Croke K, Chokotho L, Milusheva S, Bertfelt J, Karpe S, Mohammed M, Mulwafu W. Implementation of a multi-centre digital trauma registry: Experience in district and central hospitals in Malawi. International Journal of Health Planning and Management [Internet]. 2020 :1-16. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Background: Trauma is a rapidly growing component of the burden of disease in developing countries; yet systematic data collection about trauma in such contexts is relatively rare.

Methods: This paper describes the implementation of a trauma registry in 10 government-run hospitals in Malawi, with a focus on implementation logistics, stakeholder engagement strategies, and data quality procedures.

Results: 51 337 trauma cases were recorded over the first 14 months of registry operations. The number of cases per month, data accuracy, and the geographic coverage of the registry improved over time as data quality measures were implemented.

Conclusions: Multi-center digital trauma registries are feasible in low-resource settings. Stakeholder engagement, periodic in-person and frequent digital follow up with data teams, and regular channeling of findings back to data collection teams help to improve data quality and complete- ness over a 14month period. Financial and staffing constraints remain challenges for sustainability over time, but this experience demonstrates the feasibility of large-scale registry operations.

Croke K, Mengistu AT, O'Connell S, Tafere K. The impact of a health facility construction campaign on health service utilization and outcomes: Analysis of spatially-linked survey and facility location data in Ethiopia. BMJ Global Health [Internet]. 2020. Publisher's Version ethiopia_bmj_final.pdf
Croke K, Yusoff MM, Abdullah Z, Hanafiah ANM, Mokhtaruddin K, Emira Soleha Ramli, Borhan NF, Almodovar-Diaz Y, Atun R, Virk AK. The political economy of health financing reform in Malaysia. Health Policy and Planning [Internet]. 2019;34 (10) :732-739. Publisher's VersionAbstract
There is growing evidence that political economy factors are central to whether or not proposed health financing reforms are adopted, but there is little consensus about which political and institutional factors determine the fate of reform proposals. One set of scholars see the relative strength of interest groups in favour of and opposed to reform as the determining factor. An alternative literature identifies aspects of a country’s political institutions–specifically the number and strength of formal ‘veto gates’ in the political decision-making process—as a key predictor of reform’s prospects. A third group of scholars highlight path dependence and ‘policy feedback’ effects, stressing that the sequence in which health policies are implemented determines the set of feasible reform paths, since successive policy regimes bring into existence patterns of public opinion and interest group mobilization which can lock in the status quo. We examine these theories in the context of Malaysia, a successful health system which has experienced several instances of proposed, but ultimately blocked, health financing reforms. We argue that policy feedback effects on public opinion were the most important factor inhibiting changes to Malaysia’s health financing system. Interest group opposition was a closely related factor; this opposition was particularly powerful because political leaders perceived that it had strong public support. Institutional veto gates, by contrast, played a minimal role in preventing health financing reform in Malaysia. Malaysia’s dramatic early success at achieving near-universal access to public sector healthcare at low cost created public opinion resistant to any change which could threaten the status quo. We conclude by analysing the implications of these dynamics for future attempts at health financing reform in Malaysia.
Chukwuma A, Bossert TJ, Croke K. Health service delivery and political trust in Nigeria. Social Science and Medicine - Population Health [Internet]. 2019;7. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Do improvements in health service delivery affect trust in political leaders in Africa? Citizens expect their government to provide social services. Intuitively, improvements in service delivery should lead to higher levels of trust in and support for political leaders. However, in contexts where inadequate services are the norm, and where political support is linked to ethnic or religious affiliation, there may be weak linkages between improvements in service delivery and changes in trust in political leaders. To examine this question empirically, we take advantage of a national intervention that improved health service delivery in 500 primary health care facilities in Nigeria, to estimate the impact of residence within 10 km of one or more of the intervention facilities on trust in the president, local councils, the ruling party, and opposition parties. Using difference-in-difference models, we show that proximity to the intervention led to increases in trust in the president and the ruling party. By contrast, we find no evidence of increased trust in the local council or opposition parties. Our study also examines the role of ethnicity and religious affiliation in mediating the observed increases in trust in the president. While there is a large literature suggesting that both the targeting of interventions, and the response of citizens to interventions is often mediated by ethnic, geographic or religious identity, by contrast, we find no evidence that the intervention was targeted at the president's ethnic group, zone, or state of origin. Moreover, there is suggestive evidence that the intervention increased trust in the president more among those who did not share these markers of identity with the president. This highlights the possibility that broad-based efforts to improve health services can increase trust in political leaders even in settings where political attitudes are often thought to be mediated by group identity.
Croke K, Atun R. The Long Run Impact of Early Childhood Deworming on Numeracy and Literacy: Evidence from Uganda. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases [Internet]. 2019;13 (1) :e0007085. Publisher's Version croke_atun_deworming.pdf
Bundy DAP, de Silva N, Horton S, Patton GC, Schultz L, Jamison DT, and Group DCP-3 CAHDA. Investment in child and adolescent health and development: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd Edition. The Lancet [Internet]. 2018;391 (10121) :687-699. Publisher's Version
de Neve J-W, Andriantavison RL, Croke K, Krisam J, Rajoela VH, Rakotoarivony RA, Rambeloson V, Schultz LB, Qamruddin J, Verguet S. Health, financial, and education gains of investing in preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases, and lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar: a modeling study. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases [Internet]. 2018;12 (12) :e0007002. Publisher's Version
Bundy DAP, Appleby LJ, Bradley M, Croke K, Hollingsworth TD, Pullan R, Turner HC, de Silva N. 100 Years of Mass Deworming Programmes: A Policy Perspective From the World Bank's Disease Control Priorities Analyses. Advances in Parasitology [Internet]. 2018;100 :127-154. Publisher's Version
Bundy D, Appleby L, Bradley M, Croke K, Hollingsworth TD, Pullan R, Turner HC, de Silva N. Deworming Programs in Middle Childhood and Adolescence. In: Disease Control Priorities: Child and Adolescent Health and Development, Chapter 13. Vol. 8. 3rd ed. Washington DC: World Bank ; 2017. pp. 165-182. Publisher's Version dcp3_cahd_ch_13.pdf
Croke K, Ishengoma DS, Francis F, Makani J, Kamugisha ML, Lusingu J, Lemnge M, Larreguy H, Fink G, Mmbando BP. Relationships between sickle cell trait, malaria, and educational outcomes in Tanzania. BMC Infectious Diseases [Internet]. 2017;17 :568. Publisher's VersionAbstract


