HOME / PUBLICATIONS /

Publications by Year: 2006

2006
Cutler, David, and Grant Miller. 2006. “Water, Water, Everywhere: Municipal Finance and Water Supply in American Cities.” Corruption and Reform: Lessons from America's Economic History, edited by Edward Glaeser and Claudia Goldin. University of Chicago Press. Website
Cutler, David, Daron Acemoglu, Amy Finkelstein, and Amy Finkelstein. 2006. “Did Medicare Induce Pharmaceutical Innovation?” American Economic Review 96 (2): 103-107.
PDF
Cutler, David, Dana Goldman, Baoping Shang, and Geoffrey Joyce. 2006. “The Value of Elderly Disease Prevention.” Forum for Health Economics and Policy 9 (2). Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. “The Economics of Health System Payment.” De Economist 154 (1): 1-18. Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. “The US Medical Care System for the Elderly.” Issues in Health Care in the U.S. and Japan, edited by David Wise Naohiro and Yashiro, 43-67. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Website
Cutler, David M, Nancy Beaulieu, Kate Ho, George Isham, Tammie Lindquist, Andrew Nelson, and Patrick O'Connor. 2006. “The Business Case for Diabetes Disease Management at Two Managed Care Organizations.” Forum for Health Economics and Policy. Website
Cutler, David M, Angus Deaton, and Adriana Lleras-Muney. 2006. “The Determinants of Mortality.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (3): 97-120. Website
Cutler, David M, Allison B Rosen, and Sandeep Vijan. 2006. “Value of Medical Innovation in the United States: 1960-2000.” New England Journal of Medicine 355: :920-927 . Website
Cutler, David M, Patricia S Keenan, and Michael Chernew. 2006. “The 'Graying' of Group Health Insurance Coverage.” Health Affairs 25 (6): 1497-1506 . Website
Cutler, David M, Alan Garber, and Dana P Goldman. 2006. Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 9. Berkeley Electronic Press. Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 8. Edited by David M Cutler and Alan Garber. Berkeley Electronic Press. Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. “An International Look at the Medical Care Financing Problem.” Issues in Health Care in the U.S. and Japan, edited by David Wise and Naohiro Yashiro, 69-81. University of Chicago Press. Website Abstract

As populations age and medical spending rises, there is no doubt that the medical system will account for an increasing part of economic activity. But how much more, and which countries will be most affected? Those are the questions I address in this paper. To answer them, I develop a model to forecast medical spending in OECD countries. The results yield several important conclusions, ranging from 2 to 4 percent of GDP in the next half century. Expected technological innovation in medicine raises the projected increase in the next 30 years to as high as 9 percent of GDP. Overall, the US and Japan will be among the most affected countries, with the UK being least affected. In Japan, the primary issue is demographic change, while medical cost increases are more important in the US.