“Black Swans: A Comment on ‘Financial Cycles: What? How? When?’ by Claessens, Kose and Terrones”

Citation:

Frankel. “Black Swans: A Comment on ‘Financial Cycles: What? How? When?’ by Claessens, Kose and Terrones”. In: Clarida R, Giavazzi F NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010. Chicago: University of Chicago Press ; 2011. pp. 351-355.

Abstract:

What does “black swan” really mean?   In my view, it should refer to an event that is considered virtually impossible by those whose frame of reference is limited in time span and geographical area, but that is well within the probability distribution for those whose data set includes other countries and other decades or centuries. 

Last updated on 09/18/2017