Publications

2006
Cutler, David, Daron Acemoglu, Amy Finkelstein, and Amy Finkelstein. 2006. “Did Medicare Induce Pharmaceutical Innovation?.” American Economic Review 96 (2): 103-107. PDF
Cutler, David, Dana Goldman, Baoping Shang, and Geoffrey Joyce. 2006. “The Value of Elderly Disease Prevention.” Forum for Health Economics and Policy 9 (2). Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. “The Economics of Health System Payment.” De Economist 154 (1): 1-18. Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. “The US Medical Care System for the Elderly.” Issues in Health Care in the U.S. and Japan, edited by David Wise Naohiro and Yashiro, 43-67. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 43-67. Website
Cutler, David M, Nancy Beaulieu, Kate Ho, George Isham, Tammie Lindquist, Andrew Nelson, and Patrick O'Connor. 2006. “The Business Case for Diabetes Disease Management at Two Managed Care Organizations.” Forum for Health Economics and Policy. Website
Cutler, David M, Angus Deaton, and Adriana Lleras-Muney. 2006. “The Determinants of Mortality.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (3): 97-120. Website
Cutler, David M, Allison B Rosen, and Sandeep Vijan. 2006. “Value of Medical Innovation in the United States: 1960-2000.” New England Journal of Medicine 355: :920-927 . Website
Cutler, David M, Patricia S Keenan, and Michael Chernew. 2006. “The 'Graying' of Group Health Insurance Coverage.” Health Affairs 25 (6): 1497-1506 . Website
Cutler, David M, Alan Garber, and Dana P Goldman. 2006. Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 9. Berkeley Electronic Press. Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 8. Edited by David M Cutler and Alan Garber. Berkeley Electronic Press. Website
Cutler, David M. 2006. “An International Look at the Medical Care Financing Problem.” Issues in Health Care in the U.S. and Japan, edited by David Wise and Naohiro Yashiro, 69-81. University of Chicago Press, 69-81. WebsiteAbstract

As populations age and medical spending rises, there is no doubt that the medical system will account for an increasing part of economic activity. But how much more, and which countries will be most affected? Those are the questions I address in this paper. To answer them, I develop a model to forecast medical spending in OECD countries. The results yield several important conclusions, ranging from 2 to 4 percent of GDP in the next half century. Expected technological innovation in medicine raises the projected increase in the next 30 years to as high as 9 percent of GDP. Overall, the US and Japan will be among the most affected countries, with the UK being least affected. In Japan, the primary issue is demographic change, while medical cost increases are more important in the US.

2005
Cutler, David, and Elizabeth Brainerd. 2005. “Autopsy on an Empire: Understanding Mortality in Russia and the Former Soviet Union.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 19 (1): 107-130. PDF
Cutler, David, and Edward Glaeser. 2005. “What Explains Differences in Smoking, Drinking, and Other Health Related Behaviors?.” American Economic Review 95 (2): 238-242.
Cutler, David, Michael Chernew, and Patricia S Keenan. 2005. “Increasing Health Insurance Costs and the Decline in Health Insurance Coverage.” Health Services Research 40 (4): 1021-1039. Website
Cutler, David. 2005. “Intensive Medical Technology and the Reduction in Disability.” Analyses in the Economics of Aging, edited by David Wise. University of Chicago Press. Website
Cutler, David, Allison Rosen, Mary Beth Hamel, Milt Weinstein, Mark Fendrick, and Sandeep Vijan. 2005. “Cost-Effectiveness of Full Medicare Coverage of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors for Beneficiaries with Diabetes.” Annals of Internal Medicine 143 (2): 89-99. Website
Cutler, David, Michael Chernew, and Patricia Keenan. 2005. “Charity Care, Risk Pooling, and the Decline in Private Health Insurance.” American Economic Review 95 (2): 209-213. PDF
Cutler, David, Naomi Feldman, and Jill Horwitz. 2005. “US Adoption of Computerized Physician Order Entry Systems.” Health Affairs 24 (6): 1654-1663. Website
Cutler, David M, Edward L Glaeser, and Jacob Vigdor. 2005. “Ghettos and the Transmission of Ethnic Capital.” Ethnicity, Social Mobility, and Public Policy Comparing the USA and UK, edited by Glenn C Loury, Tariq Modood, and Steven M Teles, 204-221. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 204-221. Website
Cutler, David M, and Grant Miller. 2005. “The Role of Public Health Improvements in Health Advances: The 20th Century United States.” Demography 42 (1): 1-22.Abstract

Mortality rates in the US fell more rapidly during the late 19th and early 20th Centuries than any other period in American history. This decline coincided with an epidemiological transition and the disappearance of a mortality “penalty” associated with living in urban areas. There is little empirical evidence and much unresolved debate about what caused these improvements, however. This paper investigates the causal influence of clean water technologies – filtration and chlorination – on mortality in major cities during the early 20th Century. Plausibly exogenous variation in the timing and location of technology adoption is used to identify these effects, and the validity of this identifying assumption is examined in detail. We find that clean water was responsible for nearly half of the total mortality reduction in major cities, three-quarters of the infant mortality reduction, and nearly two-thirds of the child mortality reduction. Rough calculations suggest that the social rate of return to these technologies was greater than 23 to 1 with a cost per life-year saved by clean water of about $500 in 2003 dollars. Implications for developing countries are briefly considered.

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