@workingpaper {686429,
	title = {{\textquotedblleft}Planning for the {\textquotedblleft}Expected Unexpected{\textquotedblright}: Work and Retirement in the US After the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock,{\textquotedblright} NBER WP $\#$ 29653 (January 2022)},
	year = {2022},
	abstract = {
	This chapter analyzes the implications of the unexpected 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic for work and retirement in the U.S.\&nbsp; The pandemic induced the greatest loss of jobs in the shortest period of time in U.S. history.\&nbsp; A slow economic recovery would surely have endangered work longer/retire later policies that seek to adjust the finances of Social Security retirement to an aging population.\&nbsp; Boosted by the huge CARES (March 2020) and ARPA (April 2021) rescue packages, the early recovery from the COVID-19 recession was faster and stronger than the recovery from the 2007-2009 Great Recession.\&nbsp; Even so, the pandemic greatly altered the job market, with workers suffering from long COVID having difficulty returning to work and more workers working from home.\&nbsp; In its immediate effect and potential long-run impact, the pandemic recession/recovery is a wake-up call to the danger that shocks from the natural world pose to work and retirement.\&nbsp; Realistic planning for the future of work and retirement should go beyond analyzing socioeconomic trends to analyzing expected unexpected changes from the natural world as well.

},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w29653},
	author = {Richard B. Freeman}
}
