@conference {696365,
	title = {Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes},
	year = {Working Paper},
	abstract = {
	This paper develops a new econometric framework to classify and estimate exchange rate regimes. They are classified into four distinct categories: fixed exchange rates, BBC (band, basket and crawl), managed floating, and freely floating. The procedure captures the patterns of exchange rate dynamics and the interventions by authorities under each of the regimes. We pay particular attention to the BBC and offer a new approach to parameter estimation by utilizing a three-regime Threshold Auto Regressive (TAR) model to reveal the nonlinear nature of exchange rate dynamics. We further extend our benchmark framework to allow the evolution of exchange rate regimes over time by adopting the minimum description length (MDL) principle, to overcome the challenge of simultaneous two-dimensional inference of nonlinearity in the state dimension and structural breaks in the time dimension. We apply our framework to 26 countries. The results suggest that exchange rate dynamics under different regimes are well captured by our new framework.

},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Yao Hou and Danxia Xie}
}
@unpublished {678402,
	title = {The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis},
	year = {Working Paper},
	abstract = {
	Across US counties, vaccination rates have a statistically significant downward effect on the Covid-19 death rate, as of August 7. Controlling for poverty rates, age, and temperature lowers the magnitude of the estimate a little. Using the Biden-Trump vote in the 2020 election as an instrument for vaccination rates raises the magnitude of the estimate a bit. Presumably it corrects for a positive effect of observed covid deaths on the decision to get vaccinated.\&nbsp;Overall, the beneficial effect holds up.\&nbsp; 

},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w29186},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Randy Kotti}
}
@article {635033,
	title = {The Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Economic Growth with Continuous Classification of de facto Regimes},
	year = {Working Paper},
	abstract = {We construct a new database characterizingthe de facto Exchange Rate Regime (ERR) for 145 countries during the full post-Bretton Woods period. With this new database, we firstly investigate the global changes of de facto ERRs over time, and then study the relationship between ERR and economic growth. Our findings contradict both {\textquotedblleft}corner hypothesis{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}fear of floating{\textquotedblright}. It is shown that intermediate ERR are positively related to economic growth at the greatest significance level. We also find this relationship varies among countries at different income levels, and the choice of ERRappearsto be more important for low-income countries rather than high-income ones.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Xiaonan Ma and Danxia Xie}
}
@workingpaper {629118,
	title = {A Third of a Century of Currency Expectations Data:The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium},
	year = {Working Paper},
	abstract = {For four decades economists have been finding that the forward discount is a very biased forecast of future changes in the exchange rate. The carry trade makes money, on average. For just as long, they have been debating the appropriate interpretation of the bias. Is it evidence of an exchange risk premium? Under that interpretation, a currency that sells at a forward discount does so not because it is expected to depreciate in the future but because it is perceived as risky. Using data on survey-based expectations over 32 years across 17 currencies, we reject that interpretation of the forward bias. We find that when investors sell a currency at a forward discount, it is indeed because they expect it to depreciate. But we also find concrete evidence of a risk premium, in that expected return differentials are correlated with the VIX measure of risk -- even though the risk premium can{\textquoteright}t explain forward bias. },
	author = {Menzie Chinn and Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@workingpaper {308946,
	title = {Does it Matter if Statistical Agencies Frame the CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?},
	year = {Working Paper},
	month = {2016},
	abstract = {
	When the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases new numbers, in theory it should make no difference whether the press release emphasizes the most recent 1-month number, which is what it does, or the 12-month number, as many other countries{\textquoteright} statistical agencies do. This paper offers the hypothesis that it does matter: Markets react to CPI inflation news via whichever framing the agency chooses.

},
	url = {https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=11046\&type=FN\&PersonId=15},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ayako Saiki}
}
@workingpaper {201786,
	title = {Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?},
	journal = {NBER Working Papers},
	number = {22309},
	year = {Working Paper},
	month = {2016},
	abstract = {
	Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For example, euro area governments during the period 1999-2007 assiduously and inaccurately avoided forecasting deficit levels that would exceed the 3\% Stability and Growth Pact threshold; meanwhile private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, the budget-making process could probably be improved by using private-sector forecasts.\&nbsp;

},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w22349},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Jesse Schreger}
}
@article {716576,
	title = {"The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies"},
	year = {Forthcoming},
	abstract = {
	We begin by examining determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks (size of issuing country{\textquoteright}s economy and financial markets, ability of the currency to hold value, and inertia). \&nbsp;But understanding the determination of reserve holdings probably requires going beyond the aggregate numbers, instead observing individual central bank behavior, including characteristics of the holding country (bilateral trade with the issuing country, bilateral currency peg, and proxies for bilateral exposure to sanctions), in addition to the characteristics of the reserve currency issuer. On a currency-by-currency basis, US dollar holdings are somewhat well explained by several issuer characteristics; but the other currencies are less successfully explained. It may be that the results from currency-by-currency estimation are impaired by insufficient sample size.\&nbsp; This consideration offers a motivation for pooling the data across the major currencies and imposing the constraints that reserve holdings are determined in the same way for each currency. In this setting, most economic determinants enter with significance: economic size as measured by GDP, size of financial markets as measured by foreign exchange turnover, bilateral currency peg, and bilateral trade share.\&nbsp; However, geopolitical variables (bilateral alliance, bilateral sanctions) usually do not enter with significance.

},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4749335},
	author = {Menzie Chinn and Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito}
}
@inbook {702816,
	title = {Dollar Rivals},
	booktitle = {Fifty Years of Floating},
	year = {2024},
	publisher = {Peterson Institute for International Economics},
	organization = {Peterson Institute for International Economics},
	address = {Washington, DC},
	abstract = {
	Written for a PIIE conference on the 50th anniversary of floating exchange rates, this paper deals with possible alternatives to a unipolar dollar-based system.\&nbsp; It considers (1) measures of international currency use; (2) potential challengers to the dollar; (3) network externalities; and (4) the plausibility of gold and digital currencies, as alternatives to regular currencies.\&nbsp; On the one hand, network externalities operate in favor of the status quo: the dollar as the single leading international currency.\&nbsp; On the other hand, abuse of exorbitant privilege {\textendash} which now includes not just debasing the currency but also excessive use of sanctions {\textendash} operates in favor of challengers.\&nbsp; A good guess is that the dollar will continue to lose market share slowly to others, but will remain in the lead.

},
	url = {https://cup.columbia.edu/book/floating-exchange-rates-at-fifty/9780881327496},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {713351,
	title = {"Is the language of rights useful for reducing poverty?"},
	booktitle = { Making a Movement: The History and Future of Human Rights},
	year = {2023},
	pages = {55-56},
	publisher = {Carr Center for Human Rights},
	organization = {Carr Center for Human Rights},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	abstract = {An economst{\textquoteright}s view on international poverty and human rights, on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the valuable Universal Declaration of Human Rights:\&nbsp; The language of "rights" is useful for many things, but not for fighting poverty.},
	url = {https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/making-a-movement},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {683799,
	title = {How to Set Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets for All Countries},
	booktitle = {Combatting Climate Change},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {43-48},
	publisher = {CEPR Press, Centre for Economic Policy Research},
	organization = {CEPR Press, Centre for Economic Policy Research},
	address = {London},
	abstract = {Is a credible multilateral climate change agreement feasible? This column says that such global cooperation is necessary and attempts to address the political hurdles. The proposed emissions reduction plan develops formulas to cap atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide at 500 ppm while obeying political constraints regarding cost, fairness, and timing.\&nbsp; (Subsequent research showed how to attain the target of 460 ppm.)},
	url = {https://voxeu.org/content/combatting-climate-change-cepr-collection},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Beatrice Weder di Mauro}
}
@inbook {677093,
	title = {Errors of omission vs. commission in environmental policy},
	booktitle = {Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser },
	year = {2021},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Dan Levy}
}
@inbook {673022,
	title = {Systematic Managed Floating},
	booktitle = {The Asian Monetary Policy Forum -- Insights for Central Banking},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {160-223},
	publisher = {World Scientific Publ. Co. Pte. Ltd,},
	organization = {World Scientific Publ. Co. Pte. Ltd,},
	address = {Singapore},
	abstract = {
	A majority of countries neither freely float their currencies nor firmly peg.\&nbsp; But most of the remainder in practice also don{\textquoteright}t obey such well-defined intermediate exchange rate regimes as target zones. \&nbsp;This paper proposes to define an intermediate regime, to be called {\textquotedblleft}systematic managed floating,{\textquotedblright} as an arrangement where the central bank regularly responds to changes in total exchange market pressure by allowing some fraction to be reflected as a change in the exchange rate and the remaining fraction to be absorbed as a change in foreign exchange reserves.\&nbsp; An operational criterion for judging systematic managed floaters is a high correlation between exchange rate changes and reserve changes.\&nbsp; The paper rejects the view that exchange rate regimes make no difference.\&nbsp; In regressions to test effects on real exchange rates, we find that positive external shocks tend to cause real appreciation for most systematic managed-floaters; more strongly so for pure floaters; and not at all for most firm peggers.\&nbsp; Two measures of exogenous external shocks are used:\&nbsp; (i) for commodity-exporters, a country-specific index of global prices of the export commodities and (ii) for other Asian emerging market economies, the VIX.\&nbsp; 

},
	url = {https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/wsiwsbook/12323.htm},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Bernard Yeung and Davis, Stephen and Edward Robinson}
}
@article {629055,
	title = {Should the Fed Be Constrained?},
	journal = {Cato Journal},
	volume = {39},
	number = {2},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019},
	abstract = {Two distinct questions concern the desirability of constraints on the monetary authorities. (1) To what extent should the central bank be constrained, versus being allowed full discretion? (2) To whatever extent it is to be constrained, should it be by a rule and if so what rule? With respect to the second question, a good argument for Nominal GDP targeting is that it is robust with respect to supply shocks, whereas CPI targets, for example, are vulnerable to them. But with respect to the first question, I am increasingly convinced that the constraint {\textendash} whether a NGDP target or something else {\textendash} must be very loose. Even the most sincere of central bankers will often fail to hit their targets, due to unforeseen shocks. I therefore propose only a mild innovation: the FOMC could include nominal GDP in its Summary of Economic Projections. A final thought concerns a different kind of constraint: if Fed independence from political influence is compromised, monetary policy will likely become more pro-cyclical.},
	url = {https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/should-fed-be-constrained },
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {542636,
	title = {Systematic Managed Floating},
	journal = {Open Economies Review},
	volume = {30},
	number = {2},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {255-295},
	abstract = {A majority of countries neither freely float their currencies nor firmly peg. But most of the remainder in practice also don{\textquoteright}t obey such well-defined intermediate exchange rate regimes as target zones. This paper proposes to define an intermediate regime, to be called {\textquotedblleft}systematic managed floating,{\textquotedblright} as an arrangement where the central bank regularly responds to changes in total exchange market pressure by allowing some fraction to be reflected as a change in the exchange rate and the remaining fraction to be absorbed as a change in foreign exchange reserves. An operational criterion for judging systematic managed floaters is a high correlation between exchange rate changes and reserve changes. The paper rejects the view that exchange rate regimes make no difference. In regressions to test effects on real exchange rates, we find that positive external shocks tend to cause real appreciation for most systematic managed-floaters; more strongly so for pure floaters; and not at all for most firm peggers. Two measures of exogenous external shocks are used: (i) for commodity-exporters, a country-specific index of global prices of the export commodities and (ii) for other Asian emerging market economies, the VIX.},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w23663},
	author = {J. Frankel}
}
@inbook {510696,
	title = {The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically​},
	booktitle = {Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies },
	year = {2019},
	pages = {149-182},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	organization = {Oxford University Press},
	address = {Oxford},
	abstract = {\&nbsp;The paper proposes an exchange rate regime for oil-exporting countries.\&nbsp; The goal is to achieve the best of both flexible and fixed exchange rates.\&nbsp; The arrangement is designed to deliver monetary policy that counteracts rather than exacerbates the effects of swings in the oil market, while yet offering the day-to-day transparency and predictability of a currency peg.\&nbsp; The proposal is to peg the national currency to a basket, but a basket that includes not only the currencies of major trading partners (in particular, the dollar and the euro), but also the export commodity (oil).\&nbsp; The plan is called Currency-plus-Commodity Basket (CCB).\&nbsp; The paper begins by fleshing out the need for an innovative arrangement that allows accommodation to trade shocks.\&nbsp; The analysis provides evidence from six Gulf countries that periods when their currencies were {\textquotedblleft}undervalued{\textquotedblright}, in the sense that the actual foreign exchange value lay below what it would have been under the CCB proposal, were periods of overheating as reflected in high inflation and of external imbalance as reflected in high balance of payments surpluses.\&nbsp; Conversely, periods when the currencies were {\textquotedblleft}overvalued,{\textquotedblright} in the sense that their foreign exchange value lay above what it would have been under CCB, featured unusually low inflation and low balance of payments. \&nbsp;The implication is that the economy would have been more stable under CCB.\&nbsp; The last section of the paper offers a practical blueprint for detailed implementation of the proposal.\&nbsp;},
	author = {J. Frankel},
	editor = {Hoda Selim and Kamiar Mohaddes and Jeffrey Nugent}
}
@inbook {604659,
	title = {Monetary Regimes to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Two Proposals},
	booktitle = {Rethinking the Macroeconomics of Resource-Rich Countries },
	year = {2018},
	publisher = {CEPR},
	organization = {CEPR},
	address = {London},
	abstract = {What monetary regime should commodity-exporting developing countries adopt?\&nbsp; On the one hand, it is desirable to let the currency appreciate (depreciate) in response to positive (negative) terms of trade shocks.\&nbsp; Such accommodation is precluded if the exchange rate is fixed or if the CPI is targeted literally.\&nbsp; On the other hand, countries need some sort of nominal anchor.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Monetary policy can be made automatically more counter-cyclical, judged by the criterion of currency appreciation in reaction to positive terms-of-trade shocks, under either of two regimes.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Peggers can add the export commodity to a currency basket (CCB, for {\textquotedblleft}Currency-plus-Commodity Basket{\textquotedblright}).\&nbsp; Others can target Nominal Income instead of the CPI.},
	url = {https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/frankel/files/commoditymproposals2018cepr.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Rabah Arezki and Raouf Boucekkine}
}
@inbook {445091,
	title = {How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Three Proposals},
	booktitle = {Rethinking the Macroeconomics of Resource-Rich Countries},
	year = {2018},
	note = {Keynote address, Bank of Algeria, Algiers, May 28-29, 2016.},
	publisher = {Centre for Economic Policy Research},
	organization = {Centre for Economic Policy Research},
	address = {London},
	abstract = {Countries that specialize in commodities have in recent years been hit by high volatility in world prices for their exports. This paper suggests three ways that commodity-exporters can make themselves less vulnerable. (1) They can use option contracts to hedge against short-term declines in the commodity price without giving up the upside, as Mexico has shown. (2) Commodity-linked bonds can hedge longer-term risk, and often have a natural ultimate counter-party in multinational corporations that depend on the commodity as an input. (3) The well-documented pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy among commodity exporters can be reduced by insulating official forecasters against optimism bias, as Chile has shown. },
	url = {https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/frankel/files/commodity3proposals2018cepr.pdf},
	author = {J. Frankel},
	editor = {Rabah Arezki and Raouf Boucekkine.}
}
@inbook {585076,
	title = {German Ordoliberals Vs. American Pragmatists: What Did They Get Right or Wrong in the Euro Crisis?},
	booktitle = {Ordoliberalism: A German Oddity?},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {135-143},
	publisher = {Centre for Economic Policy Research},
	organization = {Centre for Economic Policy Research},
	address = {London},
	abstract = {
	The editors of this volume explore the philosophical conflict between German Ordoliberalism and Anglo-Saxon or American pragmatism.\&nbsp; This chapter asks which of these two approaches got which questions right with respect to the euro.\&nbsp; In advance, the ordos correctly identified the problem of moral hazard in national fiscal policy, while the pragmatists correctly identified the problem that asymmetric shocks would create when national monetary policy was no longer available to respond to them.\&nbsp; When the euro crisis hit in 2010, the ordos pointed out the importance of structural conditionality while the pragmatists were right to emphasize that fiscal austerity was highly contractionary and even worsened debt/GDP ratios. 

