# Publications

Working Paper
Alesina, Alberto, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Chris Papageorgiou, and Dennis Quinn. Working Paper. “Structural Reforms and Election: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset”.
Alesina, Alberto, Elie Murard, and Hillel Rapoport. Working Paper. “Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe”. Abstract
We examine the relationship between immigration and attitudes toward redistribution using
a newly assembled data set of immigrant stocks for 140 regions of 16 Western European
countries. Exploiting within-country variations in the share of immigrants at the regional level, we find that native respondents display lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their residence region is higher. This negative association is driven by regions of
countries with relatively large Welfare States and by respondents at the center or at the right
of the political spectrum. The effects are also stronger when immigrants originate from Middle-
Eastern countries, are less skilled than natives, and experience more residential segregation.
These results are unlikely to be driven by immigrants' endogenous location choices.
Alesina, Alberto, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos, and Elias Papaioannou. Working Paper. “"Intergenerational Mobility in Africa"”.
Alesina, Alberto, Michela Carlana, Eliana La Ferrara, and Paolo Pinotti. Working Paper. “Revealing Stereotypes: Evidence from Immigrants in School”.
Alesina, Alberto, Bryony Reich, and Paola Giuliano. Working Paper. “Nation Building, Nationalism and Wars”. Abstract
The increase in army size observed in early modern times changed the way states conducted wars. Starting in the late 18th century, states switched from mercenaries to a mass army by conscription. In order for the population to accept to fight and endure war, the government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction and adopted policies to homogenize the population with nation-building. This paper explores a variety of ways in which nation-building can be implemented and studies its effects as a function of technological innovation in warfare.
Alesina, Alberto, Omar Bariero, Carlo Favero, Francesco Giavazzi, and Matteo Paradisi. Working Paper. “The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence”. Abstract
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations based upon government spending cuts, transfers cuts and tax hikes. We extend a narrative dataset of fiscal consolidations, with details on over 3500 measures for 16 OECD countries. We show that government spending cuts and cuts in transfers are much less harmful than tax hikes, despite the fact that nondistortionary transfers are not classified as spending. Standard New Keynesian models robustly match our results when fiscal shocks are persistent. Wealth effects on aggregate demand mitigate the impact of a persistent spending cut. Static distortions caused by persistent tax hikes cause larger shifts in aggregate supply under sticky prices.
Alesina, Alberto, Elie Murad, and Hillel Rapaport. Working Paper. “Immigration and Attitudes toward Redistribution in Europe”. Abstract
We examine the relationship between immigration and attitudes to redistribution by assembling a new dataset of immigrant stocks at the regional level in 140 regions of 16 Western European countries. We combine census and population register records with attitudinal data from the biannual 2002-2014 rounds of the European Social Survey. This data allows us to estimate this relationship by exploiting within-country variations in the share of immigrants across regions and by holding constant welfare policies set at the national level. We find that, relative to other co-nationals, native Europeans have lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their region of residence is higher. This negative relationship between immigration and redistribution is robust to the inclusion of a rich set of regional and individual controls, as well as to using six alternative measures of preferences for redistribution. This negative correlation is confined to self-reported right-wing respondents while the preferences of left-leaning ones remain unaffected by the level of immigration. While immigration from EU15 countries have no detectable effects, immigration from non-European countries is strongly associated with lower support for redistribution. Results suggest the more culturally distant and the poorer are the immigrants, the stronger is the antiredistribution effect on natives
Alesina, Alberto, Stefanie Stantcheva, and Armando Miano. Working Paper. “Immigration and Redistribution”. Abstract
We design and conduct large-scale surveys and experiments in six countries to investigate how natives' perceptions of immigrants influence their preferences for
redistribution. We find strikingly large biases in natives' perceptions of the number and characteristics of immigrants: in all countries, respondents greatly overestimate the total number of
immigrants, think immigrants are culturally and religiously more distant from them, and are economically weaker -- less educated, more unemployed, poorer, and more reliant on government transfers-- than is the case. While all respondents have misperceptions, those with the largest ones are systematically the right-wing, the non-college educated, and the low-skilled working in immigration-intensive sectors.
Support for redistribution is strongly correlated with the perceived composition of immigrants -- their origin and economic contribution. Given the very negative baseline views that respondents have of immigrants, simply making them think about immigration in a randomized manner makes them support less redistribution. To the contrary, experimentally showing respondents information about the true i) number, ii) origin, and iii) hard work'' of immigrants in their country manages to counteract and even outweigh the negative priors and generate more support for redistribution, including actual donations to charities.
Alesina, Alberto, Carlo Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi. Working Paper. “'What do we know about the effects of austerity?'”.
Alesina, Alberto, Carlo Favero, Francesco Giavazzi, Omar Barbiero, and Matteo Paradisi. Working Paper. “The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence”. Abstract

