@article {687528,
	title = {To Hell with the Cell: The Case for Immersive Statecraft Education},
	journal = {International Studies Perspectives},
	volume = {2021},
	number = {ekab004},
	year = {2021},
	abstract = {Current wargaming techniques are effective training and research instruments for military scenarios with fixed tools and boundaries on the problem. Control cells composed of officiants adjudicating and evaluating moves enforce these boundaries. Real-world crises, however, unfold in several dimensions in a chaotic context, a condition requiring decision-making under deep uncertainty. In this article, we assess how pedagogical exercises can be designed to effectively capture this level of complexity and describe a new framework for developing deeply immersive exercises. We propose a method for designing crisis environments that are dynamic, deep, and decentralized (3D). These obviate the need for a control cell and enhance the usefulness of exercises in preparing military and policy practitioners by better replicating real-world decision-making dynamics. This paper presents the application of this 3D method, which integrates findings from wargame and negotiation simulation design into immersive crisis exercises. We share observations from the research, design, and execution of {\textquotedblleft}Red Horizon,{\textquotedblright} an immersive crisis exercise held three times at Harvard University with senior civilian and military participants from multiple countries. It further explores connections to contemporary trends in international relations scholarship.},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isp/ekab004},
	author = {Arvid Bell and Alexander Bollfrass}
}
@article {650189,
	title = {The Art of Negotiation Exercise Design: Five Basic Principles to Produce Powerful Learning Experiences},
	journal = {Negotiation Journal},
	volume = {36},
	number = {1},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {57-72},
	abstract = {Negotiation exercise design is a skill that, such as negotiation itself, is rooted in certain core principles and can be refined with practice. How writers approach the design process is the key to producing effective exercises and powerful learning experiences. This article addresses five core principles that can be used to curate both simple and moderately complex negotiation exercises, including games, role plays, and simulations. These core principles are (1) define the purpose, (2) determine the format, (3) maintain focus, (4) test the function, and (5) plan for a debrief. These principles can be used as a general framework to help writers overcome the challenges inherent in exercise design and empower them to create and deliver their own tailored negotiation exercises. The principles are a tried-and-true method developed from the authors{\textquoteright} own experience designing the material for university curricula, executive education, and workshops for government, military, and private clients.},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/nejo.12305},
	author = {Arvid Bell and Taylor Valley}
}
@booklet {637504,
	title = {A Puzzle Too Complex? James Baker{\textquoteright}s Mediation Mission in Western Sahara, 1997-2004},
	journal = {HKS Case 2158.0},
	year = {2019},
	publisher = {Harvard Kennedy School Case Program},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	abstract = {An uneasy ceasefire has held in Western Sahara since 1991, largely preventing a resumption of armed conflict. Yet a\&nbsp; final status agreement to sustainably resolve the conflict has proved elusive.\&nbsp; This case describes the strategy and tactics employed by former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker to mediate an end to the Western Sahara territorial dispute from 1997 to his resignation as UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan{\textquoteright}s Personal Envoy in 2004. A highly skilled and accomplished international diplomat, Baker{\textquoteright}s attempts to resolve the Western Sahara conflict were ultimately unsuccessful.\&nbsp; The case maps out a complex web of relationships between Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, the US, France, UK, Spain and the {\textquotedblleft}Frente Polisario{\textquotedblright} movement in Western Sahara. Every time the negotiations appeared to take a step forward, the process was put two steps back a matter of weeks or months later. Little changed on the ground in Western Sahara. The obstacles to determining the final status of the disputed territory had only grown increasingly entrenched during Baker{\textquoteright}s fruitless efforts to negotiate a solution. Through the late 2010s, Western Sahara continues to be an important, if relatively neglected, conflict in the Middle East and North Africa region.},
	url = {https://case.hks.harvard.edu/a-puzzle-too-complex-james-bakers-mediation-mission-in-western-sahara-1997-2004/},
	author = {Arvid Bell and O{\textquoteright}Bryan, Tom}
}
@article {603539,
	title = {Cognitive Maelstroms, Nested Negotiation Networks, and Cascading Decision Effects: Modeling and Teaching Negotiation Complexity with Systemic Multiconstituency Exercises},
	journal = {Negotiation Journal},
	volume = {34},
	number = {1},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {37-67},
	abstract = {Negotiation practitioners today struggle to manage complex political, economic, and cultural disputes that often involve an array of intertwined issues, parties, process choices, and consequences {\textendash} both intended and unintended. To prepare next-generation negotiators for these multifaceted challenges, negotiation instructors must keep pace with the rapidly evolving complexity of today{\textquoteright}s world. In this article, we introduce systemic multiconstituency exercises (SMCEs), a new educational tool for capturing this emerging reality and helping to close the experiential learning gap between the simulated and the non-simulated environment.We discuss our pedagogical rationale for developing The Transition, a seventy-two-party SMCE inspired by the complex conflicts in Afghanistan and Central Asia and then describe our experiences conducting multiple iterations of this simulation at Harvard University. We argue that SMCEs, in which stakeholders are embedded in clusters of overlapping networks, differ from conventional multiparty exercises because of their immersive character, emergent properties, and dynamic architecture. This design allows for the creation of crucial negotiation complexity challenges within a simulated exercise context, most importantly what we call {\textquotedblleft}cognitive maelstroms,{\textquotedblright} nested negotiation networks, and cascading decision effects. Because of these features, SMCEs are uniquely suited for training participants in the art of network thinking in complex negotiations. Properly designed and executed, systemic multiconstituency exercises are next-generation teaching, training, and research platforms that carefully integrate negotiation, leadership, and decision-making challenges.},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nejo.12212/abstract},