},
	url = {http://voxeu.org/content/ordoliberalism-german-oddity},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Thorsten Beck and Hans-Helmut Kotz}
}
@inbook {445101,
	title = {Globalization and Chinese Growth: Ends of Trends?},
	booktitle = {Il Grande Sconvolgimento},
	year = {2017},
	note = {HKS RWP 16-029, July 2016. \&nbsp;Delivered at a conference celebrating the 40th anniversary of Prometeia, in Bologna, 26 November, 2015.},
	publisher = {il Mulino },
	organization = {il Mulino },
	address = {Bologna},
	abstract = {Two big questions look somewhat different than they did 10 or 20 years ago.\&nbsp; First: would the long-term trend of globalization continue?\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Contrary to all predictions, trade growth has slowed markedly since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09.\&nbsp; But the feared increase in protectionism did not materialize, so one must look elsewhere for explanations.\&nbsp; Two likely factors behind the slowdown in trade are a maturing of global supply chains and a slowdown in trade-intensive physical investment.\&nbsp;\&nbsp;Second, would the rapid growth of emerging market economies (EMEs) continue, and which ones?\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Most EMEs recovered strongly in 2010-11, but now seem to be slowing down in a more long-lasting way.\&nbsp;For both these issues the role of China is crucial, since it now carries so much weight in the global economy.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Breathless reports in 2014 that the Chinese economy had overtaken the US economy as the world{\textquoteright}s largest (measured by Purchasing Power Parity) were followed rapidly in 2015 by breathless reports that its economy was failing.\&nbsp; That China has slowed down from past growth rates of 10\% to a more moderate rate of 7\% or lower should not have come as a surprise.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; It is part of a natural process of long-term convergence and involves a {\textquotedblleft}rebalancing{\textquotedblright} of the economy from manufacturing into services that is desirable, even if it means a loss of export markets for some others.\&nbsp; The open question is whether the Chinese transition to a more moderate and sustainable growth path will take the form of a hard landing or a soft landing.},
	author = {J. Frankel},
	editor = {Paolo Onofri}
}
@journal {286676,
	title = {Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries},
	journal = {Research in Economics},
	volume = {71},
	number = {3},
	year = {2017},
	note = {
	NBER WP 20898, Jan. 2015.

},
	abstract = {
	The revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We consider the case for NGDP targeting for mid-sized developing countries, in light of their susceptibility to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting splits the impact of supply shocks automatically between inflation and real GDP growth. In the case of annual inflation targeting (IT), by contrast, the full impact of an adverse supply shock or terms of trade shock is felt as a loss in real GDP alone. NGDP targeting automatically accommodates supply shocks as most central banks with discretion would do anyway, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations as rules are designed to do. We outline a simple theoretical model and derive the condition under which an NGDP targeting regime would dominate other regimes such as annual IT for achieving objectives of output and price stability. We go on to estimate for the case of India the parameters needed to ascertain whether the condition holds, particularly the slope of the aggregate supply curve. Estimates suggest that the condition may indeed hold.

},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/NGDPT-\%20IndiaPBJF2015.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Pranjul Bhandari}
}
@magazinearticle {445086,
	title = {Liberalism},
	journal = {"The Age of Reflection" (in English and Persian).},
	volume = {2},
	number = {10},
	year = {2016},
	month = {Jan 2016},
	pages = {3-6},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {442046,
	title = {International Coordination},
	booktitle = {Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy},
	year = {2016},
	publisher = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco},
	organization = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco},
	address = {San Francisco},
	abstract = {After a 30-year absence, calls for international coordination of macroeconomic policy are back. This time the issues go by names like currency wars, taper tantrums, and fiscal compacts. In traditional game theory terms, the existence of spillovers may imply that countries are better off if they coordinate policies than under the Nash non-cooperative equilibrium. But what is the nature of the spillover and the coordination? The paper interprets recent macroeconomic history in terms of four possible frameworks for proposals to coordinate fiscal policy or monetary policy: the locomotive game, the discipline game, the competitive depreciation game (currency wars) and the competitive appreciation game. [The paper also considers claims that monetary coordination has been made necessary by the zero lower bound among advanced countries or financial imperfections among emerging markets.] Perceptions of the sign of spillovers and proposals for the direction of coordination vary widely. The existence of different models and different domestic interests may be as important as the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria. In some cases complaints about foreigners{\textquoteright} actions and calls for cooperation may obscure the need to settle disagreements domestically.},
	url = {http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/Jeffrey-Frankel-Nov20.pdf},
	author = {J. Frankel}
}
@inbook {442086,
	title = {The Plaza Accord, 30 Years Later},
	booktitle = {Currency Policy Then and Now: 30th Anniversary of the Plaza Accord},
	year = {2016},
	publisher = {Peterson Institute for International Economics},
	organization = {Peterson Institute for International Economics},
	address = {Washington, DC},
	abstract = {The paper reviews an event of 30 years ago from the perspective of today: \&nbsp;a successful G-5 initiative to reverse what had been a dangerously overvalued dollar.\&nbsp; The {\textquotedblleft}Plaza Accord{\textquotedblright} is best viewed not as the precise product of the meeting on September 22, 1985, but as shorthand for a historic change in US policy that began when James Baker became Treasury Secretary in January of that year. \&nbsp;The change had the desired effect, bringing down the dollar and reducing the trade deficit. \&nbsp;In recent years concerted foreign exchange intervention, of the sort undertaken by the G-7 in 1985 and periodically over the subsequent decade, has died out.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Indeed the G-7 in 2013, fearing {\textquotedblleft}currency manipulation,{\textquotedblright} specifically agreed to refrain from intervention in a sort of {\textquotedblleft}anti-Plaza accord.{\textquotedblright}\&nbsp; But the day will come when coordinated foreign exchange intervention is again appropriate.},
	url = {www.nber.org/papers/w21813  },
	author = {J. Frankel}
}
@inbook {308966,
	title = {Mauritius: African Success Story},
	booktitle = {African Successes},
	volume = {4},
	year = {2016},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago},
	abstract = {\&nbsp; \&nbsp; \&nbsp;Mauritius is a top performer among African countries. It developed a manufacturing sector soon after independence and has managed to respond well to new external shocks. What explains this success? This paper draws on the history of the island, the writings of foreign economists, the ideas of locals, and the results of econometric tests. Mauritius has mostly followed good policies. They include: creating a well-managed Export Processing Zone, conducting diplomacy regarding trade preferences, spending on education, avoiding currency overvaluation, and facilitating business. The good policies can in turn be traced back to good institutions. They include: forswearing an army, protecting property rights (particularly non-expropriation of sugar plantations), and creating a parliamentary structure with comprehensive participation (in the form of representation for rural districts and ethnic minorities, the {\textquotedblleft}best loser system,{\textquotedblright} ever-changing coalition governments, and cabinet power-sharing). But from where did the good institutions come? They were chosen around the time of independence in 1968. Why in Mauritius and not elsewhere? Luck?\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Some fundamental geographic and historical determinants of trade and rule of law help explain why average income is lower in Africa than elsewhere, and trade and rule of law help explain performance within Africa just as they do worldwide. Despite these two econometric findings, the more fundamental determinants are not much help in explaining relative performance within Africa. Fundamental determinants that work worldwide but not within Africa are remoteness, tropics, size and fragmentation. (Access to the sea is the one fundamental geographic determinant of trade and income that is always important.) A case in point is the high level of ethnic diversity in Mauritius, which in many places would make for dysfunctional politics. Here, however, it brings cosmopolitan benefits. The institutions manage to balance the ethnic groups; none is excluded from the system. It is intriguing that the three African countries with the highest governance rankings (Mauritius, Seychelles and Cape Verde) are all islands that had no indigenous population. It helps that everyone came from somewhere else.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Sebastian Edwards and Simon Johnson and David Weil}
}
@magazinearticle {647081,
	title = {Misinterpreting Chinese Intervention in Financial Markets},
	journal = { China-US Focus},
	year = {2015},
	url = {https://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/misinterpreting-chinese-intervention-in-financial-markets/},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@journal {445106,
	title = {International Seminar on Macroeconomics},
	journal = {special issue of Journal of International Economics},
	volume = {96},
	number = {S1},
	year = {2015},
	note = {JIE\&nbsp;issue. \&nbsp;Contents. \&nbsp;NBER paper summaries.},
	editor = {J. Frankel and Helene Rey and Andrew Rose}
}
@article {308956,
	title = {China is Not Yet Number One},
	journal = {Frontiers of Economics in China},
	volume = {10},
	number = {1},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {1-6},
	abstract = {Many claim that China will soon overtake the US. I argue that this claim is based on a misuse of statistics. The International Comparison Program (ICP) price data is necessary to compare living standards, since a dollar{\textquoteright}s worth of yuan buys more in China than a dollar buys in the US. But the fact that rice and clothes are cheap in rural China does not make the Chinese economy larger. What matters for size in the world economy is how much a yuan can buy on world markets. Using the correct prices, the US remains the world{\textquoteright}s largest economic power by a substantial margin.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ChinaNo1FEC-2015-1-1.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {308951,
	title = {Congress, China and Currency Manipulation},
	journal = {China-US Focus},
	volume = {6},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {36-38},
	url = {http://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/congress-china-and-currency-manipulation/},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {308961,
	title = {The Euro Crisis: Where to From Here?},
	journal = {Journal of Policy Modeling},
	volume = {37},
	number = {3},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {428-444},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {308936,
	title = {The Plaza Accord, 30 Years Later},
	booktitle = {Conference on the Plaza Accord at the Baker Institute for Public Policy},
	year = {2015},
	month = {1 October},
	address = {Rice University},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {308941,
	title = {Program Report},
	journal = {International Finance and Macroeconomics, National Bureau of Economic Research},
	number = {2},
	year = {2015},
	url = {http://nber.org/programs/ifm/ifm.html},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {308971,
	title = {Become an International Economist, See the World},
	booktitle = {Eminent Economists II },
	year = {2014},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press },
	organization = {Cambridge University Press },
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Lall Ramrattan and Michael Szenberg}
}
@article {308976,
	title = {Nominal GDP Targeting for Middle-Income Countries},
	journal = {Central Bank Review},
	volume = {14},
	number = {3},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1-14},
	abstract = {It has been proposed that central banks should target Nominal GDP (NGDP), as an alternative to targeting the money supply, exchange rate, or inflation. But the proposal appears in the context of the largest advanced economies. In fact NGDP Targeting may be more appropriate for middle-sized middle-income countries. The reason is that such countries are more often subject to large supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. Such unexpected shocks can force the credibility-damaging abandonment of CPI targets or exchange rate targets that had been previously declared. But they do not require the abandonment of a nominal GDP target, which automatically divides an adverse supply shock equally between impacts on inflation and real GDP. The argument can be illustrated in a model where the ultimate objective is minimizing a quadratic loss function in output and inflation but a credible rule is needed in order to prevent an inflationary bias that arises under discretion. A NGDP rule dominates IT unless the Aggregate Supply curve is especially steep or the weight placed on price stability is especially high. Parameters estimated for the cases of India and Kazakhstan suggest that the Aggregate Supply curve is flat enough to satisfy the necessary condition. The general argument applies regardless whether the monetary authorities at a particular time seek credible disinflation, credible reflation, or simply a credible continuation of the recent path.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/NGDPtargtsMidIncomeCsMarJu.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {308981,
	title = {Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets},
	journal = {Climate Change Economics},
	volume = {5},
	number = {3},
	year = {2014},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17669},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Valentina Bosetti}
}
@article {286661,
	title = {Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" model of Commodity Prices},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {42},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {88-112},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {464316,
	title = {On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality},
	journal = {Journal of Development Economics 100},
	volume = {100},
	number = {1},
	year = {2013},
	month = {Jan 2013},
	pages = {32-47.},
	abstract = {In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, a-cyclical fiscal policies in sharp contrast to emerging and developing countries that have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating the underlying business cycle. We show that, over the last decade, about a third of the developing world has been able to escape the procyclicality trap and actually become countercyclical. We trace this critical shift in fiscal policy to the quality of institutions. We provide a formal analysis, which controls for the endogeneity of institutions and other determinants of fiscal procyclicality, that strongly suggests that there is a causal link running from stronger institutions to less procyclical or countercyclical fiscal policy.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Carlos V{\'e}gh and Guillermo Vuletin}
}
@inbook {286646,
	title = {A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile},
	booktitle = {Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance},
	volume = {17},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {323-391},
	publisher = {Central Bank of Chile},
	organization = {Central Bank of Chile},
	address = {Santiago},
	abstract = {
	\&nbsp; \&nbsp; \&nbsp;Historically, many countries have suffered a pattern of procyclical fiscal policy: spending too much in booms and then forced to cut back in recessions. This problem has especially plagued Latin American commodity exporters. Since 2000, fiscal policy in Chile has been governed by a structural budget rule that has succeeded in implementing countercyclical fiscal policy. Official estimates of trend output and the 10-year price of copper {\textendash} which are key to the decomposition of the budget into structural versus cyclical components {\textendash} are made by expert panels and thus insulated from the political process. Chile{\textquoteright}s fiscal institutions hold useful lessons everywhere, but especially in other commodity exporting countries.



