Transparency Assessment of COVID-19 Models
Jalali MS, DiGennaro C, Sridhar D. Transparency Assessment of COVID-19 Models. The Lancet Global Health 2020;8(12):E1459-E1460.Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic has caused major societal unrest, modelers have worked to project future trends of COVID-19 and predict upcoming challenges and impacts of policy action. These models, alone or in aggregate, are influential for decision-makers at every level. Therefore, the method and documentation of COVID-19 models must be highly transparent to ensure that projections and consequential policies put forth have sound epistemological grounds. We evaluated 29 COVID-19 models receiving high attention levels within the scientific community and/or informing government responses. We evaluated these models against 27 transparency criteria. We found high levels of transparency in model documentation aspects such as reporting uncertainty analysis; however, about half of the models do not share code and a quarter do not report equations. These discrepancies underscore the need for transparency and reproducibility to be at the forefront of researchers’ priorities, especially during a global health crisis when stakes are critically high.
transparency_assessment_covid19.pdf transparency_assessment_covid19_appendix.pdf
How Telemedicine Integrated into China’s Anti-COVID-19 Strategies: Case from a National Referral Center
Li P, Liu X, Mason E, Hu G, Zhou Y, Li W, Jalali MS. How Telemedicine Integrated into China’s Anti-COVID-19 Strategies: Case from a National Referral Center. BMJ Health & Care Informatics 2020;(27):e100164.Abstract

Introduction We present the integration of telemedicine into the healthcare system of West China Hospital of Sichuan University (WCH), one of the largest hospitals in the world with 4300 inpatient beds, as a means for maximising the efficiency of healthcare delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods Implemented on 22 January 2020, the telemedicine technology allowed WCH providers to conduct teleconsultations, telerounds, teleradiology and tele-intensive care unit, which in culmination provided screening, triage and treatment for COVID-19 and other illnesses. To encourage its adoption, the government and the hospital publicised the platform on social media and waived fees.

Discussion From 1 February to 1 April 2020, 10557 online COVID-19 consultations were conducted for 6662 individuals; meanwhile, 32676 patients without COVID completed virtual follow-ups. We discuss that high-quality, secure, affordable and user-friendly telemedical platforms should be integrated into global healthcare systems to help decrease the transmission of the virus and protect healthcare providers from infection.


Trends in Hospitalization Expenditures for Acute Exacerbations of COPD in Beijing from 2009 to 2017
Liang L, Shang Y, Xie W, Shi J, Tong Z, Jalali MS. Trends in Hospitalization Expenditures for Acute Exacerbations of COPD in Beijing from 2009 to 2017. International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease 2020;(15):1165-1175.Abstract
Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the cause of substantial economic and social burden. We investigated trends in hospitalizations for acute exacerbation of COPD in Beijing, China, from 2009 to 2017.
Patients and Methods: Investigations were conducted using data from the discharge records of inpatients that were given a primary diagnosis of acute exacerbation of COPD. The dataset was a retrospective review of information collected from electronic medical records and included 315,116 admissions (159,368 patients). Descriptive analyses and multivariate regressions were used to investigate trends in per admission and per capita expenditures, as well as other potential contributing factors.
Results: The mean per admission expenditures increased from 19,760 CNY ($2893, based on USD/CNY=6.8310) in 2009 to 20,118 CNY ($2980) in 2017 (a growth rate of 0.11%). However, the per capita expenditures increased from 23,716 CNY ($3472) in 2009 to 31,000 CNY ($4538) in 2017 (a growth rate of 1.7%). In terms of per admission expenditures, drug costs accounted for 52.9% of the total expenditures in 2009 and dropped to 39.4% in 2017 (P trend < 0.001). The mean length of stay (LOS) decreased from 16.0 days to 13.5 days (P trend < 0· 001). Age, gender, COPD type, LOS, and hospital level were all associated with per admission and per capita expenditures.
Interpretation: Relatively stable per admission expenditures along with the decline in drug costs and LOS reflect the effectiveness of cost containment on some indicators in China’s health care reform. However, the increase in hospitalization expenditures per capita calls for better policies for controlling hospitalizations, especially multiple admissions.
Patients’ Perceptions of Barriers and Facilitators to the Adoption of e-Hospitals: Cross-sectional Study in Western China
Li P, Luo Y, Yu X, Wen J, Mason E, Li W, Jalali MS. Patients’ Perceptions of Barriers and Facilitators to the Adoption of e-Hospitals: Cross-sectional Study in Western China. Journal of Medical Internet Research 2020;22(6):e17221.Abstract

