“Are Leading Indicators Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis,” with George Saravelos, in Journal of International Economics 87, no.2, July 2012, pp. 216-31; Online Appendix, 2012. NBER WP 16047; HKS RWP 11-024; M-RCBG WP 2011-07. Summary at VoxEU, 2010.
"Does Openness to Trade Make Countries Less Vulnerable to Sudden Stops? Using Gravity to Establish Causality", with Eduardo Cavallo, Journal of International Money and Finance 27, Issue 8, Dec.2008, 1430-1452. NBER WP No.10957; HKS WP 2007.
"Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, 52, no.2, 2005. The Mundell Fleming Lecture, Nov, 5, 2004, IMF 5th Annual Research Conference. HKS RWP 05-017; NBER WP No.11508.
[Data on fate of political leaders after devaluations & promises. Yr.byYr summary.]
“Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons,” with Shang-Jin Wei, World Bank, Washington DC. NBER WP no. 10907. In Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide, edited by Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto (Cambridge Univ. Press), 2005. Paperback, 2010. Tables & Figures. Russian translation of summary, ADB, 2009.
Edited books from University of Chicago Press (Chicago):
Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, with Michael Dooley, 2003.
Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, with Sebastian Edwards, 2002.
"Coping with Crises in Emerging Markets: Adjustment versus Financing," in Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System, edited by Peter Kenen and Alexander Swoboda (International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.), 2001. Reprinted in Perspectives in Global Finance, Dilip Das, ed. (Routledge, NY), 2003.
"International Lender of Last Resort," from Rethinking the International Monetary System, edited by Jane Sneddon Little and Giovanni P. Olivei, Vol. 43 (University Press of the Pacific), 1999.
"Soros' Split Personality," Foreign Affairs, 78, no. 2, 1999, 124-130.
"Preventing Bank Crises," in Preventing Bank Crises: Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures, edited by Gerard Caprio, William Hunter, George Kaufman, and Danny Leipziger (The World Bank), 1998, 3-11. Keynote speech, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Economic Development Institute, Lake Bluff, IL, June 1997.
"Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment," with Andrew Rose, Journal of International Economics 41, no. 3/4, 351-366, 1996. Int.Fin.Disc.Papers No.534, Federal Reserve Board. NBER Working Paper no. 5437.
"Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets", with Andrew Rose, written for the International Economics Department of the World Bank, Oct.1995.