@workingpaper {201786,
	title = {Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?},
	journal = {NBER Working Papers},
	number = {22309},
	year = {Working Paper},
	month = {2016},
	abstract = {
	Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For example, euro area governments during the period 1999-2007 assiduously and inaccurately avoided forecasting deficit levels that would exceed the 3\% Stability and Growth Pact threshold; meanwhile private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, the budget-making process could probably be improved by using private-sector forecasts.\&nbsp;

},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w22349},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Jesse Schreger}
}