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations based upon government spending cuts, transfers cuts and tax hikes. We extend a narrative dataset of fiscal consolidations, finding details on over 3500 measures. Government spending and transfer cuts are much less harmful than tax hikes. Standard New Keynesian mod- els match our results when fiscal shocks are persistent. Wealth effects on aggregate demand mitigates the impact of a persistent spending cut. Static distortions caused by persistent tax hikes cause larger shifts in aggregate supply under sticky prices. This channel explains different sizes of multipliers found in fiscal stimuli compared to consolidation plans.

Alesina, Alberto, Gualtiero Azzalini, Carlo Favero, Francesco Giavazzi, and Armando Miano. Working Paper. “Is it the "How" or the "When" that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?”. Abstract

Using data from 16 OECD countries from 1981 to 2014 we specify
a model that determines the output eﬀect of fiscal adjustments as a function of the composition of the adjustment and the state of the cycle. We find that both the "how" and the "when" matter, but the heterogeneity related to the composition is more robust across diﬀerent specifications. Adjustments based upon spending cuts are consistently much less costly than those based upon tax increases. Our results are not explained by diﬀerent reactions of monetary policy. However, when the domestic central bank can set interest rates - that is outside of a currency union - it appears to be able to dampen the recessionary eﬀects of tax-based consolidations implemented during a recession.

Alberto Alesina, Stefanie Stantcheva, Edoardo Teso. Working Paper. “Intergenerational Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution”. Abstract

Using new cross-country survey and experimental data, we investigate how beliefs about
intergenerational mobility affect preferences for redistribution in France, Italy, Sweden, the
U.K., and the U.S.. Americans are more optimistic than Europeans about social mobility. Our randomized treatment shows pessimistic information about mobility and increases support for redistribution, mostly for “equality of opportunity” policies. We find a strong political polarization. Left-wing respondents are more pessimistic about mobility, their preferences for redistribution are correlated with their mobility percep- tions, and they support more redistribution after seeing pessimistic information. None of these apply to right-wing respondents, possibly because they see the government as
a “problem” and not as the “solution.”

NBER Working Paper No. 23027

Alesina, Alberto, Benedetta Brioschi, and Eliana La Ferrara. Working Paper. “Violence Against Women: A Cross-cultural Analysis for Africa”. Abstract

Using a new dataset, we investigate the determinants of violence
against women in Africa. We focus on cultural factors arising from pre-colonial customs and find evidence consistent with two hypotheses. First, ancient socioeconomic conditions determine social norms about gender roles, family structures and intrafamily violence which persist even when the initial conditions change. Norms about marriage patterns, living arrangements and the productive
role of women are associated with contemporary violence. Second, women’s contemporary economic role affects violence in a complex way which is itself related to traditional norms in ancient times and current bargaining power
within the marriage.

Alesina, Alberto, and Francesco Passarelli. Working Paper. “Loss Aversion, Politics and Redistribution”. Abstract

We study loss aversion in majority voting.  First, we show a status quo
bias. Second, loss aversion implies a moderating effect. Third, in a dynamic setting, the effect of loss aversion diminishes with the length of the planning horizon of voters; however, in the presence of a projection bias, majorities are partially unable to understand how fast they will adapt. Fourth, in a stochastic environment, loss aversion yields a significant distaste for risk, but also a smaller attachment to the status quo. The application of these results to a model of redistribution leads to empirically plausible implications.

Alesina, Alberto, Caterina Gennaioli, and Stefania Lovo. Working Paper. “Public Goods and Ethnic Diversity: Evidence from Deforestation in Indonesia”. Abstract

This paper shows that the level of deforestation in Indonesia is positively related
to the degree of ethnic fractionalization at the district level. To identify a casual rela- tion we exploit the exogenous timing of variations in the level of ethnic heterogeneity due to the creation of new jurisdictions. We provide evidence consistent with a lower control of politicians, through electoral punishment, in more ethnically fragmented districts. Our results bring a new perspective on the political economy of defor- estation. They are consistent with the literature on (under) provision of public goods and social capital in ethnically diverse societies and suggest that when the underlying communities are ethnically fractionalized decentralisation can reduce deforestation by delegating powers to more homogeneous communities.

