Publications

2005
IMF Programs Data TEXT. 2005. 7_jmedata_variables.txt
IMF Programs Data EXCEL. 2005. 7_jmedata.xls
Which Countries Have State Religions?. 2005. state_religion_08-05_revised.pdf
Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century. 2005. equity_premium_12-1-05.pdf
Barro RJ. How Tax Reform Drives Growth and Investment. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. The Case of Asia's "Missing Women". Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. Why Private Accounts Are Bad Public Policy. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. Iraq: One Nation Under Allah. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. How The Fed Could Channel Greenspan. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. Quit Bullying China. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. The Political Power Of The Pew. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. What Price Catastrophe Risk?. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro RJ. The Right Choice for the Fed. Business Week. 2005. PDF
Barro R. Rare Events and the Equity Premium. 2005.Abstract

The potential for rare economic disasters explains a lot of asset-pricing puzzles. I calibrate disaster probabilities from the twentieth century global history, especially the sharp contractions associated with World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II. The puzzles that can be explained include the high equity premium, low risk-free rate, and volatile stock returns. Another mystery that may be resolved is why expected real interest rates were low in the United States during major wars, such as World War II. The model, an extension of Rietz [1988], maintains the tractable framework of a representative agent, time-additive and iso-elastic preferences, and complete markets. The results hold with i.i.d. shocks to productivity growth in a Lucas-tree type economy and also with the inclusion of capital formation.

equity_premium_12-1-05.pdf
Barro R. How Tax Reform Drives Growth and Investment. Business Week. 2005. bw05_01_24.pdf
Barro R. The Case of Asia’s Missing Women. Business Week. 2005. bw05_02_28.pdf
Barro R. Why Private Accounts Are Bad Public Policy. Business Week. 2005. bw05_04_04.pdf
Barro R. Iraq: One Nation Under Allah. Business Week. 2005. bw05_05_09-1.pdf
Barro R. How the Fed Could Channel Greenspan. Business Week. 2005. bw05_06_13.pdf
Barro R. Quit Bullying China. Business Week. 2005. bw05_07_18.pdf

Pages