Crises and Crashes

Are Leading Indicators Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability?  Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis,” with George Saravelos, in Journal of International Economics 87, no.2, July 2012, pp. 216-31; Online Appendix, 2012.  NBER WP 16047; HKS RWP 11-024; M-RCBG WP 2011-07.   Summary at VoxEU2010. 

"Does Openness to Trade Make Countries Less Vulnerable to Sudden Stops? Using Gravity to Establish Causality", with Eduardo CavalloJournal of International Money and Finance 27, Issue 8, Dec.2008, 1430-1452.  NBER WP No.10957; HKS WP 2007.

"Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," in IMF Staff Papers, 52, no.2, 2005.
The Mundell Fleming Lecture, Nov, 5, 2004IMF 5th Annual Research Conference. HKS RWP 05-017;  NBER WP No.11508.   
[Data on fate of political leaders after devaluations & promises.  Yr.byYr summary.]

“Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons,”  with Shang-Jin Wei, World Bank, Washington DC. NBER WP no. 10907. In Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide, edited by Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto, Cambridge University Press, 2005.  Paperback, 2010.  Tables & Figures.  Russian translation of summary, ADB, 2009.

 final.dooley1.jpg (111286 bytes) final.edwards1.jpg (109004 bytes)Edited books from University of Chicago Press (Chicago):
Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, with Michael Dooley, 2003.
Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, with Sebastian Edwards (Univ. of Chicago Press), 2002. 

"Coping with Crises in Emerging Markets: Adjustment versus Financing," in Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System, edited by Peter Kenen and Alexander Swoboda (International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.), 2001.  Reprinted in Perspectives in Global Finance, Dilip Das, ed. (Routledge, NY), 2003. 

"International Lender of Last Resort," from Rethinking the International Monetary System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1999.

"Soros' Split Personality," Foreign Affairs, 78, no. 2, 1999, 124-130.

"Preventing Bank Crises," keynote speech, conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Economic Development Institute, Lake Bluff, IL, June 1997. In Preventing Bank Crises: Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures, edited by Gerard Caprio, William Hunter, George Kaufman, and Danny Leipziger, The World Bank, 1998, 3-11.

"Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment" (with Andrew Rose), Journal of International Economics 41, no. 3/4, 351-366, 1996.  Int.Fin.Disc.Papers No.534, Federal Reserve Board.  NBER Working Paper no. 5437Jan. 1996.

"Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets" (with Andrew Rose), written for the International Economics Department of the World Bank, Oct.1995.