We present a new econometric model of aggregate demand and labor supply for the United States. We also analyze the allocation full wealth among time periods for households distinguished by a variety of demographic characteristics. The model is estimated using micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys supplemented with price information obtained from the Consumer Price Index. An important feature of our approach is that aggregate demands and labor supply can be represented in closed form while accounting for the substantial heterogeneity in behavior that is found in household- level data. As a result, we are able to explain the patterns of aggregate demand and labor supply in the data despite using a parametrically parsimonious specification.

This paper presents a comparison of total factor productivity (TFP) levels between the US and Japan for the period 1960–2004 and allocates the gap to individual industries. We carefully distinguish the various concepts of purchasing power parity (PPP) and measure them within the framework of a US–Japan bilateral input–output table. We also measure industry-level PPPs for capital, labor, energy, and materials inputs and output for 42 industries common to the US and Japan, based on detailed estimates for 164 commodities, 33 assets, including land and inventories, and 1596 labor categories. The US–Japan productivity gap shrank during three decades of rapid Japanese economic growth, 1960–1990. The Japanese manufacturing sector achieved parity with its US counterpart by the end of the period. With the collapse of the Japanese economic bubble at the end of the 1980s, the US–Japan productivity gap reversed course and expanded to 79.5% by 2004. This can be attributed to rapid productivity growth in the IT-producing industries in the US during the late 1990s and the sharp acceleration of productivity growth in the IT-using industries in the US during 2000–2004. Wholesale and Retail Trade emerged as the largest contributor to this gap, accounting for 25.1% of the lower TFP of the Japanese economy.

This paper analyzes the impact of investment in information technology (IT) on the recent resurgence of world economic growth. We describe the growth of the world economy, seven regions, and 14 major economies during the period 1989–2004. We allocate the growth of world output between input growth and productivity and find, surprisingly, that input growth greatly predominates! Moreover, differences in per capita output levels are explained by differences in per capita input, rather than variations in productivity. The contributions of IT investment have increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia.

This paper analyzes the industry origins of the American growth resurgence by examining output, input, and productivity growth of 85 component industries for the period 1960 to 2005. We use this detailed industry data to examine trends in particular industry groups such as those that produce information technology (IT) or use IT most intensively and to perform a ‘bottom-up’ comparison of alternative aggregation methodologies. The data show that while labor productivity growth was strong throughout the full period after 1995, there were important differences between 1995–2000 and 2000–2005. The period 1995–2000, for example, was marked by strong growth in labor input so aggregate output was robust, while labor input and output growth both declined substantially after 2000. IT remained an important source of both capital deepening and total factor productivity growth after 2000, but the contributions were not as large as during the technology boom of the late 1990s. We also show that the production possibility frontier, which recognizes differences in output prices across industries, remains the most appropriate methodology for aggregating industry data.

This paper presents new data on the sources of growth for the Japanese economy over the period 1960–2000. The principal innovation is the incorporation of detailed information for individual industries, including those involved in the production of computers, communications equipment, and electronic components as information technology equipment. We show that economic growth is dominated by investments and productivity growth in information technology, both for individual industries and the economy as a whole. We also show that the revival of total factor productivity growth accounts for the modest resurgence of the Japanese economy since 1995.

This paper addresses the impact of investment in information technology (IT) on the recent resurgence of world economic growth. We describe the growth of the world economy, seven regions and 14 major economies during the period 1989–2003. We allocate the growth of world output between input growth and productivity and find, surprisingly, that input growth greatly predominates! The contributions of IT investment have increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. Differences in per capita output are explained by differences in per capita input, rather than by variations in productivity.

Portuguese translation in Manuel Castells and Gustavo Cardoso (eds.), A Sociedad em Reade , Lisbon, Imprensa Nacional, 2006, pp. 65-114.