Background: As an innovative approach to providing web-based health care services from physical hospitals to patients at a distance, e-hospitals (ie, extended care hospitals through the internet) have been extensively developed in China. This closed health care delivery chain was developed by combining e-hospitals with physical hospitals; treatment begins with web-based consultation and registration, and then, patients are diagnosed and treated in a physical hospital. This approach is promising in its ability to improve accessibility, efficiency, and quality of health care. However, there is limited research on end users’ acceptance of e-hospitals and the effectiveness of strategies aimed to prompt the adoption of e-hospitals in China.

Objective: This study aimed to provide insights regarding the adoption of e-hospitals by investigating patients’ willingness to use e-hospitals and analyzing the barriers and facilitators to the adoption of this technology.

Methods: We used a pretested self-administered questionnaire and performed a cross-sectional analysis in 1032 patients across three hierarchical hospitals in West China from June to August 2019. Patients’ sociodemographic characteristics, medical history, current disease status, proficiency with electronic devices, previous experience with web-based health services, willingness to use e-hospitals, and perceived facilitators and barriers were surveyed. Multiple significance tests were employed to examine disparities across four age groups, as well as those between patients who were willing to use e-hospitals and those who were not. Multivariate logistic regression was also performed to identify the potential predictors of willingness to use e-hospitals.

Results: Overall, it was found that 65.6% (677/1032) of participants were willing to use e-hospitals. The significant predictors of willingness to use e-hospitals were employment status (P=.02), living with children (P<.001), education level (P=.046), information technology skills (P<.001), and prior experience with web-based health care services (P<.001), whereas age, income, medical insurance, and familiarity with e-hospitals were not predictors. Additionally, the prominent facilitators of e-hospitals were convenience (641/677, 94.7%) and accessibility to skilled medical experts (489/677, 72.2%). The most frequently perceived barrier varied among age groups; seniors most often reported their inability to operate technological devices as a barrier (144/166, 86.7%), whereas young participants most often reported that they avoided e-hospital services because they were accustomed to face-to-face consultation (39/52, 75%).

Conclusions: We identified the variables, facilitators, and barriers that play essential roles in the adoption of e-hospitals. Based on our findings, we suggest that efforts to increase the adoption of e-hospitals should focus on making target populations accustomed to web-based health care services while maximizing ease of use and providing assistance for technological inquiries.

Why Employees (Still) Click on Phishing Links: Investigation in Hospitals
Jalali MS, Bruckes M, Westmattelmann D, Schewe G. Why Employees (Still) Click on Phishing Links: Investigation in Hospitals. Journal of Medical Internet Research 2020;22(1):e16775.Abstract

Background: Hospitals have been one of the major targets for phishing attacks. Despite efforts to improve information security compliance, hospitals still significantly suffer from such attacks, impacting the quality of care and the safety of patients.

Objective: This study aimed to investigate why hospital employees decide to click on phishing emails by analyzing actual clicking data.

Methods: We first gauged the factors that influence clicking behavior using the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and integrating trust theories. We then conducted a survey in hospitals and used structural equation modeling to investigate the components of compliance intention. We matched employees’ survey results with their actual clicking data from phishing campaigns.

Results: Our analysis (N=397) reveals that TPB factors (attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control), as well as collective felt trust and trust in information security technology, are positively related to compliance intention. However, compliance intention is not significantly related to compliance behavior. Only the level of employees’ workload is positively associated with the likelihood of employees clicking on a phishing link.

