Policies to Cope with Commodity Volatility

How commodity-exporting countries can deal with price volatility -- via fiscal, monetary, and other institutions.

Policies to Cope with Commodity Volatility

The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically​” Short abstract. 2019, Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, edited by Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey Nugent, and Hoda Selim (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Chapter 6, pp.149-182. AbstractHKS RWP17-034, August 2017CID WP no  333. (Appendix: IMF Article IVs in Gulf countries.)
Summarized in A new exchange rate regime for oil-exporting countries,”  The Forum, ERF Policy Portal, Dec.12, 2017;  and in Policy Brief No. 26, June 2017, Economic Research Forum (Cairo).

How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Three Proposals," In: R Arezki  and R. Boucekkine, editors, Rethinking the Macroeconomics of Resource-Rich Countries. (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research), 2018. Publisher's Version Abstract

Monetary Regimes to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Two Proposals," In: R. Arezki, R. Boucekkine, editros, Rethinking the Macroeconomics of Resource-Rich Countries  (London: CEPR), 2018. Publisher's Version  Abstract.

"How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals” (pdf) Oct. 2017; HKS RWP17-033CID WP 335, July 2017. Keynote address, Bank of Algeria, Algiers, May 28-29, 2016.

"Chile's Countercyclical Triumph," in TransitionsForeign Policy, June 27, 2012.

"Barrels, Bushels and BondsHow Commodity Exporters Can Hedge Volatility,"  Project Syndicate, October 17, 2011.  E.g., Korea Herald. and "Commodity bonds may be neat answer,” Sydney Morning Herald, Oct. 19.

How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?”  Beyond the Curse: Policies to Harness the Power of Natural Resources, R.Arezki, T.Gylfason & A.Sy, eds. (International Monetary Fund, 2011).  HKS RWP 11-015.  Keynote address,  High Level SeminarIMF Institute & Central Bank of Algeria, Algiers, Nov.4, 2010.  

 "How Can Commodity Producers Reduce Procyclicality?" slides, for G-20: Completing the Agenda, AEEF Conference, Session on Fighting Volatility in Commodity Markets, Ministry of Finance, Paris, Jan.2011. 

A Solution to Fiscal ProcyclicalityThe Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,” 2013, in Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edited by Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí, Series on Central Banking Analysis, and Economic Policies, vol.17,pp.323-391.  Also in Spanish translation, Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), vol.14, no.2, August, 2011 (Central Bank of Chile), pp.39-78.   NBER WP No.16945April 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," HKS RWP11-012, Feb.2011 (full version with Fixed Effects). CID WP 216, Jan.2011 WP 602Jan 2011; Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, Oct.2010, Santiago.  DataIn Stata.  Data explanation.  Data for figures.

A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," Economia, vol.11 (Brookings Institution), 2011.  NBER WP 16362 Slides, World Bank, Sept.2009.  Box in Natural Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean: Beyond Booms and Busts, World Bank, 2010..  [“LAC can avoid 'natural resource curse' through savings, good policies – World Bank ReportThe Gleaner, Jamaica, Sept.15, 2010.]

Comments on “Credibility, Commitment and Regulation, by Dieter Helm,” in The Natural Resources Trap, B.Hogan & F.Sturzenegger, eds., 2010 (MIT Press), p.325-30.

“Peg the Export Price Index: A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Countries,” in Journal of Policy Modeling, June 2005. HKS RWP03-003.

"A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export Price (‘PEP’)," International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), vol. , no.1, Spring 2003, 61-88.

"Should Gold-Exporters Peg Their Currencies to Gold?", Research Study No. 29 for the World Gold Council
London, November 2002. Tables and Charts

"A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity," with Ayako Saiki, in Journal of Economic Integration, September 2002, Vol.17, No.3, 417-448.

 

 

 

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