Fiscal Policy

"Will fiscal stimulus overheat the US economy?"  slides, for panel (Video) at SAFE Policy Center, Leibniz Instittue, Frankfurt, April 22, 2021.

"Republicans are rediscovering the dangers of budget deficits," The Guardian, Jan. 26, 2021.

"Policy pro-cyclicality," Ppt; Macro Policy Seminar, Harvard Econ.Dept., Dec.3, 2019.  Summary.

"George HW Bush was fiscally responsible – unlike Donald Trump," The Guardian, Dec. 11, 2018.  "The lesson from George H.W. Bush’s tax reversal" VoxEU, Dec. 22, 2018.

"Fiscal Pro-cyclicality and Optimistic Forecasts," ppt or pdf, rev 5/13/2018; (Ppt or PDF with appendices), for Workshop on Fiscal Policy and Adjustment: Issues and Policy Implications, LAC, World Bank, May 9, 2018.

"Fiscal Procyclicality and Over-optimism in Official Forecasts," .Ppt or PDF, MAS Term Professor, National University of Singapore, May 22, 2017.

"Trump's Fiscal Follies," Project Syndicate, Aug. 19, 2016.  E.g., in Financial Advisor, Aug. 23, 2016.

Fiscal Procyclicality lectureOCP Policy Center, Rabat, Morocco, June 1, 2016 pptpdf.  Video also on recent global economic developments, June 2.

"Rediscovering Fiscal Policy at the G-7," Project Syndicate, May 24, 2016.  E.g., in Nikkei Asia Review, May 25.  "Fiscal Education at the G-7," Econbrowser.

“Fiscal Procyclicality and Over-optimism in Official Forecasts,” keynote presentationpdf; Conference on Fiscal Policy & the Macroeconomy, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC, May 13, 2016.  

“Fiscal Alchemy? An International Perspective,” ppt or pdf, Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy, Harvard Economics Department, April 28, 2015.

"Fiscal Procyclicality and Over-optimism in Official Forecasts," presented at Korea University, May 23; Bank of Korea, May 26; SSE in Riga, June 30, 2014, with video

"Austerity v. Stimulus," REAI Advisory Board, Apr.2014. 
Senior Executive Fellows, HKS: "Fiscal Policy: Austerity vs. Stimulus," April 2014.  "Austerity vs. Stimulus," 2013.  

"The Optimism Bias of Official Fiscal Forecasts in the Eurozone," Banca d'Italia seminar, Rome, 20 June, 2013.

"The Flawed Origins of Expansionary Austerity," Project Syndicate, May 2013. E.g., Korea Herald, May 21.   Full: "On Whose Research is the Case for Austerity Mistakenly Based?"  May 20, 2013.

Europe, You’re Down: Cyclicality and Sovereign Debt,”REAI Int.Adv.Board, Harvard Faculty Club, Nov.2012. 

"Four Magic Tricks for Aspiring Fiscal Conservatives," blog, Oct. 29, 2012.

"The Procyclicalists: Fiscal Austerity vs. Stimulus," VoxEU, Aug.7, 2012.

"The First World's Fiscal Follies," Project Syndicate, July 19, 2012.   Or "How the First World got its Keynesian Policies All Wrong," Korea Herald, July 22.  Part I: The Procyclicalists: Fiscal Austerity vs. Stimulus.   Part II. Procyclicalists Across the Atlantic Too." Economic & Fiscal Outlook," Oct.22, 2012.

Budgetary Wishful Thinking,” Project Syndicate, April 12, 2012; including Korea Herald 4/16/12.

"Fiscal Crisis Gratuitously Self-Inflicted," US News and World Report, November 2011.

"Back to School on the Budget: History & Arithmetic," Senior Executives Program, HKS, 2012; 2011.

"What Lessons Do Developing Countries Have for Fiscal Policy in the US?," slides, Stern School & India Planning Commission Workshop on Restoring Inclusive Growth,  NYU, Oct. 7-8, 2010.