Conclusions: This is one of the few studies in information security and decision making that observed compliance behavior by analyzing clicking data rather than using self-reported data. We show that, in the context of phishing emails, intention and compliance might not be as strongly linked as previously assumed; hence, hospitals must remain vigilant with vulnerabilities that cannot be easily managed. Importantly, given the significant association between workload and noncompliance behavior (ie, clicking on phishing links), hospitals should better manage employees’ workload to increase information security. Our findings can help health care organizations augment employees’ compliance with their cybersecurity policies and reduce the likelihood of clicking on phishing links.

phishing investigation.pdf
Adoption of new medical technologies: The effects of insurance coverage vs continuing medical education
Namin AT, Vahdat V, DiGennaro C, Amid R, Jalali MS. Adoption of new medical technologies: The effects of insurance coverage vs continuing medical education. Health Policy and Technology 2020;9(1):31-41.Abstract

Medical technologies innovate rapidly and responsively to patient needs, but the adoption of the latest technologies in practice can be delayed by lack of knowledge and ability to pay. Customized individually made (CIM) knee implants potentially provide an option for individuals to maintain moderate to high activity levels with fewer surgical revisions following a total knee replacement, however they are costlier upfront. Not only is the technology more expensive, but insurance typically covers around 50% (versus 90% for older off-the-shelf knee implants). We used a recent simulation model and analyzed the effects on overall adoption of CIM through 2026 and found that continuing medical education (CME)—a common intervention to increase the adoption of new medical technologies through increasing practitioner knowledge and comfort with the new technologies—can increase the adoption of CIM to 48% in the short term, but increasing insurance coverage to be equal to OTS knee replacement coverage increases the adoption to 87% in the sustained long term. Efforts to implement CME are well-placed and will increase the rate of adoption, however the combination of CME and increased insurance coverage provides the most benefit, with the technology reaching 80% of the population undergoing total knee replacement by 2021.

adoption of medical technologies, insurance vs education.pdf
The opioid crisis: a contextual, social-ecological framework
Jalali MS, Botticelli M, Hwang R, Koh HK, McHugh RK. The opioid crisis: a contextual, social-ecological framework. Health Research Policy and Systems 2020;18(87)Abstract

The prevalence of opioid use and misuse has provoked a staggering number of deaths over the past two and a half decades. Much attention has focused on individual risks according to various characteristics and experiences. However, broader social and contextual domains are also essential contributors to the opioid crisis such as interpersonal relationships and the conditions of the community and society that people live in. Despite efforts to tackle the issue, the rates of opioid misuse and non-fatal and fatal overdose remain high. Many call for a broad public health approach, but articulation of what such a strategy could entail has not been fully realised. In order to improve the awareness surrounding opioid misuse, we developed a social-ecological framework that helps conceptualise the multivariable risk factors of opioid misuse and facilitates reviewing them in individual, interpersonal, communal and societal levels. Our framework illustrates the multi-layer complexity of the opioid crisis that more completely captures the crisis as a multidimensional issue requiring a broader and integrated approach to prevention and treatment.

The Adoption of New Medical Technologies: The Case of Customized Individually Made Knee Implants
Namin AT, Jalali MS, Vahdat V, Bedair HS, O’Connor MI, Kamarthi S, Isaacs JA. The Adoption of New Medical Technologies: The Case of Customized Individually Made Knee Implants [Internet]. Value in Health 2019;22(4):423-430. Online simulatorAbstract

Objectives: To investigate the impact of insurance coverage on the adoption of customized individually made (CIM) knee implants, and to compare patient outcomes and cost-effectiveness of off-the-shelf (OTS) and CIM implants.

Study Design: A system dynamics simulation model is developed to study adoption dynamics of CIM and meet the research objectives.

Methods: The model reproduced the historical data on primary and revision knee replacement implants obtained from the literature and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Then, the dynamics of adoption of CIM implants were simulated from 2018 to 2026. The rate of 90-day readmission, 3-year revision surgery, recovery period, time savings in operating rooms, and the associated cost within three years of primary knee replacement implants were used as performance metrics.

