Tingley, D. (2013). Public Finance and Immigration Preferences: A Lost Connection? Polity , 45 (1), 4-33. pol201230_tingley.pdf
Milner, H., & Tingley, D. (2013). The Choice for Multilateralism: Foreign Aid and American Foreign Policy. Review of International Organizations , 8 (3), 313-341.Abstract

Why do states choose multilateralism? We develop an argument focused on the burden-sharing versus control dilemma of principal-agent (PA) models. We also present two alternative theoretical frames that could explain this choice: a normative logic of appropriateness and hegemonic self binding. We examine the political bases of support for sending foreign aid through multilateral versus bilateral channels. First, we clarify the concept of multilateralism. We show that the choices for internationalism and multilateralism are distinct. Second, we develop hypotheses from each of the three theories and examine how public opinion data allow us to shed light on these different theories about multilateralism. Finally, we provide evidence about the correlates of public support for multilateral engagement. We isolate how two competing rationales—burden sharing and control—dictate some of the politics around the choice between multilateral versus bilateral aid channels. The data support our claim that a principal-agent model can help us to understand the choice for multilateralism.

Imai, K., Tingley, D., & Yamamoto, T. (2013). Experimental Designs for Identifying Causal Mechanisms (with discussions). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society-Series A , 176 (1), 5-51. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Experimentation is a powerful methodology that enables scientists to empirically establish causal claims. However, one important criticism is that experiments merely provide a black-box view of causality and fail to identify causal mechanisms. Critics argue that although experiments can identify average causal effects, they cannot explain how such effects come about. If true, this represents a serious limitation of experimentation, especially for social and medical science research whose primary goal is to identify causal mechanisms. In this paper, we consider several different experimental designs and compare their identification power. Some of these designs require the direct manipulation of mechanisms, while others can be used even when only imperfect manipulation is possible. We use recent social science experiments to illustrate the key ideas that underlie each design.

Chilton, A., & Tingley, D. (2012). The Doctrinal Paradox and International Law. University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law , 34 (1), 67-148. tingley_chilton_doctrinalir.pdf
Johnson, D., McDermott, R., Cowden, J., & Tingley, D. (2012). Dead Certain: Confidence and Conservatism Predict Aggression in Simulated International Crisis Decision-Making. Human Nature , 23 (1), 98-126. deadcertain.pdf
Imai, K., & Tingley, D. (2012). A Statistical Method for Empirical Testing of Competing Theories. American Journal of Political Science , 56 (1), 218-236. WebsiteAbstract

Empirical testing of competing theories lies at the heart of social science research. We demonstrate that a very general and well-known class of statistical models, called finite mixture models, provides an effective way of rival theory testing. In the proposed framework, each observation is assumed to be generated from a statistical model implied by one of the theories under consideration. Researchers can then estimate the probability that a specific observation is consistent with either of the competing theories. By directly modeling this probability with the characteristics of observations, one can also determine the conditions under which a particular theory applies. We discuss a principled way to identify a list of observations that are statistically significantly consistent with each theory. Finally, we propose several measures of the overall performance of a particular theory. We illustrate the advantages of our method by applying it to an influential study on trade policy preferences.

