Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?


Jonathan Benchimol, Makram El-Shagi, and Yossi Saadon. In Preparation. “Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?” Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
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Each person's characteristics may influence that person's behaviors and their outcomes. We build and use a new database to estimate experts' performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. We classify experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. An expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.
Last updated on 10/04/2021