The Euro

Causes of Eurozone Crises,”  in,  Causes of Eurozone crises past and future, a VoxEU eBook co-edited by Richard Baldwin & Francesco Giavazzi (CEPR: London), July 2015.

 The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?” pdf,  published  in Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, issue 3, May/June 2015.  HKS RWP15-015.  

"Over-optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone," with Jesse Schreger2013  in  Review of World Economy (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 149, no.2, pp.247-272.. Online appendix, Sept.2012.  NBER WP 18283, Aug. 2012.  Data on EU countries' official forecasts in Stata or csvdescription.     Data set in Stata & Excel (with "Read me")

"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," in  Oxford Review of Economic Policy  Vol. 27, Issue 4, 536-562, 2011.  Final draft, July 2011.  NBER WP 17239, 2011.  Data on official forecasts among EU countries inStata or csvdescription.

“The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade:  Why are They Below Historical Evidence on Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?” in Europe and the Euroedited by Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi (University of Chicago Press), 2009.  WCFIA WP 2009-008;   Dataset.   NBER WP 14542.    HKS video.  RWP08-076, Harvard Kennedy School.   Slides, NBER conference, Oct. 2008.   Slides, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.  Earlier version, “The estimated effects of the euro on trade” presented at 14th Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Croatia, 2008.   

Comments on “The euro: It can’t happen, It’s a bad idea, It won’t last. U.S. economists on the EMU, 1989-2002,” by Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea.  Euro at 10: Reflections on American Views, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, January 3, 2009. 

[McKinsey Executive Roundtable Series in International Economics: The Euro at 10: State of the Union, 1-hour video, Council on Foreign Relations, May 15, 2009.]

Should Central European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” conference on Common Currency and Its Future Lesson for the New Member States, National Bank of Poland, 2008.   Appears in Report on Poland's Full Membership in the 3rd Stage of the Economic and Monetary Union (Warsaw).    

“The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency,” with Menzie Chinn,International Finance (Blackwill Publishers) 11, no. 1, 2008.

My comments on  "The Euro's Trade Effects," ECB WP 594, March 2006, by Richard Baldwin.  For What Effects is EMU Having on the Euro Area and its Member Countries?" conference at ECB, Frankfurt, June 2005.

"Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?" with Menzie Chinn, in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida (University of Chicago Press), 2007.   NBER WP No. 11508. 

"Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU",    in  Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges,  edited by Susan Schadler (IMF: Washington DC), 2005

"The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations," in Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics (H.M. Treasury: London), 2003, p.99-109.  

“Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” A background report for theCommission on The UK Outside the Euro, Oct.2002.  ["Leading economists urge UK to join euro," BBC,6 June, 2001.]

"EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective," for EMU Watch Series, DB Research, presented at Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000; and the Lucchini Foundation, Brescia, June 22, 2000.  In Italian in Europe: What Future After the Euro? (Laterza & Figli SpA, Rome).

"On the Euro: Impacts on Members and Non-Members," and "Keynote Address," The European Conference Centre, Luxembourg, 3-4 December 1998. Published in The Euro as a Stabilizer in the International Economic System, Armand Clesse, editor, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell MA, 1999.

"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criterion," NBER WP 5700. with Andrew Rose, The Economic Journal, vol. 108, no. 449, July 1998, 1009-1025.  Reprinted in Swedish Economic Policy Review 4, 1997, 487-512.   To be reprinted also in The Political Economy of Monetary Union, edited by Paul DeGrauwe, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publ.), 2001.

"'Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht'; Comments on Buiter, Corsetti & Roubini," Economic Policy 16, April 1993, 92-97 (Centre for Economic Policy Research, London).

"The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?" with Steve Phillips, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 44 (1992), 791-816.