	\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp; This paper finds statistical support for a series of hypotheses regarding forecasts by official agencies that have responsibility for formulating the budget. 1) Official forecasts of budgets and GDP in a 33-country sample are overly optimistic on average. 2 )The bias is stronger at longer horizons 3) The bias is greater among European governments that are politically subject to the budget rules. \&nbsp;4) The bias is greater in booms. 5) In most countries, the real growth rate is the key macroeconomic input for budget forecasting. 6) In Chile it this the real price of copper. 7) Chile has avoided the problem of overly optimistic official forecasts. The conclusion: official forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, if not insulated from politics, and the problem can be worse when the government is formally subject to budget rules. The key innovation that has allowed Chile to achieve countercyclical fiscal policy in general, and to run surpluses in booms in particular, is not just a structural budget rule in itself, but a regime that entrusts to independent expert panels responsibility for estimating long-run trends in copper prices and GDP.\&nbsp;

},
	url = {http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/banca-central/pdf/v17/Vol17_323_391.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Luis Felipe C{\'e}spedes and Jordi Gal{\'\i}}
}
@conference {196331,
	title = {The Future of the Currency Union},
	booktitle = {The Challenges of the Euro Crisis},
	volume = {Academic Consultants Meeting},
	year = {2013},
	month = {2013},
	publisher = {Harvard Kennedy School},
	organization = {Harvard Kennedy School},
	address = {Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System},
	abstract = {This note attempts a concise yet comprehensive overview of the crisis still facing the eurozone, in the areas of competitiveness, fiscal policy, and banking.\&nbsp; The euro{\textquoteright}s founding documents enshrined such principles as fiscal constraints, the {\textquotedblleft}no bailout clause,{\textquotedblright} and assignment to the ECB of the goal of low inflation to the exclusion of monetizing national debts.\&nbsp; Those principles have been permanently compromised. \&nbsp;On the one hand, German taxpayers cannot be expected to agree to bailouts of profligate euro members without end.\&nbsp; On the other hand, if they were to insist on those founding principles, the euro would not survive.\&nbsp; It is especially important to recognize that the (predictable) impact of fiscal austerity has been to reduce output in the periphery countries, not raise it, and thereby to raise debt/GDP ratios, not lower them.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; The leaders have finally taken some steps in the right direction over the last year:\&nbsp; movement toward a banking union; more adjustment time for Greece, Portugal and Spain; and ECB bond purchases.\&nbsp; But much adjustment still lies ahead: more debt-reduction (painful for the creditor North) and more internal devaluation (even more painful for the uncompetitive South). \&nbsp;The eurozone will endure, but through a lost decade of growth.\&nbsp; As to a long-run fiscal regime that addresses the now-exacerbated problem of moral hazard, the Fiscal Compact is not enough in itself.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Two innovations favored by the author are the red-bonds/blue-bonds proposal and the delegation of forecasting to independent fiscal agencies.},
	url = {https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/citation.aspx?PubId=9004\&type=FN\&PersonId=15},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196361,
	title = {Over-Optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone},
	journal = {Review of World Economy },
	volume = {149},
	number = {2},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {247-272},
	author = {Jesse Schreger}
}
@article {309021,
	title = {Product Price Targeting -- A New Improved Way of Inflation Targeting},
	journal = {MAS Monetary Review},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {2-5},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {286681,
	title = {What Small Countries Can Teach the World},
	journal = {Business Economics},
	volume = {47},
	number = {2},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {97-103},
	abstract = {In the past, various great powers have taken the stage as models of economic and social development.\&nbsp; They are not the only models, however. Much can be learned from small countries which are often free to experiment with new institutions and new policies. This paper describes specific lessons that can be learned from such countries..},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198841,
	title = {Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Integration},
	volume = {27},
	number = {3},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {329-365},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197846,
	title = {Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime},
	journal = {The Handbook of Exchange Rates},
	year = {2012},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194366,
	title = {Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?},
	journal = {Open Economies Review},
	volume = {23},
	number = {2},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {213-251},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Passthru_Paper.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and David Parsley and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {194161,
	title = {Are Leading Indicators Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis},
	journal = {Journal of International Economics},
	volume = {87},
	number = {2},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {216-231},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/areleadingindicatorsuseful.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and George Saravelos}
}
@book {191626,
	title = {Global Financial Crisis},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://papers.nber.org/books/enge11-2},
	author = {Charles Engel and Kristin Forbes and Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {189161,
	title = {Economic Shocks and Their Implications for International Politics},
	journal = {Survival},
	number = {3},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/var/ezp_site/storage/fckeditor/file/pdfs/centers-programs/centers/mrcbg/publications/fwp/MRCBG_FWP_2012_05-Frankel_EconomicShocks.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {176676,
	title = {Chile{\textquoteright}s Countercyclical Triumph},
	journal = {Foreign Policy},
	number = {June},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/27/chile_s_countercyclical_triumph},
	author = {Jeffrey A. Frankel}
}
@inbook {144781,
	title = {The Natural Resource Curse A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions},
	booktitle = {International Monetary Fund High Level Seminar on Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries},
	year = {2012},
	month = {Sept. 2011},
	publisher = {International Monetary Fund},
	organization = {International Monetary Fund},
	address = {Washington, DC},
	abstract = {Countries with oil, mineral or other natural resource wealth, on average, have failed to show better economic performance than those without, often because of undesirable side effects. This is the phenomenon known as the Natural Resource Curse. This paper reviews the literature, classified according to six channels of causation that have been proposed. The possible channels are: (i) long-term trends in world prices, (ii) price volatility, (iii) permanent crowding out of manufacturing, (iv) autocratic/oligarchic institutions, (v) anarchic institutions, and (vi) cyclical Dutch Disease. With the exception of the first channel {\textendash} the long-term trend in commodity prices does not appear to be downward {\textendash} each of the other channels is an important part of the phenomenon. Skeptics have questioned the Natural Resource Curse, pointing to examples of commodity-exporting countries that have done well and arguing that resource exports and booms are not exogenous. The relevant policy question for a country with natural resources is how to make the best of them.},
	author = {Jeffrey A. Frankel},
	editor = {Rabah Arezki and Catherine.Patillo and M.Quintyn and Min Zhu}
}
@inbook {563856,
	title = {{\textquotedblleft}Black Swans: A Comment on {\textquoteleft}Financial Cycles: What? How? When?{\textquoteright} by Claessens, Kose and Terrones{\textquotedblright}},
	booktitle = { NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {351-355},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = { Chicago},
	abstract = {What does {\textquotedblleft}black swan{\textquotedblright} really mean?\&nbsp;\&nbsp; In my view, it should refer to an event that is considered virtually impossible by those whose frame of reference is limited in time span and geographical area, but that is well within the probability distribution for those whose data set includes other countries and other decades or centuries.\&nbsp;},
	author = {Frankel},
	editor = {Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi}
}
@article {442636,
	title = {A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile},
	journal = {Econom{\'\i}a Chilena, },
	volume = {14},
	number = {2},
	year = {2011},
	month = {Agosto 2011},
	pages = {39-78},
	abstract = {\&nbsp; \&nbsp; \&nbsp;Historically, many countries have suffered a pattern of procyclical fiscal policy: spending too much in booms and then forced to cut back in recessions. This problem has especially plagued Latin American commodity exporters. Since 2000, fiscal policy in Chile has been governed by a structural budget rule that has succeeded in implementing countercyclical fiscal policy. Official estimates of trend output and the 10-year price of copper {\textendash} which are key to the decomposition of the budget into structural versus cyclical components {\textendash} are made by expert panels and thus insulated from the political process. Chile{\textquoteright}s fiscal institutions hold useful lessons everywhere, but especially in other commodity exporting countries.
\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp; This paper finds statistical support for a series of hypotheses regarding forecasts by official agencies that have responsibility for formulating the budget. 1) Official forecasts of budgets and GDP in a 33-country sample are overly optimistic on average. 2) The bias is stronger at longer horizons 3) The bias is greater among European governments that are politically subject to the budget rules. \&nbsp;4) The bias is greater in booms. 5) In most countries, the real growth rate is the key macroeconomic input for budget forecasting. 6) In Chile it this the real price of copper. 7) Chile has avoided the problem of overly optimistic official forecasts. The conclusion: official forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, if not insulated from politics, and the problem can be worse when the government is formally subject to budget rules. The key innovation that has allowed Chile to achieve countercyclical fiscal policy in general, and to run surpluses in booms in particular, is not just a structural budget rule in itself, but a regime that entrusts to independent expert panels responsibility for estimating long-run trends in copper prices and GDP.\&nbsp;},
	url = {http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/revista-economia/2011/ago/recv14n2ago2011pp39-78.pdf},
	author = {J. Frankel}
}
@article {309916,
	title = {Politically Feasible Emission Target Formulas to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations},
	journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy},
	volume = {6},
	number = {1},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {86-109},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Valentina Bosetti}
}
@article {309026,
	title = {A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options, Including Product Price Targeting, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America},
	journal = {Economia},
	volume = {12},
	number = {1},
	year = {2011},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {286691,
	title = {Monetary Policy In Emerging Markets: A Survey},
	booktitle = {Handbook of Monetary Economics},
	volume = {3B},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {1439-1520},
	publisher = {North Holland},
	organization = {North Holland},
	address = {Amsterdam},
	abstract = {The characteristics that distinguish most developing countries, compared to large industrialized countries, include: greater exposure to supply shocks in general and trade volatility in particular, procyclicality of both domestic fiscal policy and international finance, lower credibility with respect to both price stability and default risk, and other imperfect institutions.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; These characteristics warrant appropriate models.Models of dynamic inconsistency in monetary policy and the need for central bank independence and commitment to nominal targets apply even more strongly to developing countries.\&nbsp; But because most developing countries are price-takers on world markets, the small open economy model, with nontraded goods, is often more useful than the two-country two-good model.\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp; Contractionary effects of devaluation are also far more important for developing countries, particularly the balance sheet effects that arise from currency mismatch.\&nbsp; The exchange rate was the favored nominal anchor for monetary policy in inflation stabilizations of the late 1980s and early 1990s.\&nbsp; After the currency crises of 1994-2001, the conventional wisdom anointed Inflation Targeting as the preferred monetary regime in place of exchange rate targets.\&nbsp; But events associated with the global crisis of 2007-09 have revealed limitations to the choice of CPI for the role of price index.\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp; The participation of emerging markets in global finance is a major reason why they have by now earned their own large body of research, but it also means that they remain highly prone to problems of asymmetric information, illiquidity, default risk, moral hazard and imperfect institutions.\&nbsp; Many of the models designed to fit emerging market countries were built around such financial market imperfections;\&nbsp; few economists thought this inappropriate.\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp; With the global crisis of 2007-09, the tables have turned:\&nbsp; economists should now consider drawing on the models of emerging market crises to try to understand the unexpected imperfections and failures of advanced-country financial markets.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Benjamin Friedman and Michael Woodford}
}
@article {276251,
	title = {The Curse: Why Natural Resources Are Not Always a Good Thing},
	journal = {Milken Institute Review},
	volume = {13},
	number = {4},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {28-39},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {201811,
	title = {A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries},
	journal = {Comparative Economic Studies},
	volume = {53},
	number = {3},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {407-430},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {201806,
	title = {Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications},
	journal = {Oxford Review of Economic Policy},
	volume = {27},
	number = {4},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {536-542},
	url = {http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/4/536.full?keytype=ref\&ijkey=OpHpp6w9CTp9x6t},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194476,
	title = {Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime},
	journal = {The Handbook of Exchange Rates},
	year = {2011},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194556,
	title = {Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?},
	journal = {Open Economies Review},
	volume = {22},
	number = {1},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {1-16},
	abstract = {By putting together a relatively large data set on bilateral remittances of emigrants, this paper is able to shed light on the important hypothesis of smoothing. The smoothing hypothesis is that remittances are countercyclical with respect to income in the worker{\textquoteright}s country of origin (the recipient of the remittance), while procyclical with respect to income in the migrant{\textquoteright}s host country (the sender of the remittance).\&nbsp; The econometric results confirm the hypothesis.\&nbsp;},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {192941,
	title = {Historical Precedents for the Internationalization of the RMB},
	journal = {Council on Foreign Relations \& The China Development Research Foundation},
	year = {2011},
	abstract = {The renminbi is a fresh new hopeful among the ranks of international currencies. This paper looks to history for help in evaluating the factors determining its prospects. The three best precedents in the twentieth century were the rise of the dollar from 1913 to 1945, the rise of the Deutsche mark from 1973 to 1990, and the rise of the yen from 1978 to 1991. The fundamental determinants of international currency status are economic size, confidence in the currency, and depth of financial markets. The new view is that, once these three factors are in place, internationalization of the currency can proceed quite rapidly. Thus some observers have recently forecast that the RMB may even challenge the dollar in a decade. But they underestimate the importance of the third criterion, the depth of financial markets. In principle, the Chinese government could decide to create that depth, which would require accepting an open capital account, diminished control over the domestic allocation of credit, and a flexible exchange rate. But although the Chinese government has been actively promoting offshore use of the currency since 2010, it has not done very much to meet these requirements. Indeed, to promote internationalization as national policy would depart from the historical precedents. In all three twentieth-century cases of internationalization, popular interest in the supposed prestige of having the country{\textquoteright}s currency appear in the international listings was scant, and businessmen feared that the currency would strengthen and damage their export competitiveness. Probably China, likewise, is not yet fully ready to open its domestic financial markets and let the currency appreciate, so the renminbi will not be challenging the dollar for a long time.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {192996,
	title = {Internationalization of the Renminbi: What Does History Tell us About its Precedents?},
	year = {2011},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {192121,
	title = {The Curse: Why Natural Resources Are Not Always a Good Thing},
	journal = {Milken Institute Review },
	volume = {13},
	number = {4},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {28-39},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {192131,
	title = {How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?},
	journal = {Beyond the Curse: Policies to Harness the Power of Natural Resources},
	volume = {IMF Algiers},
	year = {2011},
	abstract = {Fiscal and monetary policy each has a role to play in mitigating the volatility that stems from the large trade shocks hitting commodity-exporting countries.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; All too often macroeconomic policy is procyclical, that is, destabilizing, rather than countercyclical.\&nbsp; This paper suggests two institutional innovations designed to achieve greater countercyclicality, one for fiscal policy and one for monetary policy.\&nbsp;\&nbsp;\&nbsp; The proposal for fiscal policy is to emulate Chile{\textquoteright}s structural budget rule, and particularly its avoidance of over-optimism in forecasting.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; The proposal for monetary policy is called Product Price Targeting (PPT), an alternative to CPI-targeting that is designed to be more robust with respect to terms of trade shocks.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {189176,
	title = {A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the United States and Other Advanced Countries},
	journal = {Comparative Economic Studies},
	volume = {53},
	number = {3},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {407-430},
	abstract = {American fiscal policy has been procyclical: Washington wasted the expansion period 2001{\textendash}2007 by running budget deficits, but by 2011 had come to feel constrained by inherited debt to withdraw fiscal stimulus. Chile has achieved countercyclical fiscal policy {\textendash} saving in booms and easing in recession {\textendash} during the same decade that rich countries forgot how to do so. Chile has a rule that targets a structural budget balance. But rules are not credible by themselves. In Europe and the United States, official forecasts are overly optimistic in booms; so revenue is spent rather than saved. Chile avoids such wishful thinking by having independent panels of experts decide what is structural and what is cyclical.},
	url = {http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v53/n3/full/ces20117a.html},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {189171,
	title = {Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications},
	journal = {Oxford Review of Economic Policy},
	year = {2011},
	abstract = {The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found: (i) to have a positive average bias, (ii) to be more biased in booms, (iii) to be even more biased at the 3-year horizon than at shorter horizons. This over-optimism in official forecasts can help explain excessive budget deficits, especially the failure to run surpluses during periods of high output: if a boom is forecasted to last indefinitely, retrenchment is treated as unnecessary. Many believe that better fiscal policy can be obtained by means of rules such as ceilings for the deficit or, better yet, the structural deficit. But we also find: (iv) countries subject to a budget rule, in the form of euroland{\textquoteright}s Stability and Growth Path, make official forecasts of growth and budget deficits that are even more biased and more correlated with booms than do other countries. This effect may help explain frequent violations of the SGP. One country, Chile, has managed to overcome governments{\textquoteright} tendency to satisfy fiscal targets by wishful thinking rather than by action. As a result of budget institutions created in 2000, Chile{\textquoteright}s official forecasts of growth and the budget have not been overly optimistic, even in booms. Unlike many countries in the North, Chile took advantage of the 2002-07 expansion to run budget surpluses, and so was able to ease in the 2008-09 recession.},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17239},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@workingpaper {176706,
