The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations


Alesina, Alberto, Carlo Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi. 2015. “The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations.” Journal of International Economics.
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We show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a
…scale adjustment is the simulation of a multi year …fiscal plan rather
than of individual …scale shocks. Simulation of …scale plans adopted
by 16 OECD countries over a 30-year period supports the hypothesis that the effects of consolidations depend on their design. Fiscal
adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly, in terms
of output losses, than tax-based ones and have especially low out-
put costs when they consist of permanent rather than stop and go
changes in taxes and spending. The difference between tax-based and
spending-based adjustments appears not to be explained by accompanying policies, including monetary policy. It is mainly due to the
different response of business confidence and private investment.

Last updated on 04/04/2017