Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises


Gopinath, Gita, and Brent Neiman. 2013. “Trade Adjustment and Productivity in Large Crises.” American Economic Review 104 (3): 793-831.
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We empirically characterize the mechanics of trade adjustment during the Argentine crisis. Though imports collapsed by 70 percent from 2000-2002, the entry and exit of firms or products at the country level played a small role. The within-firm churning of imported inputs, however, played a sizeable role. We build a model of trade in intermediate inputs with heterogeneous firms, fixed import costs, and roundabout production. Import demand is non-homothetic and the implications of an import price shock depend on the full distribution of firm-level adjustments. An import price shock generates a significant decline in productivity.

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Last updated on 08/11/2014