	title = {Barrels, Bushels, and Bonds: How Commodity-Exporters Can Hedge Volatility},
	year = {2011},
	author = {Jeffrey A. Frankel}
}
@inbook {286651,
	title = {Comments on "Credibility, Commitment and Regulation" by Dieter Helm},
	booktitle = {The Natural Resources Trap},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {325-330},
	publisher = {MIT Press},
	organization = {MIT Press},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/NaturalResourcesHogan15Ch09HelmComm325-330.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {286666,
	title = {Determination of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices},
	booktitle = {Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {9-51},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CommodityPricesRBA2009.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@article {197911,
	title = {Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	volume = {100},
	year = {2010},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Daniel Xie}
}
@article {194566,
	title = {The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {29},
	number = {3},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {585-659},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Jumana Poonawala}
}
@article {193306,
	title = {Comment on {\textquoteright}China{\textquoteright}s Current Account and Exchange Rate{\textquoteright} by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn, and Eiji Fuji},
	journal = {China{\textquoteright}s Growing Role in World Trade},
	volume = {NBER},
	year = {2010},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ChinnCheungFujiComtAug07.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193001,
	title = {The Renminbi Since 2005},
	journal = {The US-Sino Currency Dispute: New Insights From Economics, Politics, and Law},
	volume = {Centre for Economic Policy Research: London},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {51-60},
	url = {https://voxeu.org/article/win-win-proposal-let-renminbi-appreciate},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {192201,
	title = {Mauritius: African Success Story},
	booktitle = {NBER Conference on African Successes},
	year = {2010},
	month = {18-20 July},
	address = {Accra, Ghana},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {171871,
	title = {"Who Decides When the Recession Ends?"},
	journal = {National Journal Expert Blogs},
	year = {2010},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {309891,
	title = {Addressing the Leakage/Competitiveness Issue In Climate Policy Proposals},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {69-91},
	publisher = {Brookings Institution Press},
	organization = {Brookings Institution Press},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/LeakageBrookgsweditsAug.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Lael Brainard and Isaac Sorkin}
}
@inbook {309921,
	title = {An Elaborated Proposal for Global Climate Policy Architecture: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets for All Countries in All Decades},
	booktitle = {Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {31-87},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press },
	organization = {Cambridge University Press },
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins}
}
@conference {309881,
	title = {Environmental Effects of International Trade},
	booktitle = {Swedish Globalization Council},
	year = {2009},
	address = {Stockholm, Sweden},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {309886,
	title = {Global Environment and Trade Policy},
	booktitle = {Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {493-529},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press },
	organization = {Cambridge University Press },
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins}
}
@article {309911,
	title = {Targets, Timetables and Trade: How to Achieve a Successful Copenhagen},
	journal = {East Asia Quarterly},
	volume = {1 },
	number = {3},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {11-13},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198846,
	title = {What{\textquoteright}s "In" and What{\textquoteright}s "Out" in Global Money},
	journal = {Finance and Development},
	volume = {IMF},
	year = {2009},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198926,
	title = {The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	year = {2009},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Jumana Poonawala}
}
@article {197916,
	title = {New Estimation of China{\textquoteright}s Exchange Rate Regime},
	journal = {Pacific Economic Review},
	year = {2009},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {196371,
	title = {The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why are They Below Historical Evidence on Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?},
	booktitle = {Europe and the Euro},
	year = {2009},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago}
}
@article {192226,
	title = {Cape Verde and Mozambique as Development Successes in West and Southern Africa},
	journal = {NBER},
	year = {2009},
	abstract = {This paper applies an interpretation of how globalization and governance (G\&amp;G) interact with convergencegiven Cape Verde and Mozambique{\textquoteright}s particular geographical and historical contexts. We hold thatdevelopment success under globalization entails, necessarily but not exclusively, positive market perceptionsregarding the orientation and predictability of policies as well as the accompanying institutional arrangements.As such, a positive G\&amp;G interaction with respect to a comparator group can usefully be defined assuccess notwithstanding the inexistence of a universally applicable development model. In practicalterms, we first identify macro-level policy and institutional combinations underpinning successfultrade diversification (an indicator of globalization) and income convergence (an indicator of governance)in the sub-regions of West and Southern Africa. We then assess to what extent these combinationsapply to both countries using an empirical analysis. We find that trade openness drives convergenceand export diversification in Western Africa (which is becoming more diversified) while convergenceis instead driven by economic and political freedoms in Southern Africa (which is becoming morespecialized). Our empirical analysis is complemented by a case-study narrative of Cape Verde andMozambique{\textquoteright}s long-term development, which allows us to also identify the following common drivers:moving towards a market economy; opening up to regional and global trade; increasing economicand political freedom; pursing macroeconomic stability and financial reputation; ensuring policy continuity(especially in the industrial and trade sectors) and focusing on human development (especially educationand poverty reduction). Moreover, both countries reveal convergence compared to their sub-regionalpeers when looking at average GDP per capita and indicators of financial reputation and good governance.While these findings are insufficient to conclude that convergence will be sustained, the positive interactionbetween trade and financial globalization, on the one hand, and good governance and democracy, onthe other, may help explain the observed diversity of the Portuguese-speaking African community,which includes three other countries (Angola, Guinea-Bissau and S{\~a}o Tom{\'e} e Pr{\'\i}ncipe).},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w16552.pdf},
	author = {Jorge Braga de Macedo and Luis Brites Pereira}
}
@webarticle {191596,
	title = {The Global Financial Crisis: A Selective Review of Recent Research in the IFM Program},
	journal = {NBER IFM},
	year = {2009},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/programs/ifm/ifm.html},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {189231,
	title = {Eight Reasons We Are Given not to Worry about the US Deficit},
	journal = {Commission on Growth and Development},
	year = {2009},
	abstract = {The large US current account deficit over the last decade {\textendash} and the corresponding surpluses in China and elsewhere {\textendash} have been interpreted in two very different ways. Many mainstream economists view thephenomena as primarily the outcome of a low rate of national saving in the United States, beginning with a large budget deficit (the other half of the {\textquotedblleft}twin deficits.{\textquotedblright}) In this first view, the current account deficit is unsustainable, and will eventually result in a sharp depreciation of the dollar. But this unsustainability view has been challenged by a variety of other economists, with equally impeccable credentials. This paper enumerates eight arguments that they have given as to why we need not worry about the current account deficit. The paper is skeptical of all eight, and sides with the unsustainability view. But they deserve a hearing. The eight are:  1. The siblings are not twins. 2. Alleged investment boom. 3. Low U.S. private savings. 4. Global savings glut. 5. It{\textquoteright}s a big world. 6. Valuation effects pay for it. 7. Intermediation rents pay for it. 8. Bretton Woods II.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/EightReasons.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {309836,
	title = {Carried Away: Everything You Wanted to Know About the Carry Trade},
	journal = {Milken Institute Review},
	year = {2008},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CarryTradeMilkenInReview.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {308996,
	title = {The Euro is a Credible Challenger in the Wake of the Financial Crisis of 2008},
	journal = {CQ Global Researcher},
	volume = {2},
	number = {10},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {287},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CQ-globalresearcher-dollarvs.euro.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {286671,
	title = {The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices},
	booktitle = {Asset Prices and Monetary Policy},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {291-327},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CampbellM\&CPnberNov.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {278496,
	title = {South Africa: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success},
	journal = {Economics of Transition},
	volume = {16},
	number = {4},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {639-677},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0351.2008.00341.x/abstract},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and B Smit and F Sturzenegger}
}
@article {201886,
	title = {Snake-Oil Tax Cuts},
	journal = {Economic Policy Institute},
	year = {2008},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/TaxCutSnakeOilSept16-08.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197671,
	title = {Foreign Exchange},
	journal = {Concise Encyclopedia of Economics},
	volume = {Liberty Fund Inc.},
	year = {2008},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FX-ConciseEncyclSep2005.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197851,
	title = {Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexbility and Basket Weights},
	journal = {IMF Staff Papers},
	volume = {55},
	year = {2008},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/F\&W-EstDeFactoExRR-IMFSP08.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {197346,
	title = {Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria},
	booktitle = {Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV},
	year = {2008},
	address = {Central Bank of Croatia},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/EuroEffectsDubrovnikEC08.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {196376,
	title = {Should Central European Countries Join The Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria},
	booktitle = {Common Currency and Its Future Lesson for the New Member States},
	year = {2008},
	address = {National Bank of Poland},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/EuroEffectsPoland~July08.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196386,
	title = {The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency},
	journal = {International Finance},
	volume = {11},
	number = {1},
	year = {2008},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/EuroVs$-IFdebateFeb2008.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@article {194491,
	title = {Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights},
	journal = {NBER Working Paper Series},
	volume = {14016},
	year = {2008},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w14016},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {194166,
	title = {Does Openness to Trade Make Countries Less Vulnerable to Sudden Stops? Using Gravity to Establish Causality},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {27},
	number = {8},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {1530-1452},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Cavallo\&F-Openness\&SStopsJul07.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Eduardo Cavallo}
}
@article {193301,
	title = {Comments on Cline and Williamson{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteright}Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Renminbi{\textquoteright}},
	journal = {Debating China{\textquoteright}s Exchange Rate Policy },
	year = {2008},
	pages = {155-165},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ClineWilliamsonRMBcomt.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {189221,
	title = {Why the Euro will Rival the Dollar},
	journal = {International Finance},
	volume = {11},
	number = {1},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {49-73},
	abstract = {The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency,\&nbsp;much as the dollar rose to challenge the pound 70 years ago. This paper uses econometrically-estimated\&nbsp;determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world{\textquoteright}s central banks.\&nbsp;Significant factors include: size of the home country, rate of return, and liquidity in the relevant home\&nbsp;financial center (as measured by the turnover in its foreign exchange market). There is a tipping phenomenon,\&nbsp;but changes are felt only with a long lag (we estimate a weight on the preceding year{\textquoteright}s currency share\&nbsp;around .9). The equation correctly predicts out-of-sample a (small) narrowing in the gap between\&nbsp;the dollar and euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible\&nbsp;scenarios for the future. We exclude the scenario where the United Kingdom joins euroland. But\&nbsp;we do take into account of the fact that London has nonetheless become the de facto financial center\&nbsp;of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future to depreciateat the trend rate that it has shown on average over the last 20 years. The conclusion is that the euro\&nbsp;may surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency as early as 2015.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Euro\&ResChinn\&F2008IF.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@article {189211,
	title = {Could the Euro replace the Dollar as the globe{\textquoteright}s anchor currency?},
	journal = {CQ Global Researcher},
	volume = {2},
	number = {10},
	year = {2008},
	pages = {287},
	abstract = {The euro is a credible challenger to the dollar in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008.\&nbsp;},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CQ-globalresearcher-dollarvs.euro.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@workingpaper {176621,
	title = {Snake-Oil Tax Cuts},
	year = {2008},
	abstract = {This paper was written for the Economic Policy Institute, and presented at a panel on Corporate and High Income Tax Cuts and The Economy: The Economics, History, and Public Debate of Supply-Side Policies at the Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, Sept. 12, 2008.  The author would like to Imran Khan for research assistance and to thank Jack Frankel, Jeffrey Liebman, and EPI staff for useful suggestions.   Summary  Politicians have always faced the temptation to give their constituents tax cuts. But in recent decades {\textquotedblleft}conservative{\textquotedblright} presidents have enacted large tax cuts that have been anything but conservative fiscally, and have justified them by appealing to theory. In particular, they have appealed to two theories: the Laffer Proposition, which says that cuts in tax rates will pay for themselves via higher economic activity, and the Starve the Beast Hypothesis, which says that tax cuts will increase the budget deficit and put downward pressure on federal spending. It is insufficiently remarked that the two propositions are inconsistent with each other: reductions in tax rates can{\textquoteright}t increase tax revenues and reduce tax revenues at the same time. But being mutually exclusive does not prevent them both from being wrong. The Laffer Proposition, while theoretically possible under certain conditions, does not apply to US income tax rates: a cut in those rates reduces revenue, precisely as common sense would indicate. As detailed in the paper, this was the outcome of the two big experiments of recent decades: the Reagan tax cuts of 1981-83 and the Bush tax cuts of 2001-03, both of which contributed to record US budget deficits. It is also the conclusion of more systematic scholarly studies based on more extensive data. Finally, it is the view of almost all professional economists, including the illustrious economic advisers to Presidents Reagan and Bush. So thorough is the discrediting of the Laffer Hypothesis, that many deny that these two presidents or their top officials could have ever believed such a thing. But abundant quotes suggest that they did. The Starve the Beast Hypothesis claims that politicians can{\textquoteright}t spend money that they don{\textquoteright}t have. In theory, Congressmen are supposedly inhibited from increasing spending by constituents{\textquoteright} fears that the resulting deficits will mean higher taxes for their grandchildren. The theory fails on both conceptual grounds and empirical grounds. Conceptually, one should begin by asking: what it the alternative fiscal regime to which Starve the Beast is being compared? The natural alternative is the regime that was in\&nbsp;place during the 1990s, which I call Shared Sacrifice. During that time, any\&nbsp;congressman wishing to increase spending had to show how they would raise taxes to pay\&nbsp;for it. Logically, a Congressman contemplating a new spending program to benefit some\&nbsp;favored supporters will be more inhibited by fears of constituents complaining about an\&nbsp;immediate tax increase (under the regime of Shared Sacrifice) than by fears of\&nbsp;constituents complaining that budget deficits might mean higher taxes many years into\&nbsp;the future. Sure enough, the Shared Sacrifice approach of the 1990s succeeded in\&nbsp;eliminating budget deficits, and did so to a substantial degree by cutting the growth of\&nbsp;spending. Compare this outcome to the sharp increases in spending that took place when\&nbsp;President Reagan took office, when the first President Bush took office, and when the\&nbsp;
second President Bush took office. As with the Laffer Hypothesis, more systematic econometric analysis confirms the rejection that these episodes suggests. These matters are not solely of interest to historians or economists. As of the time of writing, the presidential campaign of Senator John McCain appears set to drive its wagon down the same road in which Reagan and Bush have already worn deep ruts. The candidate is apparently selling the same snake oil: he says he believes that tax cuts increase revenues. His principle policy director disavows the Laffer Principle, just as the economists who advised Presidents Reagan and Bush did. But the views of the economic advisers become irrelevant when the candidate takes office. The Queen in Alice in Wonderland said that, with practice, she was able to believe as many as six impossible things before breakfast. Most of us are more limited in our capacity for credulity. If John McCain believes both the Laffer Proposition (tax cuts raise revenues) and Starve the Beast (higher revenues lead to higher spending, anathema to conservatives), then as a good conservative, his duty is clear. He ought to run on a truly novel platform of higher tax rates! Why? Higher tax rates would reduce revenues (this is what Laffer says would happen) and thereby reduce spending (this is what Starve the Beast says would happen).  If McCain continues to propose extending the Bush tax cuts, he should at least be forced to choose between the Lafferite defense and the {\textquotedblleft}Starve the Beast{\textquotedblright} defense. Only then can the rest of us know which of the two mutually inconsistent propositions to refute.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/TaxCutSnakeOilSept16-08.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {309926,
	title = {Formulas for Quantitative Emission Targets},
	booktitle = {Architectures for Agreements: Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post-Kyoto World},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {32-56},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press },
	organization = {Cambridge University Press },
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FormulasForQuantEmissionsTargets.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Joe Aldy and Robert Stavins}
}
@article {201891,
	title = {Responding to Crises},
	journal = {Cato Journal},
	volume = {27},
	number = {2},
	year = {2007},
	url = {http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2007/5/cj27n2-6.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {196396,
	title = {Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?},
	booktitle = {G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment},
	year = {2007},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Euro\&$ResChinn\&F2007.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193316,
	title = {Assessing China{\textquoteright}s Exchange Rate Regime},
	journal = {Economic Policy},
	year = {2007},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/AssessgRMB-EcPolicy.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {192261,
	title = {On The Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate},
	journal = {South African Journal of Economics},
	volume = {73},
	number = {3},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {425-441},
