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Abstract:

If NERICAs are to fulfil expectations of catalysing a Green Revolution in Africa, understanding their potential for diffusion and the barriers to adoption is critical. Applying program evaluation techniques to two datasets for Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria I derive estimates of current and long-run adoption rates that confirm NERICAs have potential coverage comparable to other innovations in historic Green Revolutions. Achieving this potential requires a better understanding of the distinct dynamics of awareness and adoption. By identifying the barriers to each I show that there are ‘quick wins’ for intervention that can boost NERICA adoption. More generally, adoption depends on both social learning and structural constraints. The analysis also clarifies a number of methodological issues and suggests non-parametric estimators may be more reliable than their parametric counterparts in studies of new technology adoption.