NBER WP 20504

2020
Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos Elias Papaioannou{. 2020. “Intergenerational Mobility in Africa.” Econometrica. Abstract
We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa
since independence using census data. First, we map IM across 27 countries and more
than 2,800 regions, documenting wide cross-country and especially within-country
heterogeneity. Inertia looms large as differences in the literacy of the old generation
explain about half of the observed spatial disparities in IM. The rural-urban divide is
substantial. Though conspicuous in some countries, there is no evidence of systematic
gender gaps in IM. Second, we characterize the geography of IM, finding that colonial
investments in railroads and Christian missions, as well as proximity to capitals and the
coastline are the strongest correlates. Third, we ask whether the regional differences
in mobility reflect spatial sorting or their independent role. To isolate the two, we
focus on children whose families moved when they were young. Comparing siblings,
looking at moves triggered by displacement shocks, and using historical migrations to
predict moving-families’ destinations, we establish that, while selection is considerable,
regional exposure effects are at play. An extra year spent in a high-mobility region
before the age of 12 (and after 5) significantly raises the likelihood for children of
uneducated parents to complete primary school. Overall, the evidence suggests that
geographic and historical factors laid the seeds for spatial disparities in IM that are
cemented by sorting and the independent impact of regions.
Alesina, A., D. Furceri, J. D. Ostry, C. Papageorgiou, and D.P. Quinn. 2020. “Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset”. Abstract
We assemble two unique databases. One is on reforms in domestic finance, external finance, trade, product markets and labor markets, which covers 90 advanced and developing economies from 1973 to 2014. The other is on electoral results and timing of elections. In the 66 democracies considered in the paper, we show that liberalizing reforms engender benefits for the economy, but they materialize only gradually over time. Partly because of this delayed effect, and possibly because voters are impatient or do not anticipate future benefits, liberalizing reforms are costly to incumbents when implemented close to elections. We also find that the electoral effects depend on the state of the economy at the time of reform: reforms are penalized during contractions; liberalizing reforms undertaken in expansions are often rewarded. Voters seem to attribute current economic conditions to the reforms without gully internalizing the delay that it takes for reforms to bear fruit.
2018
Alesina, Alberto, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos, and Elias Papaioannou. 2018. “Intergenerational Mobility in Africa”. Abstract
We investigate the evolution of inequality and intergenerational mobility in educational attainment in Africa. Using census data covering more than 50 million people in 23 countries we document the following regularities. First, since independence, inequality has fallen across countries and intergen-erational mobility has risen, reﬂecting the rise in education across the continent. Second, the overall drop in African inequality can be attributed mostly to declines in within-country, within-region and within-ethnicity components. Third, the initially moderate regional and ethnic diﬀerences in education persist, revealing strong inertia across these lines. Fourth, we describe the geography of educational mobility across regions and ethnic groups uncovering strong “poverty-trap” dynamics. Educational mo-bility is higher in regions and ethnicities with above-country-average schooling at independence. Fifth, we explore the geographic, historical, and contemporary correlates of intergenerational mobility both across regions and ethnic lines. Colonial investments correlate strongly with educational mobility, while geography and pre-colonial features play a lesser role. The analysis further uncovers “Gatsby Curve” dynamics with intergenerational mobility being low in regions with high inequality.
2017
Alesina, Alberto, Bryony Reich, and Alessandro Riboni. 2017. “Nation-Building, Nationalism and Wars”. Abstract

The increase in army size observed in early modern times changed
the way states conducted wars. Starting in the late 18th century, states switched from mercenaries to a mass army by conscription. In order for the population to accept to fight and endure war, the government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction and adopted policies to homogenize the population with nation-building. This paper explores a variety of ways in which nation-building can be implemented and
studies its effects as a function of technological innovation in warfare.

2016
Alesina, Alberto, and Andrea Passalacqua. 2016. “The Political Economy of Government Dept.” Handbook of Macroeconomics, 2: 2599-2651. North Holland.