	abstract = {This paper is an econometric investigation of the determinants of the real value of the South African rand over the period 1984-2007. The results show a relatively good fit. As always with exchange rate equations, there is substantial weight on the lagged exchange rate, which can be attributed to a momentum component. Nevertheless, economic fundamentals are significant and important. This is especially true of an index of the real prices of South African mineral commodities, which even drives out real income as a significant determinant. An implication is that the 2003-2006 real appreciation of the rand can be attributed to the Dutch Disease. In other respects, the rand behaves like currencies of industrialized countries with well-developed financial markets. In particular, high South African interest rates raise international demand for the rand and lead to real appreciation, controlling also for a forward-looking measure of expected inflation and a measure of default risk or country risk.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/SAJE-OnRandSept2007.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {189226,
	title = {Getting Carried Away: How the Carry Trade and Its Potential Unwinding Can Explain Movements in International Financial Markets},
	journal = {Milken Institute Review },
	year = {2007},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CarryTradeNov19-2007.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {176626,
	title = {Responding to Crises},
	journal = {Cato Journal},
	volume = {27},
	number = {2},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {165-178},
	url = {https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2007/5/cj27n2-6.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@book {144766,
	title = {World Trade and Payments: An Introduction by Richard Caves, Ronald Jones and Jeffrey Frankel},
	year = {2007},
	publisher = {Addison Wesley Longman},
	organization = {Addison Wesley Longman},
	edition = {10th},
	address = {Boston},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194501,
	title = {The Balassa-Samuelson Relationship and the Renminbi},
	journal = {KSG},
	year = {2006},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BalassaSamuelson\&ChinaRMB.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193396,
	title = {Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?},
	journal = {NICs After Asian Crisis},
	volume = {23},
	year = {2006},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/X\&GRASIANB8post.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and David Romer and Teresa Cyrus}
}
@article {193391,
	title = {On the Yuan: The Choice Between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate},
	journal = {CESifo Economic Studies (Oxford Univ. Press)},
	volume = {52},
	number = {2},
	year = {2006},
	month = {June 2006},
	pages = {246-275},
	abstract = {Fixed and flexible exchange rates each have advantages, and a country has the right to choose the regime suited to its circumstances. Nevertheless, several arguments support the view that the\&nbsp;de facto\&nbsp;dollar peg may now have outlived its usefulness for China. (i) Although foreign exchange reserves are a useful shield against currency crises, by now China{\textquoteright}s current level is fully adequate, and US treasury securities do not pay a high return. (ii) It may become increasingly difficult to sterilize the inflow over time. (iii) Although external balance could be achieved by expenditure reduction, e.g. by raising interest rates, the existence of two policy goals (external balance and internal balance) in general requires the use of two independent policy instruments (e.g. the real exchange rate and the interest rate). (iv) A large economy like China can achieve adjustment in the real exchange rate via flexibility in the nominal exchange rate more easily than via price flexibility. (v) The experience of other emerging markets points toward exiting from a peg when times are good and the currency is strong, rather than waiting until times are bad and the currency is under attack. (vi) From a longer-run perspective, prices of goods and services in China are low{\textemdash}not just low relative to the US (0.23), but also low by the standards of a Balassa{\textendash}Samuelson relationship estimated across countries (which predicts 0.36). In this specific sense, the yuan was undervalued by \~{}35 percent in 2000, and is by at least as much as that today. The study finds that, typically across countries, such gaps are corrected halfway, on average, over the subsequent decade. These six arguments for increased exchange rate flexibility need not imply a free float. China is a good counter-example to the popular {\textquotedblleft}corners hypothesis{\textquotedblright} prohibition on intermediate exchange rate regimes. However, the specific changes announced by the Chinese authorities in July 2005 have not yet resulted in a\&nbsp;de facto\&nbsp;abandonment of the dollar peg.},
	url = {http://cesifo.oxfordjournals.org/content/52/2/246.full.pdf?keytype=ref\&ijkey=AlDADutJqzAbaPj},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {192256,
	title = {Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Commodity-Based Economy: Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success},
	journal = {Economics of Transition},
	volume = {16},
	number = {4},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {679-713},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/SAfrFis\&MonCommodEcTrFeb08.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ben Smit and Federico Sturzenegger}
}
@article {189241,
	title = {Could the Twin Deficits Jeopardize US Hegemony?},
	journal = {Twin Deficits, Growth and Stability of the US Economy },
	volume = {28},
	number = {6},
	year = {2006},
	pages = {653-663},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/SalvatoreDeficitsHegemonJan26Jul+.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {189236,
	title = {Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates: An Equilibrium Model vs. a Disequilibrium Reality},
	booktitle = {BIS Annual Research Conference},
	year = {2006},
	address = {Brunnen, Switzerland},
	abstract = {The most obvious explanation for the large and widening US current account deficit is the high budget deficit and low national saving. But a variety of clever economists have come up with 8 other, more sanguine, explanations: (1) the siblings are not twins, (2) investment boom, (3) low US private savings, (4) global savings glut, (5) "It{\textquoteright}s a big world," (6) valuation effects will pay for it, (7) "Intermediation rents . . . pay for the trade deficits," and (8) China{\textquoteright}s development strategy entails accumulating unlimited dollars. The impressive paper by Caballero, Farhis, and Gourinchas falls under category (7). Their theoretical model is innovative and interesting, and has the virtue of being able to explain the current account deficit together with the anomalously low long-term interest rates during 2001-2005. The basic idea is that fast growth in emerging markets coupled with their inability to generate local store of value instruments increases their demand for saving instruments from the developed countries. More growth potential in the United States than in Europe means that a larger share of global saving flows to US assets. Ultimately, however, I am not sure that it is the correct explanation, or a reason to consider the deficits sustainable, any more than the others. Their hypothesized collapse in the desirability of emerging market assets and stagnant growth in Europe and Japan fit the 1990s fairly well. But they don{\textquoteright}t fit 2003-2006 as well, which is the puzzle period, that is, the period that featured the record US current account deficits coinciding with low long-term interest rates. Emerging markets have had a high capacity during 2003-06 to generate assets that others want. More persuasive is the hypothesis that the US continues to exploit the exorbitant privilege under which others accumulate dollars as reserves, but that this exclusive position of the dollar will not necessarily continue forever.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BISwpCmtsCaballeroFG-AuCISENR.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {622325,
	title = {Peg the Export Price Index: A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Countries},
	journal = {Journal of Policy Modeling},
	volume = {June},
	year = {2005},
	url = {https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-policy-modeling},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {309896,
	title = {Climate and Trade: Links Between the Kyoto Protocol and WTO},
	journal = {Environment},
	volume = {47},
	number = {7},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {8-19},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/KyotoGEnvir05J-pub.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {309906,
	title = {The Environment and Globalization},
	booktitle = {Globalization: What{\textquoteright}s New},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {129-169},
	publisher = {Columbia University Press},
	organization = {Columbia University Press},
	address = {New York},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Environment_and_Economic_Globalization.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Michael Weinstein}
}
@article {309901,
	title = {Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting out the Causality},
	journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
	volume = {87},
	number = {1},
	year = {2005},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Is_Trade_Good_or_Bad_for_the_Environment.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@article {196401,
	title = {Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU},
	journal = {Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries -- Opportunities and Challenges},
	year = {2005},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/RealConvergenceAndEuroAdoption.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196391,
	title = {Comments on "The Euro{\textquoteright}s Trade Effects" by Richard Baldwin},
	year = {2005},
	url = {http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp594.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194506,
	title = {On the Tenge: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for Kazakhstan},
	year = {2005},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/On\%20the\%20Tenge-KazakhM\&ExR-Frankel_r.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194356,
	title = {Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries},
	journal = {IMF Staff Papers},
	volume = {52},
	number = {2},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {149-192},
	abstract = {To update an old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the six months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless of whether the devaluation takes place in the context of an IMF program. Why are devaluations so costly? Many of the currency crises of the last 10 years have been associated with output loss. Is this, as alleged, because of excessive reliance on raising the interest rate as a policy response? More likely it is because of contractionary effects of devaluation. There are various possible contractionary effects of devaluation, but it is appropriate that the balance sheet effect receives the most emphasis. Pass-through from exchange rate changes to import prices in developing countries is not the problem: this coefficient fell in the 1990s, as a look at some narrowly defined products shows. Rather, balance sheets are the problem. How can countries mitigate the fall in output resulting from the balance sheet effect in crises? In the shorter term, adjusting promptly after inflows cease is better than procrastinating by shifting to short-term dollar debt, which raises the costliness of the devaluation when it finally comes. In the longer term, greater openness to trade reduces vulnerability to both sudden stops and currency crashes.},
	url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279560416_Mundell-Fleming_Lecture_Contractionary_Currency_Crashes_in_Developing_Countries},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194186,
	title = {Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons},
	journal = {Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner{\textquoteright}s Guide},
	year = {2005},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Managing\%20Macroeconomic\%20Crises\%20Policy\%20Lessons.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {194176,
	title = {Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries},
	journal = {NBER Working Paper Series},
	volume = {52},
	number = {2},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {149-192},
	abstract = {To update an old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the six months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless of whether the devaluation takes place in the context of an IMF program. Why are devaluations so costly? Many of the currency crises of the last 10 years have been associated with output loss. Is this, as alleged, because of excessive reliance on raising the interest rate as a policy response? More likely it is because of contractionary effects of devaluation. There are various possible contractionary effects of devaluation, but it is appropriate that the balance sheet effect receives the most emphasis. Pass-through from exchange rate changes to import prices in developing countries is not the problem: this coefficient fell in the 1990s, as a look at some narrowly defined products shows. Rather, balance sheets are the problem. How can countries mitigate the fall in output resulting from the balance sheet effect in crises? In the shorter term, adjusting promptly after inflows cease is better than procrastinating by shifting to short-term dollar debt, which raises the costliness of the devaluation when it finally comes. In the longer term, greater openness to trade reduces vulnerability to both sudden stops and currency crashes.},
	url = {https://link-springer-com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/content/pdf/10.2307\%2F30035893.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193386,
	title = {On the Renminbi},
	journal = {CESifo Forum},
	volume = {6},
	number = {3},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {16-21},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ChinaYuanpub05CES-Ifo.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@proceedings {189246,
	title = {What{\textquoteright}s Ahead: Decade of the Dollar, the Euro, or the RMB?},
	year = {2005},
	publisher = {Eurobank},
	address = {Athens, Greece},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {201896,
	title = {The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership},
	journal = {The International Economy},
	volume = {18},
	number = {2},
	year = {2004},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FlubJ23M2004-.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197676,
	title = {Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regimes},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {23},
	number = {5},
	year = {2004},
	pages = {701-734},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/GlobalTransmn-FSchmuklerServen-Oct\%202002.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler and Luis Serven}
}
@article {197856,
	title = {On the Renminbi: The Choice Between Adjustment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment Under a Flexible Rate},
	journal = {High-Level Seminar on Foreign Exchange System},
	year = {2004},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/On\%20the\%20Renminbi.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197276,
	title = {Comments on "The Euro, Stabilization Policy, and the Stability and Growth Pact" by Adam Posen},
	journal = {Conference on the Euro at Five},
	volume = {Institute for International Economics},
	year = {2004},
	url = {http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/frankel0204.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197341,
	title = {Is Slovakia the Next Portugal? A Comment on "Is Poland The Next Spain? by Francesco Caselli and Silvana Tenreyo},
	journal = {NBER ISOM },
	year = {2004},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/IsSlovakiatheNextPortugal.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194171,
	title = {Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries},
	journal = {IMF Staff Papers},
	volume = {52},
	number = {2},
	year = {2004},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ContractionaryCurrencyCrashesIMFSP.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@webarticle {191606,
	title = {Program Report on Research in Emerging Markets},
	journal = {NBER IFM},
	year = {2004},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/reporter/winter04/$\#$report},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {622326,
	title = {"A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export Price ({\textquoteleft}PEP{\textquoteright}),"},
	journal = {International Finance},
	number = {no.1, Spring },
	year = {2003},
	pages = {61-88},
	abstract = {The question of the optimal monetary regime for small open economies is still wide open. On the one hand, the big selling points of floating exchange rates {\textendash} monetary independence and accommodation of terms of trade shocks {\textendash} have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand, proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal anchors have each run aground on their own peculiar shoals. Rigid pegs to the dollar are dangerous when the dollar appreciates. Money targeting doesn{\textquoteright}t work when there is a velocity shock. CPI targeting is not viable when there is a large import price shock. And the gold standard fails when there are large fluctuations in the world gold market. This paper advances a new proposal called PEP: Peg the Export Price. Most applicable for countries that are specialized in the production of a particular mineral or agricultural product, the proposal calls on them to commit to fix the price of that commodity in terms of domestic currency. A series of simulations shows how such a proposal would have worked for oil producers over the period 1970-2000. The paths of real oil prices, exports, and debt are simulated under alternative regimes. An illustrative finding is that countries that suffered a declining world market in oil or other export commodities in the late 1990s, would under the PEP proposal have automatically experienced a depreciation and a boost to exports when it was most needed. The argument for PEP is that it simultaneously delivers automatic accommodation to terms of trade shocks, as floating exchange rates are supposed to do, while retaining the credibility-enhancing advantages of a nominal anchor, as dollar pegs are supposed to do.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {201906,
	title = {Republican and Democratic Presidents Have Switched Economic Policies},
	journal = {Milken Institute Review },
	volume = {5},
	number = {1},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {18-25},
	url = {https://assets1b.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Publication/MIReview/PDF/18_25mr17.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196406,
	title = {The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations},
	journal = {Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {99-109},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/The\%20UK\%20Decision\%20Regarding\%20EMU.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194331,
	title = {Promoting Better National Institutions: The Role of the IMF},
	journal = {IMF Staff Papers},
	volume = {50},
	year = {2003},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Promoting_better_national_institutions_role_of_IMF.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194511,
	title = {Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies},
	journal = {Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia},
	year = {2003},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ADBpaperOnExRateRegimes.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@book {194191,
	title = {Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets},
	year = {2003},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago},
	url = {http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo3645520.html},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Michael Dooley}
}
@article {176631,
	title = {What Can an Economic Adviser Do When He Disagrees with the President?},
	journal = {Challenge},
	volume = {46},
	number = {3},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {29-52},
	abstract = {The author, a member of President Bill Clinton{\textquoteright}s Council of Economic Advisers, traces a fascinating history, about how fundamental policy differences between economic advisers and presidents have been resolved. Some of the history, which includes two resignations on principle, has never been told, \&nbsp;But what to do under President George W. Bush as budget deficits quickly rise? The author offers his advice to economic advisers.},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/05775132.2003.11034206},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {309016,
	title = {Foreword},
	booktitle = {The Economics of Exchange Rates},
	year = {2002},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press },
	organization = {Cambridge University Press },
	address = {Cambridge, UK},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/MarkTaylor\&SarnoBkForwrd.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Lucio Sarno and Mark Taylor}
}
@article {286591,
	title = {Comments on the Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies},
	journal = {Asian Economic Papers},
	volume = {1},
	number = {2},
	year = {2002},
	pages = {127-129},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/YoshinoCommt3NoRedln.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {286596,
	title = {Economic Policy in Japan and East Asia},
	journal = {Monetary Stability and Economic Growth: A Dialog Between Leading Economists},
	year = {2002},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197921,
	title = {An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	volume = {117},
	number = {2},
	year = {2002},
	pages = {437-466},
	abstract = {
	To quantify the implications of common currencies for trade and income, we use data for over 200 countries and dependencies. In our two-stage approach, estimates at the first stage suggest that belonging to a currency union/board triples trade with other currency union members. Moreover, there is no evidence of trade diversion. Our estimates at the second stage suggest that every 1 percent increase in a country{\textquoteright}s overall trade (relative to GDP) raises income per capita by at least one-third of a percent. We combine the two estimates to quantify the effect of common currencies on output. Our results support the hypothesis that important beneficial effects of currency unions come through the promotion of trade.



