Fiscal Policy

Recent Publications on Fiscal Policy

"Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?" with Jesse Schreger.  Revised: NBER WP 22349, June 2016; HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-021, pdf, May 2016.  "Fiscal Procyclicality and Over-optimism in Official Forecasts," Ppt or PDF, National University of Singapore, May 22, 2017.  "Policy pro-cyclicality," Ppt; Macro Policy Seminar, Harvard Econ.Dept., Dec.3, 2019.  Summary.

"Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," with Jesse SchregerReview of World Economy, 2013, vol.149, no. 2, pp.247-272; NBER WP 18283, 2012; HKS RWP12-041.  Data on official forecasts: in Excel,with intro note.

 “On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," with Carlos Végh & Guillermo Vuletin,  Journal of Development Economics 100, no.1, Jan. 2013, pp.32-47.  NBER WP 17619Nov. 2011.  Summary: "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Escape from Procyclicality,", June 23, 2011.

A Solution to Fiscal ProcyclicalityThe Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,” 2013, in Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edited by Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí, Series on Central Banking Analysis, and Economic Policies, vol.17,pp.323-391. 

"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications,"  Oxford Review of Economic Policy  Vol.27, Issue 4, 2011, 536-562.  NBER WP 17239;  Summary in NBER Digest, Nov.2011.   [Featured in “Excessive Optimism in Official Budget Forecasts,” Mercatus Center, Oct.2011.]
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