Results: The simulation results indicate that, by 2026, an adoption rate of 90% for CIM implants can reduce the number of readmissions and revision surgeries by 62% and 39%, respectively, and can save hospitals and surgeons 6% on procedure time, and cut down cumulative healthcare costs by approximately $38 billion.

Conclusions: CIM implants have the potential to deliver high-quality care while decreasing overall healthcare costs, but their adoption requires the expansion of current insurance coverage. This work presents a first systematic study to understand the dynamics of adoption of CIM knee implants and instrumentation. More broadly, the current modeling approach and systems thinking perspective could be utilized to consider the adoption of any emerging customized therapies for personalized medicine.

The Adoption of New Medical Technologies.pdf supporting information.pdf modeling documentation and instruction for reproducibility.pdf
Dynamics of intervention adoption, implementation, and maintenance inside organizations: The case of an obesity prevention initiative
Jalali MS, Rahmandad H, Bullock SL, Lee-Kwan SH, Gittelsohn J, Ammerman A. Dynamics of intervention adoption, implementation, and maintenance inside organizations: The case of an obesity prevention initiative. Social Science & Medicine 2019;224:67-76.Abstract
Overall impact of public health prevention interventions relies not only on the average efficacy of an intervention, but also on the successful adoption, implementation, and maintenance (AIM) of that intervention. In this study, we aim to understand the dynamics that regulate AIM of organizational level intervention programs. We focus on two well-documented obesity prevention interventions, implemented in food carry-outs and stores in low-income urban areas of Baltimore, Maryland, which aimed to improve dietary behaviour for adults by providing access to healthier foods and point-of-purchase promotions. Building on data from field observations, in-depth interviews, and data discussed in previous publications, as well as the strategy and organizational behaviour literature, we developed a system dynamics model of the key processes of AIM. With simulation analysis, we show several reinforcing mechanisms that span stakeholder motivation, communications, and implementation quality and costs can turn small changes in the process of AIM into big difference in the overall impact of the intervention. Specifically, small changes in the allocation of resources to communication with stakeholders of intervention could have a nonlinear long-term impact if those additional resources can turn stakeholders into allies of the intervention, reducing the erosion rates and enhancing sustainability. We present how the dynamics surrounding communication, motivation, and erosion can create significant heterogeneity in the overall impact of otherwise similar interventions. Therefore, careful monitoring of how those dynamics unfold, and timely adjustments to keep the intervention on track are critical for successful implementation and maintenance.
dynamics of intervention adoption.pdf Vensim Files
Health Care and Cybersecurity: Bibliometric Analysis of the Literature
Jalali MS, Razak S, Gordon W, Perakslis E, Madnick S. Health Care and Cybersecurity: Bibliometric Analysis of the Literature. Journal of Medical Internet Research 2019;21(2):e12644.Abstract

Background: Over the past decade, clinical care has become globally dependent on information technology. The cybersecurity of health care information systems is now an essential component of safe, reliable, and effective health care delivery.
Objective: The objective of this study was to provide an overview of the literature at the intersection of cybersecurity and health care delivery.
Methods: A comprehensive search was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science for English-language peer-reviewed articles. We carried out chronological analysis, domain clustering analysis, and text analysis of the included articles to generate a high-level concept map composed of specific words and the connections between them.
Results: Our final sample included 472 English-language journal articles. Our review results revealed that majority of the articles were focused on technology: Technology–focused articles made up more than half of all the clusters, whereas managerial articles accounted for only 32% of all clusters. This finding suggests that nontechnological variables (human–based and organizational aspects, strategy, and management) may be understudied. In addition, Software Development SecurityBusiness Continuity, and Disaster Recovery Planning each accounted for 3% of the studied articles. Our results also showed that publications on Physical Security account for only 1% of the literature, and research in this area is lacking. Cyber vulnerabilities are not all digital; many physical threats contribute to breaches and potentially affect the physical safety of patients.
Conclusions: Our results revealed an overall increase in research on cybersecurity and identified major gaps and opportunities for future work.

cybersecurity in healthcare.pdf
The Internet of Things Promises New Benefits and Risks: A Systematic Analysis of Adoption Dynamics of IoT Products
Jalali MS, Kaiser JP, Siegel M, Madnick S. The Internet of Things Promises New Benefits and Risks: A Systematic Analysis of Adoption Dynamics of IoT Products. IEEE Security and privacy 2019;17(2):39-48. Adoption_dynamics_of_IoT_products.pdf
Cybersecurity in Hospitals: a Systematic, Organizational Perspective
Jalali MS, Kaiser JP. Cybersecurity in Hospitals: a Systematic, Organizational Perspective. Journal of Medical Internet Research 2018;20(5):e10059.Abstract

Background: Cybersecurity incidents are a growing threat to the health care industry in general and hospitals in particular. The health care industry has lagged behind other industries in protecting its main stakeholder (ie, patients), and now hospitals must invest considerable capital and effort in protecting their systems. However, this is easier said than done because hospitals are extraordinarily technology-saturated, complex organizations with high end point complexity, internal politics, and regulatory pressures.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop a systematic and organizational perspective for studying (1) the dynamics of cybersecurity capability development at hospitals and (2) how these internal organizational dynamics interact to form a system of hospital cybersecurity in the United States.

Methods: We conducted interviews with hospital chief information officers, chief information security officers, and health care cybersecurity experts; analyzed the interview data; and developed a system dynamics model that unravels the mechanisms by which hospitals build cybersecurity capabilities. We then use simulation analysis to examine how changes to variables within the model affect the likelihood of cyberattacks across both individual hospitals and a system of hospitals.

Results: We discuss several key mechanisms that hospitals use to reduce the likelihood of cybercriminal activity. The variable that most influences the risk of cyberattack in a hospital is end point complexity, followed by internal stakeholder alignment. Although resource availability is important in fueling efforts to close cybersecurity capability gaps, low levels of resources could be compensated for by setting a high target level of cybersecurity.

Conclusions: To enhance cybersecurity capabilities at hospitals, the main focus of chief information officers and chief information security officers should be on reducing end point complexity and improving internal stakeholder alignment. These strategies can solve cybersecurity problems more effectively than blindly pursuing more resources. On a macro level, the cyber vulnerability of a country’s hospital infrastructure is affected by the vulnerabilities of all individual hospitals. In this large system, reducing variation in resource availability makes the whole system less vulnerable—a few hospitals with low resources for cybersecurity threaten the entire infrastructure of health care. In other words, hospitals need to move forward together to make the industry less attractive to cybercriminals. Moreover, although compliance is essential, it does not equal security. Hospitals should set their target level of cybersecurity beyond the requirements of current regulations and policies. As of today, policies mostly address data privacy, not data security. Thus, policy makers need to introduce policies that not only raise the target level of cybersecurity capabilities but also reduce the variability in resource availability across the entire health care system.

Cybersecurity in hospitals.pdf
Decision-Making and Biases in Cybersecurity Capability Development: Evidence from a Simulation Game Experiment
Jalali MS, Siegel M, Madnick S. Decision-Making and Biases in Cybersecurity Capability Development: Evidence from a Simulation Game Experiment. Journal of Strategic Information Systems 2018;Abstract

We developed a simulation game to study the effectiveness of decision-makers in overcoming two complexities in building cybersecurity capabilities: potential delays in capability development; and uncertainties in predicting cyber incidents. Analyzing 1479 simulation runs, we compared the performances of a group of experienced professionals with those of an inexperienced control group. Experienced subjects did not understand the mechanisms of delays any better than inexperienced subjects; however, experienced subjects were better able to learn the need for proactive decision-making through an iterative process. Both groups exhibited similar errors when dealing with the uncertainty of cyber incidents. Our findings highlight the importance of training for decision-makers with a focus on systems thinking skills, and lay the groundwork for future research on uncovering mental biases about the complexities of cybersecurity.

decision-making in cybersecurity.pdf
Jalali M, Russell B, Razak S, Gordon W. EARS to Cyber Incidents in Health Care. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 2018;:1-10.Abstract

Background: Connected medical devices and electronic health records have added important functionality to patient care, but have also introduced a range of cybersecurity concerns. When a healthcare organization suffers from a cybersecurity incident, its incident response strategies are critical to the success of its recovery.

