Publications by Date

2004
Frankel J. The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership. The International Economy [Internet]. 2004;18 (2). Publisher's Version
Frankel J, Schmukler SL, Serven L. Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regimes. Journal of International Money and Finance [Internet]. 2004;23 (5) :701-734. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. On the Renminbi: The Choice Between Adjustment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment Under a Flexible Rate. High-Level Seminar on Foreign Exchange System [Internet]. 2004. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Comments on "The Euro, Stabilization Policy, and the Stability and Growth Pact" by Adam Posen. Conference on the Euro at Five [Internet]. 2004;Institute for International Economics. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Is Slovakia the Next Portugal? A Comment on "Is Poland The Next Spain? by Francesco Caselli and Silvana Tenreyo. NBER ISOM [Internet]. 2004. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. IMF Staff Papers [Internet]. 2004;52 (2). Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Program Report on Research in Emerging Markets. NBER IFM [Internet]. 2004. Publisher's Version
2003
Frankel J. "A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export Price (‘PEP’),". International Finance. 2003;(no.1, Spring ) :61-88.Abstract
The question of the optimal monetary regime for small open economies is still wide open. On the one hand, the big selling points of floating exchange rates – monetary independence and accommodation of terms of trade shocks – have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand, proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal anchors have each run aground on their own peculiar shoals. Rigid pegs to the dollar are dangerous when the dollar appreciates. Money targeting doesn’t work when there is a velocity shock. CPI targeting is not viable when there is a large import price shock. And the gold standard fails when there are large fluctuations in the world gold market. This paper advances a new proposal called PEP: Peg the Export Price. Most applicable for countries that are specialized in the production of a particular mineral or agricultural product, the proposal calls on them to commit to fix the price of that commodity in terms of domestic currency. A series of simulations shows how such a proposal would have worked for oil producers over the period 1970-2000. The paths of real oil prices, exports, and debt are simulated under alternative regimes. An illustrative finding is that countries that suffered a declining world market in oil or other export commodities in the late 1990s, would under the PEP proposal have automatically experienced a depreciation and a boost to exports when it was most needed. The argument for PEP is that it simultaneously delivers automatic accommodation to terms of trade shocks, as floating exchange rates are supposed to do, while retaining the credibility-enhancing advantages of a nominal anchor, as dollar pegs are supposed to do.
pep_intfin2003app.pdf
Frankel J. Republican and Democratic Presidents Have Switched Economic Policies. Milken Institute Review [Internet]. 2003;5 (1) :18-25. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations. Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics [Internet]. 2003 :99-109. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Promoting Better National Institutions: The Role of the IMF. IMF Staff Papers [Internet]. 2003;50. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies. Monetary and Financial Cooperation in East Asia [Internet]. 2003. Publisher's Version
Frankel J, Dooley M. Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; 2003. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. What Can an Economic Adviser Do When He Disagrees with the President?. Challenge [Internet]. 2003;46 (3) :29-52. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The author, a member of President Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers, traces a fascinating history, about how fundamental policy differences between economic advisers and presidents have been resolved. Some of the history, which includes two resignations on principle, has never been told,  But what to do under President George W. Bush as budget deficits quickly rise? The author offers his advice to economic advisers.
2002
Frankel J. Foreword. In: Sarno L, Taylor M The Economics of Exchange Rates. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press ; 2002. Link
Frankel J. Comments on the Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies. Asian Economic Papers [Internet]. 2002;1 (2) :127-129. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Economic Policy in Japan and East Asia. Monetary Stability and Economic Growth: A Dialog Between Leading Economists. 2002.
Frankel J. An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income. Quarterly Journal of Economics [Internet]. 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Forward to "The Economics of Exchange Rates" by Lucio Sarno and Mark Taylor. [Internet]. 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations. Background Report for Commision on The UK Outside the Euro [Internet]. 2002. Publisher's Version

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