Tingley, D. (2011). Neurological Imaging and the Evaluation of Competing Theories. In Biology and Politics: The Cutting Edge . Emerald Group. neuroimagingchapter.pdf
Tingley, D. (2011). Neurological Imaging and the Evaluation of Competing Theories. In A. Somit & S. Peterson (Ed.), Biology and Politics: The Cutting Edge . Emerald Group.
Hicks, R., & Tingley, D. (2011). Causal Mediation Analysis. Stata Journal , 11 (4), 609-615.
Imai, K., Keele, L., Tingley, D., & Yamamoto, T. (2011). Unpacking the Black Box: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies. American Political Science Review , 105 (4), 765-789. mediationp.pdf
Tingley, D., & Walter, B. (2011). Can Cheap Talk Deter? An Experimental Analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution , 55 (6), 994-1018. ctjcr.pdf
Tingley, D., & Walter, B. (2011). Reputation Building in International Relations: An Experimental Approach. International Organization , 65, 343-365.Abstract
What effect does repeated play have on reputation building? The literature on international relations remains divided on whether, when, and how reputation matters in both interstate and intrastate conflict. We examine reputation building through a series of incentivized laboratory experiments. Using comparative statics from a repeated entry-deterrence game, we isolate how incentives for reputation building should change as the number of entrants changes. We find that subjects in our experiments generally build reputations and that those investments pay off, but we also find that some subjects did not react to incentives to build reputation in ways our model had predicted. In order to explain this, we focus on the heterogeneity of preferences and cognitive abilities that may exist in any population. Our research suggests that rational-choice scholars of international relations and those using more psychologically based explanations have more common ground than previously articulated.
Tingley, D. (2011). The Dark Side of the Future: An Experimental Test of Commitment Problems in Bargaining. International Studies Quarterly , 55, 521-544.Abstract
While most existing theoretical and experimental literatures focus on how a high probability of repeated play can lead to more socially efficient outcomes (for instance, using the result that cooperation is possible in a repeated prisoner's dilemma), this paper focuses on the detrimental effects of repeated play--the ``Dark Side of the Future". I study a resource division model with repeated interaction and changes in bargaining strength. The model predicts a negative relationship between the likelihood of repeated interaction and social efficiency. This is because the longer shadow of the future exacerbates commitment problems created by changes in bargaining strength. I test and find support for the model using incentivized laboratory experiments. Increases in the likelihood of repeated play leads to more socially inefficient outcomes in the laboratory.
Milner, H., & Tingley, D. (2011). Who Supports Global Economic Engagement? The Sources of Preferences in American Foreign Economic Policy. International Organization , 65 (Winter), pp 37–68. io-milner-tingley.pdf
Imai, K., Keele, L., Tingley, D., & Yamamoto, T. (2010). Causal Mediation Analysis Using R. In Advances in Social Science Research Using R (pp. 129-154) . New York, Springer.
Tingley, D., & Wang, S. (2010). Belief Updating in Sequential Games of Two-Sided Incomplete Information: An Experimental Study of a Crisis Bargaining Model. Quarterly Journal of Political Science , 5 (3), 243-255.Abstract
We investigate theoretically and experimentally the "crisis bargaining model", a dynamic game of two-sided incomplete information with player types drawn from a commonly known distribution. Within the experiment we elicited beliefs from players about their opponent's type using a quadratic scoring rule. We implement two treatments that vary a fixed terminal node payoff in the game, generating sharp comparative static predictions in both beliefs and strategies. We examine the relationship between beliefs and actions, which is not well understood in the empirical literature. We find that most beliefs and strategies are responsive to our treatments in the way predicted by theory, and that beliefs track departures from theoretical predictions about strategy choice. We highlight evidence for two deviations from Bayesian beliefs: conservative updating and motivated beliefs. We also consider other important roles for beliefs in strategic choice including the extent of rational expectations and best response to beliefs.
Tingley, D. (2010). Donors and Domestic Politics: Political Influences on Foreign Aid Commitments. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance , 50, 40-49. qref.pdf
Milner, H., & Tingley, D. (2010). The Domestic Politics of Foreign Aid: American Legislators and the Politics of Donor Countries. Economics and Politics , 22 (2), 200-232. enp.pdf
Imai, K., Keele, L., & Tingley, D. (2010). A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis. Psychological Methods , 15 (4), 309-334.Abstract
Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for three reasons; the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the inability to specify the key identification assumption, and the difficulty of extending the framework to nonlinear models. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach that overcomes these limitations. Our approach is general because it offers the definition, identification, estimation, and sensitivity analysis of causal mediation effects without reference to any specific statistical model. Further, our approach explicitly links these four elements closely together within a single framework. As a result, the proposed framework can accommodate linear and nonlinear relationships, parametric and nonparametric models, continuous and discrete mediators, and various types of outcome variables. The general definition and identification result also allow us to develop sensitivity analysis in the context of commonly used models, which enables applied researchers to formally assess the robustness of their empirical conclusions to violations of the key assumption. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the Job Search Intervention Study (JOBS II). We also offer easy-to-use software that implements all of our proposed methods.
Chaudoin, S., Milner, H. V., & Tingley, D. H. (2010). The Center Still Holds: Liberal Internationalism Survives. International Security , 35, 75-94. Publisher's Version cmt.pdf