	author = {Arvid Bell and Brian Mandell}
}
@report {603538,
	title = {Perspectives in Post-Soviet Conflict: The 2017 Davis Center Negotiation Task Force Research Report},
	year = {2017},
	institution = {Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University},
	edition = {2017},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	editor = {Arvid Bell}
}
@report {551636,
	title = {Negotiating Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa: A System Analysis after the Arab Spring, the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the Rise of ISIS},
	year = {2017},
	institution = {Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	abstract = {With the Arab Spring, the Iran nuclear deal, and the rise of ISIS, the reality in the Middle East and North Africa has changed fundamentally over the past few years. This report aims to make contributions to the understanding of the interconnected conflicts in the MENA region. It assesses the shifted network of relationships and alliances in the Middle East and North Africa and helps evaluate the effectiveness of future negotiation strategies to be employed by key actors with influence in the region.},
	url = {https://www.middle-east-negotiation-report.com},
	author = {Eileen Babbitt and Arvid Bell and Alain Lempereur and Brian Mandell and Dana Wolf}
}
@inbook {487611,
	title = {Afghanistan und Irak: Internationalisierte B{\"u}rgerkriege und regionale Allianzen},
	booktitle = {"America first": Die Au{\ss}en- und Sicherheitspolitik der  USA unter Pr{\"a}sident Trump},
	volume = {1},
	number = {1},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {39-40},
	publisher = {Peace Research Institute Frankfurt},
	organization = {Peace Research Institute Frankfurt},
	edition = {2017},
	address = {Frankfurt, Germany},
	abstract = {Im HSFK Report Nr. 1/2017 "America first: Die Au{\ss}en- und Sicherheitspolitik der USA unter Pr{\"a}sident Trump", herausgegeben von Caroline Fehl und Marco Fey, gehen Expertinnen und Experten der HSFK der Frage nach, wie die amerikanische Au{\ss}en- und Sicherheitspolitik unter Pr{\"a}sident Trump aussehen k{\"o}nnte. Wird sie von Kontinuit{\"a}t gepr{\"a}gt sein? Oder wird es gravierende Br{\"u}che geben? Wie werden sich die diplomatischen Beziehungen zu einzelnen Staaten {\"a}ndern? Der Report wirft dar{\"u}ber hinaus einen Blick auf Themen wie Terrorismus, R{\"u}stungskontrolle und Demokratie, die aus Sicht der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung besonders relevant sind.},
	url = {https://www.hsfk.de/publikationen/trump/},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@webprojectpage {424756,
	title = {The Transition Exercise. A Dynamic Negotiation Training on Conflict, Crisis, and Complexity},
	journal = {Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School},
	year = {2016},
	url = {https://www.transitionexercise.com},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@report {521186,
	title = {The Famous Guest: A Case on Parasitic Integration and Value Creation},
	year = {2015},
	institution = {Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	abstract = {Negotiation Case Exercise},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@report {521181,
	title = {JetFair: A Case on Pareto Optimality in Scoreable Multi-Party Negotiations},
	year = {2015},
	institution = {Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	abstract = {Negotiation Case Exercise},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@report {324181,
	title = {Afghanistan and Central Asia in 2015. An Overview of Actors, Interests, and Relationships},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015},
	institution = {Peace Research Institute Frankfurt},
	edition = {132},
	address = {Frankfurt, Germany},
	abstract = {
	This report assesses the interests of the most relevant state and non-state actors in Afghanistan and Central Asia in the aftermath of the 2014 Afghan presidential election. It is guided by the premise that the armed conflict in Afghanistan should be understood as being heavily intertwined with regional politics. Its purpose is to serve as an overview of the negotiation environment in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It identifies actors, interests, and relationships that are helpful to take into consideration when sequencing and orchestrating a peace process that could de-escalate the war in Afghanistan and help build a more stable and cooperative region. The majority of the PRIF Report focuses on relevant actors and their network of relationships, and the conclusion details three future scenarios and a set of recommendations that could facilitate a coordinated negotiation process.

},
	url = {http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/44916},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@workingpaper {258711,
	title = {A Network in Transition: Actors, Interests, and Alliances in the Afghanistan Conflict as of Early 2014},
	year = {2014},
	abstract = {
	This paper maps out the negotiation environment of the Afghanistan conflict. So far, all attempts to end the violence between the Afghan government, insurgency, and US and NATO through negotiations have failed. Key obstacles to negotiations are the complexity of the conflict and the variety of state and non-state actors that are directly or indirectly involved. This paper explores the interests and relationships of these actors and highlights the most important alliances and connections. Finally, these connections are visualized in a network diagram.

