Climate Sensitivity on Instrumental Time Scales
Climate sensitivity is perhaps the most prominent parameter associated with global warming. By virtue of being a change in the globally averaged temporal mean temperature, it should be easier to constrain than any metric associated with regional change or higher moments of the temperature distribution. However, the latest IPCC report (AR5) is no closer to constraining its uncertainty range than the Charney report was 35 years prior. The question arises to what degree can modern instrumental records constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?
We use conceptual models based on a linear feedback framework to go beyond equilibrium sensitivity and try to understand the time-scale structure of the climate response. We find that instrumental records inadequately sample the slow modes of the response function.
Palaeo-sensitivity
- Caldeira, K., and N. P. Myhrvold, 2013: Projections of the pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Environmental Research Letters.
- Rohling, E., and Coauthors, 2012: Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature