“Causes of Eurozone Crises,” in Causes of Eurozone crises: A consensus view," co-edited by Richard Baldwin & Francesco Giavazzi (CEPR: London), July 2015.
“The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?” 2015, Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, issue 3, May/June, pp.428-444. HKS RWP15-015.
"Over-optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone," with Jesse Schreger, 2013, Review of World Economy (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 149, no.2, pp.247-272. Online appendix, Sept.2012. NBER WP 18283. Data on EU countries' official forecasts in Stata or csv; description. Data set in Stata & Excel (with "Read me").
"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," 2011, in Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 27, Issue 4, 536-562. NBER WP 17239; summary in NBER Digest.
“The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why are They Below Historical Evidence on Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?” in Europe and the Euro, edited by Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi (University of Chicago Press), 2009. WCFIA WP 2009-008; Dataset. NBER WP 14542. HKS RWP08-076. Earlier version, “The estimated effects of the euro on trade,” slides presented at 14th Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Croatia, 2008.
Comments on “The euro: It can’t happen, It’s a bad idea, It won’t last. U.S. economists on the EMU, 1989-2002,” by Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea. Euro at 10: Reflections on American Views, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, January 3, 2009.
McKinsey Executive Roundtable Series in International Economics: The Euro at 10: State of the Union, 1-hour video, Council on Foreign Relations, May 15, 2009.
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In four pre-crisis publications, I suggested that the eurozone countries needed to get through a couple of decades without a major asymmetric shock, for trade patterns and cyclical correlations to have risen sufficiently to satisfy the OCA criteria:
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“Should Central European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” conference on Common Currency and Its Future Lesson for the New Member States, National Bank of Poland, 2008. Appears in Report on Poland's Full Membership in the 3rd Stage of the Economic and Monetary Union (Warsaw).
“Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar,” with Menzie Chinn, 2008, International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no.1, 49-73. Revised from "The Euro May Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency over the Next 15 Years," RWP08-016 & NBER WP 13909. Serbian transl., Panoeconomicus, vol.55, no.3, 2008, 255-78.
My comments on "The Euro's Trade Effects," ECB WP 594, March 2006, by Richard Baldwin. For What Effects is EMU Having on the Euro Area and its Member Countries?" conference at ECB, Frankfurt, June 2005.
“Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?” with Menzie Chinn, 2007, in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida (University of Chicago Press). NBER WP No. 11510, 2005. [Data on turnover in major FX markets, 1979-2001 Excel03. ExcelWorkbook.];////////
"Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EM," in Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges, edited by Susan Schadler (IMF: Washington DC), 2005.
"The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations," in Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics (H.M. Treasury: London), 2003, p.99-109. WCFIA WP 04-01.
"Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” A background report for the Commission on The UK Outside the Euro, Oct.2002. ["Leading economists urge UK to join euro," BBC,6 June, 2001.]
"EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective," for EMU Watch Series, DB Research, presented at Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000; and the Lucchini Foundation, Brescia, June 22, 2000. In Italian in Europe: What Future After the Euro? (Laterza & Figli SpA, Rome).
"On the Euro: Impacts on Members and Non-Members," and "Keynote Address," The European Conference Centre, Luxembourg, December 1998. In The Euro as a Stabilizer in the International Economic System, Armand Clesse and Robert Mundell, editors (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell MA), 1999.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criterion," with Andrew Rose, 1998, The Economic Journal, vol. 108, no. 449, July, 1009-1025. NBER WP 5700 Reprinted in Swedish Economic Policy Review 4, 1997, 487-512. To be reprinted also in The Political Economy of Monetary Union, edited by Paul DeGrauwe, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publ.), 2001.
“The Integration of Secondary Equity Markets in Europe, and the Barriers Posed by Separate Currencies,” Chapter 10 ["Exchange Rates and the Single Currency"], in The European Equity Markets: The State of the Union and an Agenda for the Millennium, edited by Benn Steil (European Capital Markets Institute, Copenhagen), 1996.
“European Integration and the Regionalization of World Trade and Currencies: The Economics and the Politics,” with Shang-Jin Wei, 1995, in Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Integrated Europe, edited by Barry Eichengreen,Jeffry Frieden and Juergen von Hagen (Springer-Verlag), pp. 202-232. CIDER WP 95-53, UCB, 1995.
"'Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht'; Comments on Buiter, Corsetti & Roubini," Economic Policy 16, April 1993, 92-97 (Centre for Economic Policy Research, London).
"Financial and Currency Integration in the European Monetary System: The Statistical Record,". with Steve Phillips and Menzie Chinn, UCB, 1992.
"The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?" with Steve Phillips, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 44, 1992, 791-816.
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