},
	url = {https://www.hsfk.de/en/no_cache/publications/publication-search/publication/a-network-in-transition-actors-interests-and-alliances-in-the-afghanistan-conflict-as-of-early-20/},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@article {258716,
	title = {The Roadblock of Contested Recognition: Identity-Based Justice Claims as an Obstacle to Peace Negotiations in Afghanistan},
	journal = {International Negotiation},
	volume = {19},
	number = {3},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {518-542},
	abstract = {Resistance to negotiation and the continuation of violence dictate the course of events in the Afghanistan conflict. However, several studies have thoroughly explored the interests of the main parties to the conflict and a settlement that respects their key demands is possible. The current military situation resembles a {\textquotedblleft}hurting stalemate,{\textquotedblright} which according to rationalist assumptions should compel the parties to move toward negotiations. This article argues that the main obstacle to negotiation is an underlying and unaddressed conflict of recognition between the United States, the Afghan government, and the Taliban. While each party believes it is driven by justice claims, they perceive their opponents to be driven by a hostile strategy informed by incompatible interests. Relying on the Cultural Theory of International Relations, this article explores the parties{\textquoteright} motives in the conflict, focusing on the need to strive for esteem and honor. It suggests that the reciprocal acknowledgement of legitimate identity-related justice claims could remove a key obstacle to formal negotiation.},
	url = {http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/15718069-12341289},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@booklet {258721,
	title = {Ziel verfehlt. Die Mitverantwortung der NATO f{\"u}r zivile Opfer in Afghanistan},
	journal = {HSFK-Standpunkte},
	volume = {2014},
	number = {6},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1-12},
	url = {http://www.hsfk.de/publikationen/publikationssuche/publikation/ziel-verfehlt/},
	author = {Arvid Bell and Cornelius Friesendorf}
}
@booklet {258706,
	title = {Fr{\"u}her, entschiedener und substanzieller? Engagiertes au{\ss}enpolitisches Handeln und milit{\"a}rische Zur{\"u}ckhaltung sind kein Widerspruch},
	journal = {HSFK-Standpunkte},
	volume = {2014},
	number = {1},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1-8},
	url = {https://www.hsfk.de/de/no_cache/publikationen/publikationssuche/publikation/frueher-entschiedener-und-substanzieller/},
	author = {Arvid Bell and Matthias Dembinski and Thorsten Gromes and Berthold Meyer}
}
@report {521191,
	title = {Connoro Pretorian: Negotiating joint-ventures and building trust in emerging markets},
	year = {2013},
	institution = {Harvard Kennedy School Negotiation Project},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	abstract = {Negotiation Case Exercise},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@report {258701,
	title = {Verhandeln statt B{\"u}rgerkrieg: Ein Pl{\"a}doyer f{\"u}r Waffenstillstand und offizielle Friedensgespr{\"a}che in Afghanistan},
	year = {2013},
	institution = {Peace Research Institute Frankfurt},
	edition = {2013},
	address = {Frankfurt, Germany},
	abstract = {Afghanistan befindet sich seit {\"u}ber 30 Jahren im B{\"u}rgerkrieg. Mit Blick auf den f{\"u}r 2014 geplanten Abzug der UN-mandatierten und NATO-gef{\"u}hrten ISAF-Truppen analysiert der vorliegende Report die verschiedenen Konflikte, die der derzeitigen Phase des Krieges zugrunde liegen. Er argumentiert, dass die komplexe Konfliktsituation durch die Strategie der {\quotedblbase}Sicherheits{\"u}bergabe{\textquotedblleft} nicht bearbeitet wird und pl{\"a}diert daf{\"u}r, den afghanischen B{\"u}rgerkrieg durch offizielle Friedensverhandlungen zwischen den zentralen Konfliktparteien zu deeskalieren. Hierzu werden konkrete Vorschl{\"a}ge gemacht, wie die USA, die NATO und Deutschland einen formalisierten und inklusiven Friedensprozess in Afghanistan unterst{\"u}tzen k{\"o}nnen.},
	issn = {4/2013},
	url = {https://www.hsfk.de/en/no_cache/publications/publication-search/publication/verhandeln-statt-buergerkrieg-ein-plaedoyer-fuer-waffenstillstand-und-offizielle-friedensgespraeche-in/},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
@inbook {258696,
	title = {Acht Jahre nach der Invasion. Eine Zwischenbilanz.},
	booktitle = {Friedensgutachten 2010},
	volume = {24},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {104-117},
	publisher = {LIT-Verlag},
	organization = {LIT-Verlag},
	edition = {2010},
	address = {M{\"u}nster},
	abstract = {The Peace Report (Friedensgutachten) is the joint yearbook of the institutes of peace and conflict research in Germany. It has been published annually since 1987. Researchers from various disciplines examine ongoing international conflicts from the perspective of peace strategy. Their analyses are the basis for the editors{\textquoteright} statement which summarizes and assesses the results and formulates recommendations for peace and security policies in Germany and Europe.},
	url = {http://friedensgutachten.de/index.php/id-2010-188.html},
	author = {Arvid Bell}
}