Objective: In this article, we identify gaps in research concerning cybersecurity response plans in healthcare. Through a systematic literature review, we develop aggregated strategies that professionals can use to construct better response strategies in their organizations.

Methods: We reviewed journal articles on cyber incident response plans in healthcare published in PubMed and Web of Science. We sought to collect articles on the intersection of cybersecurity and healthcare that focused on incident response strategies.​

​​​​​​Results: We identified and reviewed 13 articles for cybersecurity response recommendations. We then extracted information such as research methods, findings, and implications. Finally, we synthesized the recommendations into a framework of eight aggregated response strategies (EARS) that fall under managerial and technological categories.

Conclusions: We conducted a systematic review of the literature on cybersecurity response plans in healthcare and developed a novel framework for response strategies that could be deployed by healthcare organizations. More work is needed to evaluate incident response strategies in healthcare.

EARS Framework.pdf
Minimization of Drug Shortages in Pharmaceutical Supply Chains: A Simulation-Based Analysis of Drug Recall Patterns and Inventory Policies
Azghandi R, Griffin J, Jalali MS. Minimization of Drug Shortages in Pharmaceutical Supply Chains: A Simulation-Based Analysis of Drug Recall Patterns and Inventory Policies. Complexity 2018;:1-14.Abstract

The drug shortage crisis in the last decade not only increased health care costs but also jeopardized patients’ health across the United States. Ensuring that any drug is available to patients at health care centers is a problem that official health care administrators and other stakeholders of supply chains continue to face. Furthermore, managing pharmaceutical supply chains is very complex, as inevitable disruptions occur in these supply chains (exogenous factors), which are then followed by decisions members make after such disruptions (internal factors). Disruptions may occur due to increased demand, a product recall, or a manufacturer disruption, among which product recalls—which happens frequently in pharmaceutical supply chains—are least studied. We employ a mathematical simulation model to examine the effects of product recalls considering different disruption profiles, e.g., the propagation in time and space, and the interactions of decision makers on drug shortages to ascertain how these shortages can be mitigated by changing inventory policy decisions. We also measure the effects of different policy approaches on supply chain disruptions, using two performance measures: inventory levels and shortages of products at health care centers. We then analyze the results using an approach similar to data envelopment analysis to characterize the efficient frontier (best inventory policies) for varying cost ratios of the two performance measures as they correspond to the different disruption patterns. This analysis provides insights into the consequences of choosing an inappropriate inventory policy when disruptions take place.

Drug Shortage.pdf
Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder
Ghaffarzadegan N, Larson RC, Fingerhut H, Jalali MS, Ebrahimvandi A, Quaadgras A, Kochan T. Model-Based Policy Analysis to Mitigate Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. In: Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics. Springer; 2018 p. 387-406.Abstract

A wide range of modeling methods have been used to inform health policies. In this chapter, we describe three models for understanding the complexities of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a major mental disorder. The models are: (1) a qualitative model describing the social and psychological complexities of PTSD treatment; (2) a system dynamics model of a population of PTSD patients in the military and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA); and (3) a Monte Carlo simulation model of PTSD prevalence and clinical demand over time among the OEF/OIF population. These models have two characteristics in common. First, they take systems approaches. In all models, we set a large boundary and look at the whole system, incorporating both military personnel and veterans. Second, the models are informed by a wide range of qualitative and quantitative data. Model I is rooted in qualitative data, and models II and III are calibrated to several data sources. These models are used to analyze the effects of different policy alternatives, such as more screening, more resiliency, and better recruitment procedures, on PTSD prevalence. They also provide analysis of healthcare costs in the military and the VA for each policy. Overall, the developed models offer examples of modeling techniques that incorporate a wide range of data sources and inform policy makers in developing programs for mitigating PTSD, a major premise of policy informatics.

