SITC codes 6-8) exports to the EC/EU as % of GDP.

Public sector employment (PUBEMP)

emailing Garrett for info on updated data availability.

Public sector unionization (PUBUNION)

emailing Garrett for info on updated data availability.

Foreign direct investment data

ECFDI and DMFDI

us_files.zip3.3 MB
la_files.zip3.57 MB
eu_files.zip142 KB