"Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?" with Jesse Schreger, revised, May 2014. pdf, 1st draft, June 2013, HKS + docx.
"Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," with Jesse Schreger, Review of World Economy, 2013, vol.149, no. 2, pp.247-272; online appendix, Sept.2012. NBER WP 18283, Aug. 2012. HKS RWP12-041.
“On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” with Carlos Végh & Guillermo Vuletin, Journal of Development Economics 100, no.1, Jan. 2013, pp.32-47. NBER WP 17619, Nov. 2011. Summary: "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Escape from Procyclicality," Vox.eu, June 23, 2011.
"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol.27, Issue 4, 2011, 536-562. July 2011 draft. NBER WP 17239; Summary in NBER Digest, Nov.2011. [Featured in “Excessive Optimism in Official Budget Forecasts,” Mercatus Center, Oct.2011.]
“A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries,” Comparative Economic Studies, 53, no.3, Sept. 2011,407-430. Reprinted in Changing Lenses: Global Perspectives to Re-Develop America, edited by Joe Colombano & Aniket Shah (Palgrave Macmillan), 2013:26-50. HKS RWP11-014; "Looking to Chile for Fiscal Sanity" 2011. Short version, slides, India Planning Commission Workshop on Restoring Inclusive Growth, NYU, 2010.
“Snake-Oil Tax Cuts,” Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper 221. Presented at panel on The Economics, History, and Public Debate of Supply-Side Policies at Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, Sept.12, 2008. HKS RWP 08-056
"Responding to Crises," Cato Journal vol. 27, no. 2, Spring/Summer, 2007. Federal Reserve Policy in the Face of Crises, 24th Annual Monetary Conference, Cato Institute, Nov. 2006. slides. KSG RWP07-010.
"Could the Twin Deficits Jeopardize US Hegemony?" in Twin Deficits, Growth and Stability of the US Economy, Special Issue ofJournal of Policy Modeling, edited by Dominick Salvatore, 28, no.6, Sept. 2006, pp. 653-663.
"The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership". Published as "Bush's Spectacular Failure" [not my choice of title!] in The International Economy, XVIII, no. 2, Spring 2004.
"What Can an Economic Adviser Do When He Disagrees with the President?", Challenge, 46, no. 3., May/June 2003, pp. 1-24.
“Republican and Democratic Presidents Have Switched Economic Policies,” Milken Institute Review. vol. 5, no. 1,1st Quarter, 2003, pp. 18-25.
