Potential Growth of the World Economy


Jorgenson, Dale, and Khuong Vu. “Potential Growth of the World Economy.” Journal of Policy Modeling 32, no. 5 (2010): 615-631.


This paper introduces a new framework for projecting potential growth of the world economy, emphasizing the contribution of information technology. We first analyze the sources of economic growth for the world economy, seven regions, and fourteen major economies during four periods – 1989-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2004, and 2004-2008. The contribution of investment in information technology has increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. We then project the potential growth rates of labor productivity and GDP for 122 economies over the ten-year period 2009-2019. Relative to historical growth for 1989-2008, we project lower growth rates for productivity and GDP.