	\&nbsp;

},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fshttps://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/117/2/437/1883899/jfrankel/QJESep19-2001-F\&Rose.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@article {197681,
	title = {Forward to "The Economics of Exchange Rates" by Lucio Sarno and Mark Taylor},
	year = {2002},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/MarkTaylor\&SarnoBkForwrd.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196416,
	title = {Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations},
	journal = {Background Report for Commision on The UK Outside the Euro},
	year = {2002},
	url = {http://files.wcfia.harvard.edu/755__CurrencyUK.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194516,
	title = {A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Integration},
	year = {2002},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CommodAnchorJEI_ASrJul1631.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ayako Saiki}
}
@conference {194336,
	title = {Comment on "Towards a Statutory Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring Lessons from a Corporate Bankruptcy Practice around the World" by Patrick Bolton},
	booktitle = {IMF Annual Research Conference},
	year = {2002},
	month = {8-Nov},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Comment_on_Towards_A_Statutory_Approach.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@book {194196,
	title = {Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets},
	year = {2002},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/bookstoc/prevcurrtoc.html},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Sebastian Edwards}
}
@article {193716,
	title = {Push the Euro Up and the Yen Down},
	journal = {Financial Times Deutscheland},
	year = {2002},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Op-edEuroYenFTD4900chars.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193706,
	title = {Comments on Naoyuki Yoshino and Eisuke Sakakibara{\textquoteright}s "The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies"},
	journal = {Asian Economic Papers},
	volume = {1},
	number = {2},
	year = {2002},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/YoshinoCommt3NoRedln.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {192136,
	title = {Should Gold-Exporters Peg Their Currencies to Gold?},
	journal = {World Gold Council},
	volume = {Research Study No. 29},
	year = {2002},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/research/j.frankel_world.gold.council_should.gold.exporters.peg.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@book {189146,
	title = {American Economic Policy in the 1990{\textquoteright}s},
	year = {2002},
	publisher = {MIT Press},
	organization = {MIT Press},
	address = {Cambridge},
	url = {https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/american-economic-policy-1990s},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Peter Orszag}
}
@article {194536,
	title = {Verifying Exchange Rate Regimes},
	journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
	volume = {66},
	number = {809},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {351-386},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/VerifyingExchangeRateReg.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Eduardo Fajnzylber and Sergio Schmukler and Luis Serven}
}
@article {194341,
	title = {The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises},
	journal = {NBER Working Paper Series},
	volume = {8634},
	year = {2001},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w8634},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Nouriel Roubini}
}
@article {194181,
	title = {Coping with Crises in Emerging Markets: Adjustment versus Financing},
	journal = {Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System},
	year = {2001},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FINVSADJDasRepr.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@presentation {309876,
	title = {Achieving Environmental Goals at Minimum Economic Cost},
	journal = {Edison Electric Institute Advisory Panel on Fuel Diversity},
	year = {2000},
	address = {EEI Chief Executives Conference, Palm Springs, CA},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/EEIPalmSpgsrNoB.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {308986,
	title = {Comments on {\textquoteright}Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama{\textquoteright} by Goldfajn and Olivares},
	journal = {LACEA},
	year = {2000},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/DollariztnPanCmtIlnGLACEA.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {309011,
	title = {Lecture at IMF Institute},
	booktitle = {IMF Survey},
	volume = {29},
	year = {2000},
	month = {28 August},
	edition = {17},
	url = {http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/2000/082800.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {286696,
	title = {Verifiability and the Vanishing Immediate Exchange Rate Regime},
	year = {2000},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/vervan.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Sergio Schmukler and Dani Rodrik}
}
@article {198901,
	title = {Comments on "Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama" by Goldfajn and Olivares},
	journal = {Economia},
	volume = {1},
	number = {2},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {141-152},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/DollariztnPanCmtIlnGLACEA.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {196421,
	title = {EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective},
	booktitle = {What Future After the Euro?},
	year = {2000},
	publisher = {Laterza and Figli },
	organization = {Laterza and Figli },
	address = {Rome},
	abstract = {\&nbsp;Has the euro been a success, in its first 1 {\textonehalf} years life?\&nbsp;\&nbsp; The answer is simple.\&nbsp; It has been a success as a new international currency.\&nbsp; But it has not been a success as a currency in which to invest; that is, it has gone down in value.\&nbsp; These are two distinct aspects of a currency -- the extent to which it is used internationally and its value on the foreign exchange market.\&nbsp;\&nbsp; It would be wrong to say that there are no connections whatsoever between international use and foreign exchange value.\&nbsp; Indeed, there are causal links in both directions.\&nbsp; If there is a decline in the use of a currency as a store of value, e.g., if central banks around the world switch their reserves out of that currency into others, that may cause a depreciation.\&nbsp; And conversely, a currency that has a reputation for losing value will not be a good candidate for international use.\&nbsp; But the correlation is less than one would think.\&nbsp; In particular, the rankings of the currencies in international use -- euro, dollar, pound, yen, DM, Swiss franc, SDR -- tend to change quite slowly over time -- on the scale of decades -- whereas the exchange rates among them can change rapidly -- large movements on the scale of months, or even days.\&nbsp; The financial press from time to time goes through a period when it confuses the international currency question with the exchange rate question, and I think it may be doing so again now with the euro.\&nbsp;},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/americanviewofemu\&euro.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194351,
	title = {Critiques of the IMF},
	year = {2000},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Critiques_of_the_IMF.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194146,
	title = {Country Funds and Asymmetric Information},
	journal = {International Journal of Finance and Economics },
	year = {2000},
	pages = {177-195},
	url = {http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/CF\%26AI-IJFE.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler}
}
@article {308991,
	title = {Dollarization in Latin America: Solution or Straitjacket?},
	journal = {Council on Foreign Relations},
	year = {1999},
	url = {http://scholar.harvard.edu/frankel/publications?page=11},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {200756,
	title = {Treasury Secretaries and the Dollar},
	journal = {The International Economy},
	volume = {4},
	number = {5},
	year = {1999},
	month = {Oct./Nov.},
	pages = {7},
	abstract = {Treasury secretaries whose name begins with "B" have been perceived as bashing the dollar; in any case it has depreciated during their terms. \&nbsp;Those whose name begins with "R" have revived the dollar.},
	url = {http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/2296607/treasury-secretaries-dollar},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {198906,
	title = {Is the US Interested in Exercising Dollar Diplomacy?},
	booktitle = {InterAmerican Development Bank},
	year = {1999},
	month = {Jul},
	address = {Panama City, Panama},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/panamaspeechAbr.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {197801,
	title = {No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times},
	booktitle = {Graham Lecture},
	year = {1999},
	month = {20-Apr},
	address = {Princeton University},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/research/j.frankel_nber_no.single.currency.regime.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197841,
	title = {The New Financial Architecture: Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Integration},
	journal = {The Brookings Instutition},
	volume = {Policy Brief no. 51},
	year = {1999},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196426,
	title = {On the Euro: Impacts on Members and Non-Members},
	year = {1999},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ontheeuro.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194596,
	title = {Proposals Regarding Restrictions on Capital Flows},
	journal = {African Finance Journal},
	volume = {1},
	number = {1},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {92-104},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/proposalsregardingrestrictionsoncapitalflowsafj.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@proceedings {194546,
	title = {No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries},
	journal = {House Committee on Banking and Financial Services},
	year = {1999},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/TESTIMNY.HBC.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194541,
	title = {No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times},
	journal = {NBER Working Paper Series},
	volume = {7338},
	year = {1999},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w7338.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194601,
	title = {The New Financial Architecture: Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Integration},
	journal = {Policy Brief no. 51, The Brookings Institution },
	year = {1999},
	url = {http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/1999/06/development-frankel},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {194531,
	title = {Verifiability: A Rationale for the Failure of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes},
	booktitle = {InterAmerican Seminar in Economics},
	year = {1999},
	month = {3-4 Dec},
	address = {Buenos Aires, Argentina},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/verifiability.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194206,
	title = {Soros{\textquoteright} Split Personality},
	journal = {Foreign Affairs},
	volume = {78},
	number = {2},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {124-130},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/sorosrvw.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {194201,
	title = {International Lender of Last Resort},
	booktitle = {Rethinking the International Monetary System Conference},
	year = {1999},
	month = {7-9 Jun},
	address = {Wequasett Inn, Chatham MA},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/weqfrbosllr.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193411,
	title = {Ten Lessons Learned from the Korean Crisis},
	journal = {NBER},
	year = {1999},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Ten\%20lessons\%20learned\%20from\%20the\%20Korean\%20Crisis.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@newspaperarticle {191611,
	title = {Program Report NBER IFM 1996-1999},
	journal = {NBER Reporter},
	year = {1999},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/reporter/reporter_archive/winter1999-2000.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196431,
	title = {The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criterion},
	journal = {The Economic Journal},
	volume = {108},
	number = {449},
	year = {1998},
	pages = {1009-1025},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w5700},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@conference {193416,
	title = {Asian Economics in Perspective},
	booktitle = {Fourth APEC Roundtable: Regional Cooperation and Asian Recovery},
	year = {1998},
	month = {26-May},
	address = {Boston, MA},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Apecbrds.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {193406,
	title = {The Asian Model, The Miracle, The Crisis, and The Fund},
	booktitle = {The US International Trade Commission },
	year = {1998},
	month = {16-Apr},
	address = {Washington, DC},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/eacritc.pub.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {461926,
	title = {"Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?"},
	journal = {Estudios de Economia (Universidad de Chile: Santiago)},
	volume = {24},
	number = {2},
	year = {1997},
	month = { December 1997},
	pages = {263-285},
	abstract = {Some countries undergoing exchange-rate-based stabilization and financial liberalization in Latin America and elsewhere have faced large capital inflows since 1991. Many have tried to sterilize the reserve inflows. Calvo and co-authors argue essentially that sterilization is more difficult than generally realized, due to the interest costs on sterilization bonds. Reisen argues essentially that sterilization is easier than generally believed. This paper reviews the issues in the simplest textbook model. The conclusions are that local interest rates are not likely to rise if the source of the disturbance is an exogenous capital inflow, but will rise if the disturbance is an increase in money demand or an increase in exports. In every case, sterilized intervention will leave interest rates higher than they would be if the inflow took place unsterilized. The case where the domestic money supply and the rest of the economy are insulated from foreign disturbances despite perfect capital mobility and a fixed exchange rate, which Reisen attributes to Southeast Asia, is seen to be the case where domestic agents are unresponsive to interest rates.},
	url = {http://www.econ.uchile.cl/uploads/publicacion/b7f06b65-2ea9-489f-8bbe-83d196cd2499.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198856,
	title = {The Dollar{\textquoteright}s Demise? Future of the Dollar as the World{\textquoteright}s Principal Reserve Asset},
	journal = {Strategic Economic Decisions},
	year = {1997},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/DollarsDemise.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {197956,
	title = {The New Regionalism and Asia: Impact and Options},
	booktitle = {The Global Trading System and Developing Asia},
	year = {1997},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ASIAREG3.ADB.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {197951,
	title = {ASEAN in a Regional Perspective},
	journal = {Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries},
	year = {1997},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ASEANJUL.IMF.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {197291,
	title = {Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency},
	journal = {CIDER WP },
	number = {C96-073},
	year = {1997},
	url = {http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/hhsiiessp/0611.htm},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@conference {194211,
	title = {Preventing Bank Crises: Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures, Keynote Speech},
	year = {1997},
	month = {11-Jun},
	address = {Lake Bluff, Illinois},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Chicago5.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {193651,
	title = {The Second Clinton Administration{\textquoteright}s Policies Toward Korea and East Asia},
	booktitle = {Address to the Korea-US Twenty-First Century Council},
	year = {1997},
	month = {1-May},
	address = {Washington},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/KOREA21C.R2.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@book {200796,
	title = {The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets},
	year = {1996},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and G. Galli and A. Giovannini}
}
@article {200686,
	title = {A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean-Reversion Within and Between Countries},
	journal = {Journal of International Economics},
	volume = {40},
	number = {1-2},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {209-224},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w5006},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@inbook {198861,
	title = {The SDR, Reserve Currencies, and the Future of the International Monetary System},
	booktitle = {The Future of the SDR in Light of Changes in the International Financial System},
	year = {1996},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/SDRCIDwp.3JF.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Barry Eichengreen}
}
@article {197806,
	title = {Recent Exchange Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	volume = {86},
	number = {2},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {153-158},
	url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v86y1996i2p153-58.html},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197826,
	title = {A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates},
	journal = {NBER Working Paper Series},
	number = {4865},
	year = {1996},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w4865},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@article {194616,
	title = {Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence},
	journal = {International Journal of Finance and Economics },
	volume = {1},
	number = {1},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {1-23},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/STEPKFWB-IJFE.3.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Chudozie Okongwu}
}
@article {194216,
	title = {Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment},
	journal = {Journal of International Economics},
	volume = {41},
	number = {3/4},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {351-366},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@article {194156,
	title = {Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Mexican Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?},
	journal = {Open Economies Review},
	volume = {7},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {511-534},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w5714},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler}
}
@inbook {194151,
	title = {Crises, Contagion, and Country Funds: Effects on East Asia and Latin America},
	booktitle = {Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Lessons from the Pacific Rim},
	year = {1996},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	organization = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler}
}
@article {309846,
	title = {The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method: Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market},
	journal = {Journal of Empirical Finance},
	volume = {2},
	year = {1995},
	pages = {3-18},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CASEmethod.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Charles Engel and Kenneth A. Froot and Anthony P. Rodrigues}
}
@conference {200791,
	title = {Recent Exchange Rate Experience, The Tobin Tax, and Other Proposals for Reform},
