Recent Papers

Independent Taxation, Horizontal Equity, and Return-Free Filing (with Daniel Ramsey), Tax Policy and the Economy 33 (July 2019), 

The Decline, Rebound, and Further Rise in SNAP Enrollment: Disentangling Business Cycle Fluctuations and Policy Changes (with Peter Ganong), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 10:4 (November 2018), 153-176.

Using Data to More Rapidly Address Difficult U.S. Social Problems, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 675:1 (January 2018), 166-181.

Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement (with Neale Mahoney), American Economic Review 107:11 (November 2017), 3510-2549.

Understanding the Increase in Disability Insurance Benefit Receipt in the United States, Journal of Economic Perspectives 29:2 (Spring 2015), 123-150.


Research on Tax and Budget Policy

The Deterioration in the U.S. Fiscal Outlook, 2001-2010, Tax Policy and the Economy 27 (October 2013), 1-18.

Earnings Responses to Increases in Payroll Taxes (with Emmanuel Saez), October 2006.

Savings Incentives for Low- and Middle-income Families: Evidence from a Field Experiment with H&R Block (with Esther Duflo, William Gale, Peter Orszag, and Emmanuel Saez), Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (November 2006), 1311-1346.

Fiscal Policy and Social Security Policy During the 1990s (with Douglas Elmendorf and David Wilcox) in American Economic Policy in the 1990s, MIT Press, 2002.

Social Security Reform and National Saving in an Era of Budget Surpluses (with Douglas Elmendorf), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2000:2.

The Middle Class Parent Penalty: Child Benefits in the U.S. Tax Code (with David Ellwood), Tax Policy and the Economy, 2001.


Research on Health Policy

Simple Humans, Complex Insurance, Subtle Subsidies (with Richard Zeckhauser), NBER Working Paper 14330 (September 2008).


Research and Opinion Pieces on Social Security and Social Security Reform

Social Security (with Martin Feldstein).  Handbook of Public Economics. Volume 4. 2002.

Would People Behave Differently If They Better Understood Social Security? Evidence from a Field Experiment (with Erzo Luttmer), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 7:1 (February 2015), 275-299.

Labor Supply Responses to Marginal Social Security Benefits: Evidence from Discontinuities (with Erzo Luttmer and David Seif), Journal of Public Economics, 93(11-12), pp. 1119-1284, December 2009.

Reforming Social Security: Not All Privatization Schemes are Created Equal, Harvard Magazine, March-April, 2005.

Realizing the Potential of China's Social Security Pension System (with Martin Feldstein), China Economic Times, February 24, 2006. English version.

Social Security Meets RaceScience, September 23, 2005, Vol. 309. no. 5743, p. 1965.

Is Social Security Unfair to the Poor? Washington Post, July 29, 2001.

Redistribution in the Current U.S. Social Security System.  In Distributional Aspects of Investment-based Social Security Reform. 

The Distributional Effects of an Investment Based Social Security System (with Martin Feldstein), NBER working paper  7492, January 2000.  In Distributional Aspects of Investment-based Social Security Reform.

The Role of Annuities in a Reformed U.S. Social Security System, AARP Public Policy Institute Report 2002-17, December 2002.


Research on the Earned Income Tax Credit

The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Incentives and Income DistributionTax Policy and the Economy, volume 12, 1998.

Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit (with Nada Eissa), Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1996.

Who are the Ineligible EITC Recipients? National Tax Journal, December 2000.

The Optimal Design of the Earned Income Tax Credit,  In Making Work Pay 2002.

The Earned Income Tax Credit Abroad:  Implications of the British Working Families Tax Credit For Pay-As-You-Earn Administration, (with Janet Holtzblatt), Proceedings of the National Tax Association, 1999.

The EITC Compliance ProblemJoint Center for Policy Research News, Summer 1998.


Research on Housing Policy and Neighborhood Effects

What Can We Learn About Neighborhood Effects from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment? (with Jens Ludwig, Jeffrey Kling, Greg Duncan, Larry Katz, Ronald Kessler, and Lisa Sanbonmatsu), American Journal of Sociology 114 (July 2008), 144-88.

Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects (with Jeffrey Kling and Lawrence Katz), Econometrica 75 (January 2007), 83-119.

Moving to Opportunity in Boston: Early Impacts of a Randomized Mobility Experiment (with Lawrence Katz and Jeffrey Kling), Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2001.

Early Impacts of Moving to Opportunity in Boston: Final Report to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (with Lawrence Katz and Jeffrey Kling). In Choosing a Better Life? Evaluating the Moving to Opportunity Social Experiment. Edited by John Goering and Judith Feins.  Washington: Urban Institute Press, 2003.

Bullets Don't Got No Name: Consequences of Fear in the Ghetto (with Jeffrey Kling and Lawrence Katz). Forthcoming in Discovering Successful Pathways in Children's Development: New Methods in the Study of Childhood and Family Life. Edited by Thomas S. Weisner.  Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2004.

Beyond Treatment Effects: Estimating the Relationship Between Neighborhood Poverty and Individual Outcomes in the MTO Experiment (with Lawrence Katz and Jeffrey Kling). August 2004.

Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects on Youth (with Jeffrey Kling). May 2004.

Moving to Opportunity and Tranquility: Neighborhood Effects on Adult Economic Self-Sufficiency and Health from a Randomized Housing Voucher Experiment (with Jeffrey Kling, Lawrence Katz, and Lisa Sanbonmatsu).  May 2004.


Research on Executive Compensation

The Taxation of Executive Compensation (with Brian Hall), Tax Policy and the Economy, volume 14, 2000.

Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats? (with Brian Hall), Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1998.