Research

Information, citizen behavior, and political accountability/selection

Marshall, John. "The news voters use: Information consumption and electoral accountability in Mexico." Book project outline here

Enríquez, José Ramón, Horacio Larreguy, John Marshall, and Alberto Simpser. Forthcoming. "Mass political information on social media: Facebook ads, electorate saturation, and electoral accountability in Mexico." AEA Registry. Paper here. Journal of the European Economic Association.

Bhandari, Abhit, Horacio Larreguy, and John Marshall. 2023. "Able and mostly willing: An empirical anatomy of information's effect on voter-driven accountability in Senegal." American Journal of Political Science 67(4):1040-1066. AEA Registry. Paper here. Replication materials here.

      Coverage: AJPS blog.

Arias, EricHoracio Larreguy, John Marshall, and Pablo Querubín. 2022. "Priors rule: When do malfeasance revelations help and hurt incumbent parties?" Journal of the European Economic Association 20(4):1433-1477. EGAP Metaketa project link here. EGAP Registry. Paper here.

Alt, James E., Amalie Jensen, Horacio Larreguy, David D. Lassen, and John Marshall. 2022. "Diffusing political concerns: How unemployment information passed between social ties influences Danish voters." Journal of Politics 84(1):383-404. Paper here. Replication materials here.

Larreguy, Horacio, John Marshall, and James M. Snyder Jr. 2020. "Publicizing malfeasance: How local media facilitates electoral sanctioning of Mayors in Mexico." Economic Journal 130(631):2291-2327. Paper here. Replication materials here.

      Coverage: Nieman Lab, Global Anticorruption Blog.

Larreguy, Horacio, and John Marshall. 2020. "The Incentives and Effects of Independent and Government-Controlled Media in the Developing World." Oxford Handbook of Electoral Persuasion, edited by Elizabeth Suhay, Bernard Grofman, and Alexander Trechsel. Oxford University Press. Paper here.

Arias, EricHoracio Larreguy, John Marshall, and Pablo Querubín. 2019. "When Does Information Increase Electoral Accountability? Lessons from a Field Experiment in Mexico." In Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I, edited by Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys, Susan Hyde, Craig McIntosh, and Gareth Nellis. Cambridge University Press. Paper here.

Dunning, Thad, and many other authors. 2019. "Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials." Science Advances 5(7):eaaw2612. Paper here. Appendix here. Replication materials here.

Arias, EricPablo E. Balán, Horacio Larreguy, John Marshall, and Pablo Querubín. 2019. "How social networks help voters coordinate around information provision to improve electoral accountability: Evidence from Mexico." American Political Science Review 113(2):475-498. Paper here. Replication materials here.

Marshall, John. 2019. "Signaling sophistication: How social expectations can increase political information acquisition." Journal of Politics 81(1):167-186. Paper here. Replication materials here.

Larreguy, Horacio, John Marshall, and James M. Snyder Jr. 2018. "Leveling the playing field: How campaign advertising can help non-dominant parties." Journal of the European Economic Association 16(6):1812-1849. Paper here. Replication materials here.

Alt, James E.David D. Lassen, and John Marshall. 2016. "Credible sources and sophisticated voters: When does new information induce economic voting?" Journal of Politics 78(2):327-343. Paper here. Replication materials here.

Marshall, John, and Stephen D. Fisher. 2015. "Compensation or Constraint? How different dimensions of economic globalization affect government spending and electoral turnout." British Journal of Political Science 45(2):353-389. Paper here. Appendix here. Replication materials here.

Blog summary here. Coverage: Democratic Audit UK.

Marshall, John. "Tuning in, voting out: News consumption cycles, homicides, and electoral accountability in Mexico." Paper here. R&R, Journal of the European Economic Association.

Co-winner, MPSA 2015 Kellogg/Notre Dame Award for Best Paper in Comparative Politics. 

Bowles, Jeremy, Kevin Croke, Horacio Larreguy, Shelley Liu, and John Marshall. "Sustaining Exposure to Fact-checks: Misinformation Discernment, Media Consumption, and its Political Implications." AEA Registry. Paper here. R&R, American Political Science Review.