	booktitle = {Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas},
	year = {1995},
	month = {14-15 Sept},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198876,
	title = {Still the Lingua Franca: The Exaggerated Death of the Dollar},
	journal = {Foreign Affairs},
	volume = {74},
	number = {4},
	year = {1995},
	pages = {9-16},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/RESCURR$.FA5.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@conference {198986,
	title = {Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expecatations: More Currencies, More Horizons, More Tests},
	booktitle = {AEA Meetings },
	year = {1995},
	month = {6-Jan},
	address = {Washington, DC},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/MCsrvFr1.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@article {197936,
	title = {APEC and Regional Trading Arrangements in the Pacific},
	journal = {Pacific Trade and Investment: Options for the 90{\textquoteright}s },
	year = {1995},
	pages = {289-312},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/TORONTO3.APC.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei and E. Stein}
}
@conference {197816,
	title = {How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?},
	booktitle = {Conference on New and Innovative Sources of Financing Development},
	year = {1995},
	month = {10-Oct},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/TOBINTAXappendectomy.PA3.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197301,
	title = {A Proposal to Introduce the ECU First in the East},
	journal = {Institute for International Economics},
	year = {1995},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ECU4EEUR.REV.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Charles Wyplosz}
}
@proceedings {194361,
	title = {The Obvious Peso Blunder at Treasury},
	journal = {Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs},
	year = {1995},
	address = {US Senate},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {194551,
	title = {Monetary Regime Choices for a Semi-Open Country},
	booktitle = {Capital Controls, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in the World Economy },
	year = {1995},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	organization = {Cambridge University Press},
	address = {Cambridge},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/KOREGIM2Apr94.YSP.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194221,
	title = {Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets},
	journal = {International Economic Department of the World Bank},
	year = {1995},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CURRCRSH-WB1.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Rose}
}
@article {193681,
	title = {Who Drives Real Interest Rates in the Pacific Rim: The United States or Japan?},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {14},
	number = {6},
	year = {1995},
	pages = {801-821},
	abstract = {This paper investigates the relative influence of US and Japanese real interest rates in the determination of local Pacific Rim rates, where influence is defined by the presence of common stochastic trends. Furthermore, the degree to which long run real interest parity holds is examined. The cointegration testing methodology of Johansen (1988) is adopted for this analysis, which allows for multiple cointegrating vectors. The results indicate that Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan are linked with both the US and Japan (in terms of cointegration and positive covariation), while only Singapore is solely linked with the US. On the other hand Korea, and perhaps Indonesia and Thailand appear to be more closely linked with Japan. Real interest parity holds for only the following interest rate pairs: US-Singapore, US-Taiwan and Japan-Taiwan.},
	url = {http://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfpb/95-02.html},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@article {309861,
	title = {An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along its Entire Length},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	volume = {109},
	number = {2},
	year = {1994},
	pages = {517-530},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/LOWNTNEW-S18QJE.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Cara Lown}
}
@inbook {309841,
	title = {Introduction},
	booktitle = {The Internationalization of Equity Markets},
	year = {1994},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w4590},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {286601,
	title = {Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies},
	journal = {Macroeconomic Linkages: Savings, Exchange Rates and Capital Flows},
	volume = {3},
	year = {1994},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/SAPPORO6.YEN.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {200761,
	title = {The Making of Exchange Rate Policy in the 1980s},
	journal = {American Economic Policy in the 1980s},
	year = {1994},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w3539},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {200706,
	title = {Clinton{\textquoteright}s Dollar Policy and The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention},
	journal = {Revue d{\textquoteright}Economie Financiere},
	year = {1994},
	pages = {125-137},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Clintons_Dollar_Policy.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {200736,
	title = {Concerted Interventions and the Dollar: An Analysis of Daily Data},
	booktitle = {The International Monetary System in Crisis and Reform: Essays in Memory of Rinaldo Ossola},
	year = {1994},
	pages = {242-247},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	organization = {Cambridge University Press},
	address = {Cambridge},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/PERUGIA-CGalliR.CMT.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198981,
	title = {Are Exchange Rate Expectations Biased? Tests for a Cross-Section of 17 Countries},
	journal = {NBER Working Paper Series},
	number = {3807},
	year = {1994},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w3806},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@article {197931,
	title = {A "Greater China" Trade Bloc?},
	journal = {China Economic Review},
	volume = {5},
	number = {2},
	year = {1994},
	pages = {179-190},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/1043951X94900221},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@inbook {197941,
	title = {Is Japan Establishing a Trade Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?},
	booktitle = {The Structure of the Japanese Economy: Changes on the Domestic and International Fronts},
	year = {1994},
	pages = {387-415},
	publisher = {Macmillan Press},
	organization = {Macmillan Press},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/AMX18DAS.OKA.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193701,
	title = {Financial Links Around the Pacific Rim: 1982-1992},
	journal = {Exchange Rate Policy and Interdependence: Perspectives from the Pacific Basin},
	year = {1994},
	pages = {17-47},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/PACLINK4MNZ-GlickVo.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@article {193696,
	title = {Is a Yen Bloc Emerging?},
	journal = {Economic Cooperation and Challenges in the Pacific},
	volume = {5},
	year = {1994},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/KEI4YEN.BLC.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@article {193686,
	title = {Financial Barriers in the Pacific Basin: 1982-1992},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Integration},
	volume = {9},
	number = {1},
	year = {1994},
	pages = {62-80},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/23000558?uid=3739808\&uid=2\&uid=4\&uid=3739256\&sid=21104622031063},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@book {193711,
	title = {Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia},
	year = {1994},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago},
	url = {http://www.amazon.com/Regionalism-Rivalry-National-Economic-Conference/dp/0226259994},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Miles Kahler}
}
@article {200716,
	title = {Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	volume = {83},
	number = {5},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {1356-1369},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Does_Foreign_Exchange_Intervention_Matter.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Kathryn Dominguez}
}
@article {200711,
	title = {Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?},
	journal = {Institute for International Economics},
	year = {1993},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Kathryn Dominguez}
}
@article {200726,
	title = {Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectation Effects for the Mark},
	journal = {NBER Working Paper Series},
	volume = {3299},
	year = {1993},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w3299.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Kathryn Dominguez}
}
@article {198936,
	title = {Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross-Section of 17 Currencies},
	journal = {Review of International Economics},
	volume = {1},
	number = {2},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {136-144},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ExRateExpects\&theRiskPremium.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Menzie Chinn}
}
@article {197926,
	title = {Emerging Currency Blocs},
	journal = {International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies},
	year = {1993},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/GENEVA12.BLC.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@inbook {197946,
	title = {Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?},
	booktitle = {Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the US in Pacific Asia },
	year = {1993},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w4050},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@book {197796,
	title = {On Exchange Rates},
	year = {1993},
	publisher = {MIT Press},
	organization = {MIT Press},
	address = {Cambridge},
	url = {http://mitpress.mit.edu/book-home.tcl?isbn=0262061546},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197306,
	title = {Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht; Comments on Buiter, Corsetti and Roubini},
	journal = {Centre for Economic Policy Reserach},
	volume = {16},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {92-97},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CEPRComtBuiterC\&R.MDS.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {194606,
	title = {Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?},
	journal = {Latin American Macroeconomic Network},
	volume = {24},
	number = {2},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {263-285},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193691,
	title = {Is there a Currency Bloc in the Pacific?},
	journal = {Exchange Rates, International Trade and the Balance of Payments},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {275-308},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/PacificBloc-F\&Wei1993RBA.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei}
}
@inbook {193766,
	title = {The Evolving Japanese Financial System, and the Cost of Capital},
	booktitle = {Restructuring Japan{\textquoteright}s Financial Markets},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {235-285},
	publisher = {(New York University and Irwin Press)},
	organization = {(New York University and Irwin Press)},
	address = {New York, NY},
	abstract = {The paper surveys the extensive literature on whether Japanese corporations in the 1980s were able to finance investment more easily than Americans. Along the way, it considers: the leverage of Japanese firms, dividend payout, equity price/earnings ratios, corporate taxation, crossownership, speculative bubbles, international capital mobility, the lower cost of financing investment internally and through "main bank" relationships, and the move to a more market-oriented system as these relationships appeared to break down in the 1980s. The conclusion that emerges from the literature is that the cost of finance in the 1980s was indeed lower in Japan than in the United States, by a variety of measures. But trends of domestic and international liberalization, followed by the events of 1990-92, have now raised the cost of capital in Japan to the U.S. market level. Some unanswered questions remain, regarding the reported shifts in reliance by firms between banking relationships versus securities markets.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/JFN30complete.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Ingo Walter and Takato Hiraki}
}
@inbook {193736,
	title = {The Japanese Financial System and the Cost of Capital},
	booktitle = {Japanese Capital Markets},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {21-77},
	publisher = {Basil Blackwell Inc.},
	organization = {Basil Blackwell Inc.},
	address = {Cambridge, MA},
	abstract = {The paper surveys the extensive literature on whether the\&nbsp;cost of capital is low in Japan, and related topics. Along\&nbsp;the way, it considers: the leverage of Japanese firms,\&nbsp;dividend payout, equity price/earnings ratios, corporate taxation, cross-ownership, land price/rental ratios,\&nbsp;speculative bubbles, the household saving rate, international\&nbsp;capital mobility, the lower cost of financing investment internally and through "main bank" relationships, and the move to a more market-oriented system as these relationships break down. The conclusion that emerges from the literature is that the cost of finance in the 1980s was indeed lower in Japan than in the United States, by a variety of measures. But trends of domestic and international liberalization, followed by the events of 1990, have now raised the cost of capital in Japan to the U.S. market level.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/JAPF25ST\&refs.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Shinji Takagi}
}
@article {193671,
	title = {Foreign Exchange Policy, Monetary Policy and Capital Market Liberalization in Koera},
	journal = {Korean-US Financial Issues},
	volume = {3},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {91-107},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FXPolicyKEI9CUT.KOR.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193676,
	title = {Liberalization of Korea{\textquoteright}s Foreign Exchange Markets, and the Role of Trade Relations in the United States},
	journal = {Shaping a New Economic Relationship: The Republic of Korea and the United States},
	year = {1993},
	pages = {120-142},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193401,
	title = {Recent Changes in the Financial Systems of Asian and Pacific Countries},
	journal = {Sixth International Conference of the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies},
	volume = {Financial Stability in a Changing Environment},
	year = {1993},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ASIABNKS.IIE.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@newspaperarticle {191616,
	title = {Program Report NBER IFM 1992-1993},
	journal = {NBER Reporter},
	year = {1993},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/reporter/reporter_archive/Winter\%201993(4).pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {309001,
	title = {On the Dollar},
	booktitle = {New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance},
	year = {1992},
	publisher = {MacMillan Press Reference Books},
	organization = {MacMillan Press Reference Books},
	address = {London},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/PALGCUT2.ON$.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {196436,
	title = {The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?},
	journal = {Oxford Economic Papers},
	volume = {44},
	year = {1992},
	pages = {791-816},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w3819},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Steve Phillips}
}
@article {193661,
	title = {The Recent Liberalization of Korea{\textquoteright}s Foreign Exchange Markets and Tests of US versus Japanese Influence},
	journal = {Seoul Journal of Economics},
	volume = {5},
	number = {1},
	year = {1992},
	pages = {1-29},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {286606,
	title = {Is a Yen Bloc forming in Pacific Asia?},
	journal = {Finance and the International Economy},
	year = {1991},
	pages = {4-20},
	url = {http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/AMEXCUT2.YEN.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193741,
	title = {The Cost of Capital in Japan: Update},
	journal = {Business Economics},
	volume = {26},
	number = {2},
	year = {1991},
	pages = {25-31},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/JFNBUSEC.CC8.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {193746,
	title = {The Japanese Cost of Finance: A Survey},
	journal = {Financial Management},
	volume = {20},
	number = {1},
	year = {1991},
	month = {Spring 1991},
	pages = {95-127},
	abstract = {This paper surveys the extensive literature on whether the cost of capital is low in Japan. Along the way, it considers: the leverage of Japanese firms, dividend payout, equity price/earnings ratios, corporate taxation, cross-ownership, land price/rental ratios, speculative bubbles, the household saving rate, international capital mobility, the lower cost of financing investment internally and through "main bank" relationships, and the move to a more marketoriented system as these relationships break down. The conclusion that emerges from the literature is that the cost of finance in the 1980s was indeed lower in Japan than in the United States, by a variety of measures. But trends of domestic and international liberalization, followed by the events of 1990, have now raised the cost of capital in Japan to the U.S. market level.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/JAPF21FM.COC.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {193751,
	title = {Japanese Finance in the 1980s: A Survey},
	booktitle = {  Trade with Japan: Has the Door Opened Wide?},
	year = {1991},
	pages = {225-268},
	publisher = { University of Chicago Press},
	organization = { University of Chicago Press},
	address = { Chicago},
	abstract = {Five sets of questions puzzle observers of Japanese financial markets, particularly from the U.S. viewpoint. They concern: the apparently low corporate cost of capital, low real interest rates, high equity prices, high land prices, and the rising real yen. The paper surveys writings on these issues, in brief enough form that one can see how the questions fit together.Topics covered include: the leverage of Japanese firms, dividend payout, equity price/earnings ratios, corporate taxation, cross-ownership, land price/rental ratios, speculative bubbles, the household saving rate, international capital mobility, expected real appreciation of the yen, the lower cost of financing investment internally and through "main bank" relationships, and the move to a more market-oriented system as these relationships break down.Conclusions include: (1) the real interest rate in Japan may remain below that in the United States, despite international arbitrage, (2) the main relevant effect of the internationalization in Japan may have been to accelerate the process whereby corporate finance becomes market-oriented, so that (3) affiliated firms are losing the special privilege of borrowing at a cheaper rate, while (4) unaffiliated firms are able to borrow more cheaply than before, and (5) the increased availability of funds for asset-market arbitrage allowed the great run-up in equity and land prices in the 1980s.},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8666.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel},
	editor = {Paul Krugman}
}
@inbook {200766,
	title = {Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars},
	booktitle = {Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies},
	year = {1990},
	publisher = {Clarendon Press},
	organization = {Clarendon Press},
