Elections are the foundation of American democracy. This course focuses on the simple questions: Who wins elections and why? Answers to these questions guide the interpretation of elections and evaluation of how well government represents the public preferences. The first half of the course presents the basic explanations and models of elections and voting behavior, and asks students to make their best forecast of the election. The second half of the course will examine why the models worked or didn't work. Students will learn how to interpret and analyze surveys and other data, to estimate models and make forecasts, and test arguments and models using predictions.