Arias, EricHoracio Larreguy, John Marshall, and Pablo Querubín. "Does the content and mode of delivery of information matter for electoral accountability? Evidence from a field experiment in Mexico." EGAP Metaketa project link here. EGAP Registry. Paper here.

Larreguy, Horacio, Christopher Lucas, and John Marshall. "When do media stations support political accountability? A field experiment in Mexico." AEA Registry. Early draft available on request.

Lucas, Christopher, John Marshall, and Zara Riaz. "Don't read all about it: Drug trafficking organizations and media reporting of violence in Mexico." Paper here.

Larreguy, Horacio, Soeren Henn, and John Marshall. "You get what you pay for: When do certification programs improve public service delivery?" Paper here.

 

Education, political preferences, and voting behavior

Cavaille, Charlotte, and John Marshall. 2019. "Education and anti-immigration attitudes: Evidence from compulsory schooling reforms across Western Europe." American Political Science Review 113(1):254-263. Paper here. Appendix here. Replication materials here (note: the syntax and bias correction method for the "rdrobust" command have been updated since we published this paper).

Marshall, John. 2019. "The anti-Democrat diploma: How high school education decreases support for the Democratic party." American Journal of Political Science 61(1):67-83. Paper here. Replication materials here

Larreguy, Horacio, and John Marshall. 2017. "The effect of education on civic and political engagement in non-consolidated democracies: Evidence from Nigeria." Review of Economics and Statistics 99(3):387-401. Paper here. Appendix here. Replication materials here.

Croke, KevinGuy GrossmanHoracio Larreguy, and John Marshall. 2016. "Deliberate disengagement: How education can decrease political participation in electoral authoritarian regimes." American Political Science Review 110(3):579-600. Paper here. Appendix here. Replication materials here.

Coverage: Mail and Guardian Africa.

Marshall, John. 2016. "Education and voting Conservative: Evidence from a major schooling reform in Great Britain." Journal of Politics 78(2):382-395. Paper here. Replication materials here (note: the syntax and bias correction method for the "rdrobust" command have been updated since I published this paper).

 

Clientelism and party election strategies

Cruz, CesiHoracio Larreguy, and John Marshall. 2020. "Social network effects in developing countries." Oxford Handbook of Electoral Persuasion, edited by Elizabeth Suhay, Bernard Grofman, and Alexander Trechsel. Oxford University Press. Paper here

Larreguy, Horacio, John Marshall, and Pablo Querubín. 2016. "Parties, Brokers and Voter Mobilization: How Turnout Buying Depends Upon the Party's Capacity to Monitor Brokers." American Political Science Review 110(1):160-179. Paper here. Appendix here. Replication materials here

Larreguy, Horacio, John Marshall, and Laura Trucco. "Breaking clientelism or rewarding incumbents? Evidence from an urban titling program in Mexico." Paper here.

 

COVID-19 vaccines: information, collective action, and vaccine diplomacy

Barham, Elena, Sarah Daly, Julian E. Gerez, and John Marshall, Oscar Pocasangre. 2023. "Vaccine diplomacy: How COVID-19 vaccine distribution in Latin America increases trust in foreign governments." World Politics 75(4):826-875. Paper here. Replication materials here.

      Coverage: Foreign Policy.

Argote, Pablo, Elena Barham, Sarah Daly, Julian E. Gerez, and John Marshall, Oscar Pocasangre. 2021. "Messages that increase COVID-19 vaccine willingness: Evidence from online experiments in six Latin American countries." PLoS One 16(10). Paper here. Replication materials here.

      Coverage: Communication Initiative.

Argote, Pablo, Elena Barham, Sarah Daly, Julian E. Gerez, and John Marshall, Oscar Pocasangre. 2021. "The Shot, the Message, and the Messenger: COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance in Latin America." Nature Partner Journals - Vaccines 6:118. Paper here. Replication materials here.

 

Statistical methods

Marshall, John. Forthcoming. "Can close election regression discontinuity designs identify effects of winning politician characteristics?" American Journal of Political Science. Paper here.

Marshall, John. 2016. "Coarsening bias: How instrumenting for coarsened treatments upwardly biases instrumental variable estimates." Political Analysis 24(2):157-171. Paper here. Replication materials here. Slides here.

Coverage: AJPS blog.