	address = {Oxford, UK},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ChartistsFunds\&Demand$\%20F\&F88.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ken Froot}
}
@article {200776,
	title = {Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	volume = {80},
	number = {2},
	year = {1990},
	pages = {181-185},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ChartistsFunds\&Trd\%20F\&FrootAER90.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ken Froot}
}
@inbook {200691,
	title = {Zen and the Art of Modern Macroeconomics: The Search for Perfect Nothingness},
	booktitle = {Monetary Policy for a Volatile Global Economy},
	year = {1990},
	publisher = {American Enterprise Institute},
	organization = {American Enterprise Institute},
	address = {Washington, DC},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Stockman.PDF},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {199001,
	title = {Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market},
	journal = {International Monetary Fund Working Paper 90/43},
	year = {1990},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w3470},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ken Froot}
}
@article {198941,
	title = {Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	volume = {104},
	number = {1},
	year = {1989},
	pages = {139-161},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ForwardDiscountBiasIsItAnExchangeRiskPremium.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ken Froot}
}
@article {197811,
	title = {Flexible Exchange Rates: Experience versus Theory},
	journal = {Journal of Portfolio Management},
	volume = {15},
	number = {2},
	year = {1989},
	pages = {45-54},
	url = {http://www.researchgate.net/publication/247905571_Flexible_exchange_rates_Experience_versus_theory},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {200771,
	title = {International Capital Flows; and Domestic Economic Policies},
	booktitle = {The United States in the World Economy},
	year = {1988},
	pages = {559-627},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	organization = {University of Chicago Press},
	address = {Chicago},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w2210},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198951,
	title = {Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Rate Premium},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {7},
	year = {1988},
	pages = {115-125},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w2367},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {498866,
	title = {Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate:  Evidence from Survey Data},
	journal = {Journal of the Japanese and International Economies },
	volume = {1},
	number = {3},
	year = {1987},
	month = {September 1987},
	pages = {249-274},
	abstract = {Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk.},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0889158387900116},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Kenneth Froot}
}
@article {200781,
	title = {Regression vs. Volatility Tests of the Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {6},
	number = {1},
	year = {1987},
	pages = {49-56},
	url = {http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stock/files/regression_tests_versus_volatility_tests_of_the_efficiency_of_foreign_exchange_markets.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and James Stock}
}
@article {198991,
	title = {Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	volume = {77},
	number = {1},
	year = {1987},
	pages = {133-153},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/UsingSurveyDatatoTestStandardProps.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Ken Froot}
}
@article {197866,
	title = {Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?},
	journal = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual},
	year = {1987},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Richard Meese}
}
@article {194621,
	title = {International Capital Mobility in Developing Countries vs. Industrialized Countries: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?},
	journal = {IMF Staff Papers},
	volume = {34},
	number = {3},
	year = {1987},
	pages = {503-530},
	abstract = {The finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that countriesf investment rates are highly correlated with their national saving rates has by now been confirmed by many subsequent studies, even though their inference that international capital mobility nust be low has not been as widely accepted. This paper examines the statistical relationship between national saving and investment in a sample that includes not only 14 industrialized countries, but also 50 developing countries. The paper addresses some of the econometric critiques that have been aimed at the Feldstein-Horioka work. Contrary to what one would expect from consideration of capital mobility, the coefficient appears higher for industrialized countries than for developing countries, and higher after 1973 than before. Our interpretation of the saving-investment evidence is that the hypothesis of a high degree of substitutability for claims on physical capital located in different countries is not supported by the data. International substitutability for financial capital may be nigh, but this is a separate condition (which is properly tested by looking directly at rates of return). High international substitutability for bonds would imply high international substitutability for physical capital if capital were perfectly substitutable for bonds within each country, but there is no reason for this to hold, any more than there is for all goods to be perfect substitutes.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/IntlCapitalMobility.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Michael Dooley and Don Mathieson}
}
@article {634851,
	title = {Overshooting, Agricultural Commodity Markets, and Public Policy: Discussion.},
	journal = {American Journal of Agricultural Economic},
	volume = {68},
	number = {2},
	year = {1986},
	pages = {418-419},
	url = {https://academic-oup-com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ajae/article-abstract/68/2/418/83056},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {200696,
	title = {International Capital Mobility and Crowding Out in the US Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or of Goods Markets?},
	booktitle = {How Open is the US Economy},
	year = {1986},
	publisher = {Lexington Books},
	organization = {Lexington Books},
	url = {http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/86/conf/frankel.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198956,
	title = {The Implications of Mean-Variance Optimization for Four Questions in International Macroeconomics},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {5},
	year = {1986},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w1617},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {645171,
	title = {Commodity Prices, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility},
	journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking},
	volume = {17},
	number = {4},
	year = {1985},
	pages = {427-438},
	abstract = {The general price level does not provide a sensitive indicator of whether monetary policy is tight or loose, because mostprices are sticky. Interest rates are free to move, but they are an ambiguous indicator of monetary policy: one does not know whether changes in the interest rate are due to changes in the expected inflation rate or the real interest rate.Commodity prices provide the ideal sensitive indicator.This paper has two distinct aims. First, a theoretical model of "over-shooting" in commodity markets is presented. A known change in the money supply is shown to cause an instantaneous change in commodity prices that is greater than the proportionate change that describes long-run equilibrium.Second, we take the occasion of the Fed{\textquoteright}s Friday money supply announcements to test the theory. We find that an unexpectedly large money announcement causes significant negative reactions in prices of six commodities. This supports at once the sticky-price or overshooting view, and the notion that the market has confidence in the Fed{\textquoteright}s commitment to correct any deviations from its money growth targets.},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w1121},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Gikas Hardouvelis}
}
@article {309851,
	title = {Portfolio Crowding Out Empirically Estimated},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	volume = {100},
	year = {1985},
	pages = {1041-1065},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {309856,
	title = {Portfolio Shares as {\textquoteright}Beta Breakers{\textquoteright}: A Test of CAPM},
	journal = {Journal of Portfolio Management},
	volume = {11},
	number = {4},
	year = {1985},
	pages = {18-23},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {200661,
	title = {On the Franc},
	journal = {The French Economy: Theory and Policy},
	year = {1985},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@book {200786,
	title = {Six Possible Meanings of Overvaluation: The 1981-85 Dollar},
	year = {1985},
	url = {https://ies.princeton.edu/pdf/E159.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {645170,
	title = {Why Interest Rates React to Money Announcements:  An Explanation from the Foreign Exchange Market},
	journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	volume = {10},
	number = {1},
	year = {1984},
	pages = {31-39},
	abstract = {When the Fed announces a money supply greater than had been expected, interest rates rise. Why? One explanation is that the market raises its estimate of the future rates of money growth and inflation, and bids up nominal interest rates. We offer contrary evidence: on such days the dollar appreciates, not depreciates. An alternative explanation is that the market perceives the change in the money stock as a transitory fluctuation that the Fed will reverse in the future. The anticipated future tightening raises today{\textquoteright}s\&nbsp;real\&nbsp;interest rate, causes a capital inflow, and appreciates the dollar, the result in fact observed.},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0304393284900060},
	author = {Charles Engel and Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {200701,
	title = {The Theory of Trade in Middle Products: Extension},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	year = {1984},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1804024?uid=3739696\&uid=2\&uid=4\&uid=3739256\&sid=21104696870923},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {200651,
	title = {Tests of Monetary and Portfolio-Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination},
	journal = {Exchange Rate Theory and Practice},
	year = {1984},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6837.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198961,
	title = {Do Asset Demand Functions Optimize Over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six Currency Test},
	journal = {Journal of International Economics},
	volume = {17},
	year = {1984},
	pages = {309-323},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w1051},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Charles Engel}
}
@book {193726,
	title = {The Yen/Dollar Agreement: Liberalizing Japanese Capital Markets},
	year = {1984},
	publisher = {MIT Press for Institute for International Economics},
	organization = {MIT Press for Institute for International Economics},
	edition = {9},
	address = {Washington, DC},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {645345,
	title = {The Effect of Excessively-Elastic Expectations on Exchange Rate Volatility in the Dornbusch Overshooting Model},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {2},
	number = {1},
	year = {1983},
	pages = {39-46},
	abstract = {Bilson has described the empirical finding that the forward exchange rate overestimates the speed of return to equilibrium as a finding of {\textquoteleft}excessive speculation{\textquoteright}, and has drawn implications for the volatility of the exchange rate. The present paper pursues this tack within the sticky-price monetary model made famous by Dornbusch. It is shown theoretically that if the market overestimates the speed of adjustment, the degree of overshooting is reduced. In this sense {\textquoteleft}excessive speculation{\textquoteright} leads to reduced volatility.},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {645344,
	title = {Estimation of Portfolio-Balance Functions that are Mean-Variance Optimizing: The Mark and the Dollar},
	journal = {European Economic Review },
	volume = {23},
	number = {3},
	year = {1983},
	pages = {315-327},
	abstract = {This paper offers a way of efficiently estimating the parameters in demand functions for mark and dollar assets. The technique imposes the constraint that the parameters, rather than being determined arbitrarily, are based on investors{\textquoteright} optimizing behavior regarding expected returns and variances. It dominates some previous empirical applications of finance theory in the respect that the expected returns are allowed to vary from period to period, which is a necessary feature of any macro model. The constraint that the parameters are based on mean-variance optimization is also tested, and not rejected.},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0014292183900351},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@inbook {200646,
	title = {Monetary and Portfolio-Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination},
	booktitle = {Economic Interdependence and Flexible Exchange Rates},
	year = {1983},
	publisher = {MIT Press},
	organization = {MIT Press},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Monetary\&PB\%20Models\%20ExRateDetermtn.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {645338,
	title = {On the Franc},
	journal = {Annales de l{\textquoteright}INSEE},
	volume = {47-48},
	year = {1982},
	abstract = {Six assumptions that any exchange rate theory must take into account are tested on French data: covered interest parity, rational expectations, exchange risk premium, political risk premium, money demand function and slow adjustment to purchasing power parity. The evidence is consistent with what has been found for other countries, with the important qualification that French capital controls require that interest parity be amended. There is a term analogous to a "tax" on foreign assets. The building blocks are then combined in various ways into three alternative exchange rate models: a stickyprice monetary model, protfolio-balance model and synthesis model.},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/20076452  },
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {645337,
	title = {The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks:  A Modification of the Monetary Model},
	journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
	volume = {LXIV},
	number = {3},
	year = {1982},
	abstract = {The failure of Uncovered Interest Parity is usually attributed to the idea that risk makes domestic and foreign bonds imperfect substitutes in investors{\textquoteright} portfolios.\&nbsp; If so, as in the portfolio balance model, the the foreign-domestic return differential should be related to the supplies of foreign and domestic bonds that must be held.\&nbsp; It isn{\textquoteright}t.},
	url = {https://search.proquest.com/docview/217154387},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {645336,
	title = {The 1807-1809 Embargo Against Great Britain},
	journal = {Journal of Economic History},
	volume = {XLII},
	number = {2},
	year = {1982},
	abstract = {The lack of success of the 1807{\textendash}1809 Embargo by the United States has generally been attributed, first, to a lack of effective enforcement, and, second, to an inability to inflict greater economic damage on Great Britain than was suffered by the United States. This paper challenges both explanations. It is argued, first, that the Embargo did effectively reduce both countries to autarky. It is argued, second, that in autarky the relative price in Britain of agricultural products that had previously been imported rose by more than the relative price in the United States of manufactured goods that had previously been imported.},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/18071809-embargo-against-great-britain/797FA6710692AF3E7E8A9820092757CB},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {309866,
	title = {A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure},
	journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
	volume = {64},
	number = {1},
	year = {1982},
	pages = {135-142},
	abstract = {A long-short term spread is often used as a leading indicator of inflation of growth.\&nbsp; But every point along the yield curve offers information.\&nbsp; Thsi paper developed a formula for making use of the term structure along its entire length},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198966,
	title = {In Search of the Exchange Risk Premium: A Six-Currency Test Assuming Mean-Variance Optimization},
	journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance},
	volume = {1},
	year = {1982},
	pages = {255-274},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/InSearchoftheExchangeRiskPremium-6CurrencyTest.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198971,
	title = {A Test of Perfect Substitutability in the Foreign Exchange Market},
	journal = {Southern Economic Journal},
	volume = {48},
	year = {1982},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1058491?uid=3739696\&uid=2\&uid=4\&uid=3739256\&sid=21104673909843},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {200666,
	title = {On the Mark: Reply},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	volume = {71},
	number = {5},
	year = {1981},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198931,
	title = {Tests of Rational Expectations in the Forward Exchange Market},
	journal = {Southern Economic Journal},
	volume = {46},
	number = {4},
	year = {1980},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1057243?uid=3739696\&uid=2\&uid=4\&uid=3739256\&sid=21104673909843},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {200676,
	title = {On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	volume = {69},
	number = {4},
	year = {1979},
	pages = {601-622},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/On\%20the\%20Mark.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {198976,
	title = {The Diversifiability of Exchange Risk},
	journal = {Journal of International Economics},
	volume = {9},
	year = {1979},
	pages = {379-393},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/DiversifiabilityofExchangeRisk.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@unpublished {677857,
	title = {Is There Trade with Other Planets?},
	year = {1978},
	type = {facetious paper},
	abstract = {If you add up countries{\textquoteright} reported trade balances, you don{\textquoteright}t get zero. Is the explanation Errors \&amp; Omissions?\&nbsp; Or does Earth run a trade deficit with other planets?\&nbsp; [As cited by Krugman{\textquoteright}s "Theory of Interstellar Trade."]},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
@article {197351,
	title = {A Model of the Portugese Economy},
	journal = {Economia},
	volume = {1},
	number = {1},
	year = {1977},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel and Andrew Abel and Miguel Beleza and Ray Hill and Paul Krugman}
}
@manuascript {192141,
	title = {Cocoa in Ghana: The Cocoa Farmers, Cocoa Marketing Board, and Elasticity of Supply},
	journal = {MIT Department of Economics},
	year = {1974},
	abstract = {This paper claimed to refute the view that Ghana{\textquoteright}s cocoa farmers could be paid a below-market price by the national marketing board, without adversely affecting their output.\&nbsp; After a review of the history, the elasticity of supply is estimated econometrically.\&nbsp; Local rainfall is an exogenous variable and the lag structure is taken from biological growth pattern of the trees.},
	url = {http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/cocoa_in_ghana.pdf},
	author = {Jeffrey Frankel}
}
