Publications by Date

Frankel J. Economic Policy in Japan and East Asia. Monetary Stability and Economic Growth: A Dialog Between Leading Economists. 2002.
Frankel J. An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Forward to "The Economics of Exchange Rates" by Lucio Sarno and Mark Taylor. 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations. Background Report for Commision on The UK Outside the Euro. 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J, Saiki A. A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity. Journal of Economic Integration. 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Comment on "Towards a Statutory Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring Lessons from a Corporate Bankruptcy Practice around the World" by Patrick Bolton, in IMF Annual Research Conference. ; 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J, Edwards S. Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Push the Euro Up and the Yen Down. Financial Times Deutscheland. 2002. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Comments on Naoyuki Yoshino and Eisuke Sakakibara's "The Current State of the Japanese Economy and Remedies". Asian Economic Papers. 2002;1 (2). Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Should Gold-Exporters Peg Their Currencies to Gold?. World Gold Council. 2002;Research Study No. 29. Publisher's Version
Frankel J, Orszag P. American Economic Policy in the 1990's. Cambridge: MIT Press; 2002. Publisher's Version Clinton w AEP90s.jpg Cover.jpg
Frankel J, Fajnzylber E, Schmukler S, Serven L. Verifying Exchange Rate Regimes. Journal of Development Economics. 2001;66 (809) :351-386. Publisher's Version
Frankel J, Roubini N. The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises. NBER Working Paper Series. 2001;8634. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Coping with Crises in Emerging Markets: Adjustment versus Financing. Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System. 2001. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Achieving Environmental Goals at Minimum Economic Cost. Edison Electric Institute Advisory Panel on Fuel Diversity. 2000. Link
Frankel J. Comments on 'Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama' by Goldfajn and Olivares. LACEA. 2000. Link
Frankel J. Lecture at IMF Institute, in IMF Survey. Vol 29. 17th ed. ; 2000. Link
Frankel J, Schmukler S, Rodrik D. Verifiability and the Vanishing Immediate Exchange Rate Regime. 2000. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. Comments on "Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama" by Goldfajn and Olivares. Economia. 2000;1 (2) :141-152. Publisher's Version
Frankel J. EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective. In: What Future After the Euro? Rome: Laterza and Figli ; 2000. Publisher's VersionAbstract


Has the euro been a success, in its first 1 ½ years life?   The answer is simple.  It has been a success as a new international currency.  But it has not been a success as a currency in which to invest; that is, it has gone down in value.  These are two distinct aspects of a currency -- the extent to which it is used internationally and its value on the foreign exchange market.   It would be wrong to say that there are no connections whatsoever between international use and foreign exchange value.  Indeed, there are causal links in both directions.  If there is a decline in the use of a currency as a store of value, e.g., if central banks around the world switch their reserves out of that currency into others, that may cause a depreciation.  And conversely, a currency that has a reputation for losing value will not be a good candidate for international use.  But the correlation is less than one would think.  In particular, the rankings of the currencies in international use -- euro, dollar, pound, yen, DM, Swiss franc, SDR -- tend to change quite slowly over time -- on the scale of decades -- whereas the exchange rates among them can change rapidly -- large movements on the scale of months, or even days.  The financial press from time to time goes through a period when it confuses the international currency question with the exchange rate question, and I think it may be doing so again now with the euro.