Transformation of the World Economy, Presentation to Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Cabinet ministers at an International Finance and Economic Assessment Council meeting, Tokyo, Japan, Thursday, March 17, 2016. (Video and media coverage)
A Productivity Revolution and Japan's Revitalization, Presentation at the Agenda for the Second Stage of Abenomics Productivity Improvement and Working Style Reform: Key Policy Measures to Realize the "Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens” at the Japan Center for Economic Research, Tokyo, Japan, Wednesday, March 16, 2016.
The Rise of Asia and the Transformation of the World Economy, at Public Forum: The Third Asia KLEMS Conference, Taipei, Taiwan, Thursday, August 13, 2015. Presentation at the 2015 Thinkers Forum: Asia’s Revival – The Economic Driver, sponsored by The Economic Daily News. (Video and media coverage)
THE INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK FOR U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH: Lessons from Postwar History, at the Future of U.S. Economic Growth Conference at the Cato Institute, Washington, D.C., Thursday, December 4, 2014. Presentation for the panel discussion of "Forecasting the Long-Term Growth Outlook." (Video)
Samuel W. Morris University Professor
Dale Jorgenson’s research includes information technology and economic growth, energy and the environment, tax policy and investment behavior, and applied econometrics. His most recent book, Double Dividend: Environmental Taxes and Fiscal Reform in the United States, co-authored with Richard Goettle, Mun Ho, and Peter Wilcoxen and published by The MIT Press in 2013, designs environmental taxes to improve economic performance and enhance environmental quality. An earlier book, Technology and the American Growth Resurgence, co-authored with Mun Ho and Kevin Stiroh and published by The MIT Press in 2005, led to establishment of the World KLEMS Initiative at Harvard in 2010 to provide international comparisons of productivity at the industry level. Results for more than forty countries were presented at the Third World KLEMS Conference, held in Tokyo, Japan, in May 2014.
Jorgenson Addresses Japan Prime Minister Abe and Cabinet
Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Cabinet ministers met with Professor Dale Jorgenson at a March 17 International Finance and Economic Assessment Council meeting. The global economy and finance meeting was organized by the Japanese government as part of their efforts to evaluate growth strategy.
Jorgenson discussed the following in his address to the council:
Three Major Issues Confronting Japan: Productivity growth in Japan has stagnated since 1995. The Japanese labor force has fallen in size since 1999 and the Japanese population began to decline in 2010. Government revenues will rise in relation to the GDP to finance needed expenditure and support an aging population.
Three New Arrows of Abenomics: First Arrow: Create a revolution in productivity and a robust economy. Second Arrow: Stabilize the population at 100 million and raise the fertility rate to 1.8. Third Arrow: Adopt a sustainable fiscal policy that meets social insurance obligations.
A Productivity Revolution in Japan. The traditional approach to growth strategy in Japan is to subsidize favored industries. When industries mature they try to block competition through government regulations. The new industrial policy is to drill through “bedrock” regulations to stimulate competition.
Implementing a New Industrial Policy. Reform agriculture by diminishing the influence of agricultural cooperatives and participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Liberalize the electricity market by creating a national grid and promote competition in the generation of electricity and retail distribution. Stimulate competition by eliminating “bedrock” regulations for trade, other services, finance and insurance, construction, and real estate.
Working-Style Reform to Promote Efficiency. The traditional Japanese employment system freezes labor mobility in Japan through salaries based on seniority and lifetime employment. Efficient deployment of Japan’s high-quality labor force is undercut by wages that do not reflect productivity. Incentives for women to postpone marriage to pursue a career and for families to postpone having children reduce fertility.
Adopting a Sustainable Fiscal Policy. Financing of social insurance obligations, especially support of the elderly, will require an increase in government revenue in relation to the GDP. A shift in the tax burden from investment to consumption will stimulate private investment and promote more rapid growth. Revenue increases must be introduced gradually to maintain aggregate demand as the growth rate of the Japanese economy accelerates.
Summary of Productivity and Japan’s Revitalization. Eliminate “bedrock” regulations to promote productivity growth and create a robust economy. Reform the traditional employment system to enhance efficiency and raise fertility. Reform taxation to stimulate private investment and meet social insurance obligations.
Charts: CLOSING THE PRODUCTIVITY GAPS BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE U.S.
Harvard Magazine, Sept. -Oct. 2014
Time to Tax Carbon
Enhancing environmental quality and economic growth
In December of this year, representatives from nations around the world will meet in Paris to discuss a global climate-change agreement that would take effect in 2020. Central to those discussions will be setting a price on carbon and its equivalents—a figure that captures the social costs of releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
As the no doubt fraught scientific and political discussion in the French capital nears, the work of Morris University Professor Dale Jorgenson, an economist known for his ability to marry theory and practice, is especially important. (Read More)