Working Papers

"Time Tax: Which Groups Wait in the Longest Lines on Election Day?" 2013.

Abstract: In the last few election cycles, long lines to vote seem to have become the new normal in some areas. Anecdotal evidence suggests that long waiting times disproportionately affect minority and lower-income neighborhoods. Previous work, however, has been plagued with data limitations and concerns with omitted variable bias. I overcome these problems by using large surveys from two recent elections to test the hypothesis that minority and low-income individuals are subject to a "time tax" when voting, which white and high-income voters are not. Using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model, I demonstrate that the racial composition of a neighborhood has a tremendous effect on the average amount of time voters in that neighborhood wait in line. Voters in areas that are just 30% black will wait, on average, three times as long to vote as voters in a 5% black area. The results on whether there is a similar effect for income are slightly less conclusive, and will require further investigation. This paper begins to answer questions which have become the source of attention in the political science and legal communities, as well as the media.

"The Electoral Value of Seniority: Does Incumbent Tenure Affect the Attitudes of Voters?" 2013. with Stephen Ansolabehere.

Abstract: Formal models of seniority in a legislature suggest that rational voters will reelect their incumbent representative when the legislative body implements rules which privilege tenured members. In this paper I test the hypothesis that voters respond to seniority by showing more support for their representative in the US House as their member's time in office increases. Using cross-sectional and experimental survey data from the 2009 CCES, I find very little support for the hypothesis. There is little correlation between incumbent tenure, in terms of both actual years and constituent perception, and constituent evaluations of the incumbent's job approval, electoral support, and personality traits. I also show that more than half of voters do not know how long their incumbent has actually served, and that they are more likely to overestimate tenure. I conclude the analysis with results from a survey experiment in which some respondents received factual information about their incumbent's time in office. Just like the cross-sectional results, the experiment does not find a seniority effect that is predicted by the formal models.