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No major Al Qaeda attack has taken place since the 2 May 2011 killing of Osama Bin Laden. The organisation has lost quite a few important leaders. Its operations are said to be in shambles. It is merely attempting to survive rather than expand or even plan an attack. While the Arab spring is said to have depleted the Al Qaeda of its popular appeal, the difficult fiscal situation in the United States could be directing the Obama administration’s public posturing of the outfit’s reduced threat potential. While 11 September is a time for an introspection of a decade-long counter terrorism policy aimed at decimating and defeating the Al Qaeda, a trend analysis of the threat from Al Qaeda post-Abbotabad might have important pointers that speak otherwise.
Studies in Conflict and Terrorism
Counterterrorism as War: Identifying the Dangers, Risks, and Opportunity Costs of U.S. Strategy Toward Al Qaeda and Its AffiliatesThe war on al-Qaeda and its affiliates appears to be endless but every war must end. Winding down the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq has been difficult, but both were embedded in what was then called the ‘war on terrorism.’ What does ‘success’ in that war mean? With the death of bin Laden and the increase in drone operations, how far is the US from achieving it? Can this war end? The article analyzes the ongoing US response to the 9/11 attacks in historical context, revealing four patterns common to all prolonged wars: means become ends, tactics become strategy, boundaries are blurred, and the search for a perfect peace replaces reality. It concludes by laying out an effective strategy for ending the war.
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism
Crushed in the Shadows: Why Al Qaeda Will Lose the War of Ideas2010 •
Documentos De Trabajo
Al-Qaeda and Afghanistan in Strategic Context: Counterinsurgency versus Counterterrorism2010 •
American Journal of Islam and Society
U.S. Foreign Policy, Not Islamic Teachings, Account for al-Qaeda’s Draw2008 •
Recently Michael Scheuer, a former twenty-two-year CIA analyst and headof the agency’s Bin Laden Unit, gave an interview with John Barry of Newsweek.Scheuer observes that a new generation of middle-class, well-educatedMuslims are taking up arms to fight for al-Qaeda. Furthermore, he points outthat the main reason why bin Laden remains at large is because Washingtonrefuses to acknowledge – and tell Americans – that its longstanding policiestoward the Muslim world are the root of the problem. The main quote is:Our leaders say he [bin Laden] and his followers hate us because of whowe are, because we have early primaries in Iowa every four years andallow women in the workplace. That’s nonsense. I don’t think he wouldhave those things in his country. But that’s not why he opposes us. I readbin Laden’s writings and I take him at his word. He and his followers hateus because of specific aspects of U.S. foreign policy. Bin Laden lays themout for anyone to read. Six elements: our unqualified...
Over a decade has passed since the United States launched the global “war on terror” in the aftermath of tragic September 11 incident, yet the defeat of Al-Qaeda seems a far cry. This pre-emptive war, spread across the globe, is falling short of achieving its goals as the threat of Al-Qaeda to the security of the US and other allied countries is still very much alive. This global war seems to have no definitive end. This paper argues that the lack of synergy in the global alliance between the US and Muslim countries, where Al-Qaeda has found safe havens, is the key cause of failure. The Muslim states are either weak to establish its writ on both the material and ideational aspects of life in its societies or they do not share the US threat perception about Al-Qaeda. This leaves the efforts of joint counter-terrorism in doldrums. This paper predicts that lack of will and ability in the partner countries of the US will ensure the continuation of international terrorism.
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