PTSD modeling book chapter.pdf
Modeling and Estimating the Feedback Mechanisms among Depression, Rumination, and Stressors in Adolescents
Hosseinichimeh N, Wittenborn AK, Rick J, Jalali MS, Rahmandad H. Modeling and Estimating the Feedback Mechanisms among Depression, Rumination, and Stressors in Adolescents. PLOS ONE 2018;13(9):e0204389.Abstract

The systemic interactions among depressive symptoms, rumination, and stress are important to understanding depression but have not yet been quantified. In this article, we present a system dynamics simulation model of depression that captures the reciprocal relationships among stressors, rumination, and depression. Building on the response styles theory, this model formalizes three interdependent mechanisms: 1) Rumination contributes to ‘keeping stressors alive’; 2) Rumination has a direct impact on depressive symptoms; and 3) Both ‘stressors kept alive’ and current depressive symptoms contribute to rumination. The strength of these mechanisms is estimated using data from 661 adolescents (353 girls and 308 boys) from two middle schools (grades 6–8). These estimates indicate that rumination contributes to depression by keeping stressors ‘alive’—and the individual activated—even after the stressor has ended. This mechanism is stronger among girls than boys, increasing their vulnerability to a rumination reinforcing loop. Different profiles of depression emerge over time depending on initial levels of depressive symptoms, rumination, and stressors as well as the occurrence rate for stressors; levels of rumination and occurrence of stressors are stronger contributors to long-term depression. Our systems model is a steppingstone towards a more comprehensive understanding of depression in which reinforcing feedback mechanisms play a significant role. Future research is needed to expand this simulation model to incorporate other drivers of depression and provide a more holistic tool for studying depression.

Modeling depression.pdf
Dynamics of Implementation and Maintenance of Organizational Health Interventions
Jalali MS, Rahmandad H, Bullock SL, Ammerman A. Dynamics of Implementation and Maintenance of Organizational Health Interventions. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017;14:917.Abstract

In this study, we present case studies to explore the dynamics of implementation and maintenance of health interventions. We analyze how specific interventions are built and eroded, how the building and erosion mechanisms are interconnected, and why we can see significantly different erosion rates across otherwise similar organizations. We use multiple comparative obesity prevention case studies to provide empirical information on the mechanisms of interest, and use qualitative systems modeling to integrate our evolving understanding into an internally consistent and transparent theory of the phenomenon. Our preliminary results identify reinforcing feedback mechanisms, including design of organizational processes, motivation of stakeholders, and communication among stakeholders, which influence implementation and maintenance of intervention components. Over time, these feedback mechanisms may drive a wedge between otherwise similar organizations, leading to distinct configurations of implementation and maintenance processes. 

Dynamics of implementation.pdf
The Effects of Teams’ Initial Characterizations of Interactions on Product Development Performance
Jafari Songhori M, Jalali MS, Terano T. The Effects of Teams’ Initial Characterizations of Interactions on Product Development Performance. Winter Simulation Conference 2017;
A Flexible Method for Aggregation of Prior Statistical Findings
Rahmandad H, Jalali MS, Paynabar K. A Flexible Method for Aggregation of Prior Statistical Findings. PLOS ONE 2017;12:e0175111.Abstract

Rapid growth in scientific output requires methods for quantitative synthesis of prior research, yet current meta-analysis methods limit aggregation to studies with similar designs. Here we describe and validate Generalized Model Aggregation (GMA), which allows researchers to combine prior estimated models of a phenomenon into a quantitative meta-model, while imposing few restrictions on the structure of prior models or on the meta-model. In an empirical validation, building on 27 published equations from 16 studies, GMA provides a predictive equation for Basal Metabolic Rate that outperforms existing models, identifies novel nonlinearities, and estimates biases in various measurement methods. Additional numerical examples demonstrate the ability of GMA to obtain unbiased estimates from potentially mis-specified prior studies. Thus, in various domains, GMA can leverage previous findings to compare alternative theories, advance new models, and assess the reliability of prior studies, extending meta-analysis toolbox to many new problems.