Sickle Cell Trait (SCT) has been shown to be protective against malaria. A growing literature suggests that malaria exposure can reduce educational attainment. This study assessed the relationship and interactions between malaria, SCT and educational attainment in north-eastern Tanzania.


Seven hundred sixty seven children were selected from a list of individuals screened for SCT. Febrile illness and malaria incidence were monitored from January 2006 to December 2013 by community health workers. Education outcomes were extracted from the Korogwe Health and Demographic Surveillance system in 2015. The primary independent variables were malaria and SCT. The association between SCT and the number of fever and malaria episodes from 2006 to 2013 was analyzed. Main outcomes of interest were school enrolment and educational attainment in 2015.


SCT was not associated with school enrolment (adjusted OR 1.42, 95% CI [0.593,3.412]) or highest grade attained (adjusted grade difference 0.0597, 95% CI [−0.567, 0.686]). SCT was associated with a 29% reduction in malaria incidence (adjusted IRR 0.71, 95% CI [0.526, 0.959]) but not with fever incidence (adjusted IRR 0.905, 95% CI [0.709-1.154]). In subgroup analysis of individuals with SCT, malaria exposure was associated with reduced school enrollment (adjusted OR 0.431, 95% CI [0.212, 0.877]).


SCT appears to reduce incidence of malaria. Overall, children with SCT do not appear to attend more years of school; however children who get malaria despite SCT appear to have lower levels of enrolment in education than their peers.

Croke K, Hicks JH, Hsu E, Kremer M, Miguel E. Should the WHO withdraw support for mass deworming?. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases [Internet]. 2017;11 (6) :e0005481. Publisher's Version plos_ntds.pdf
Croke K, Hsu E, Kremer M. More Evidence on the Effects of Deworming: What Lessons Can We Learn?. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene [Internet]. 2017;96 (6) :1265-66. Publisher's Version what_lessons_can_we_learn.pdf
Croke K. Commentary: Exploiting randomized exposure to early childhood deworming programmes to study long-run effects: A research programme in progress. International Journal of Epidemiology [Internet]. 2017. Publisher's Version ije_final_pre-print.pdf
Croke K. Tools of Single Party Hegemony in Tanzania: Evidence from Surveys and Survey Experiments. Democratization [Internet]. 2017; 24 (2) :189-208. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Political systems dominated by a single party are common in the developing world, including in countries that hold regular elections. Yet we lack knowledge about the strategies by which these regimes maintain political dominance. This article presents evidence from Tanzania, a paradigmatic dominant party regime, to demonstrate how party institutions are used instrumentally to ensure the regime's sustained control. First, I show that the ruling party maintains a large infrastructure of neighbourhood representatives, and that in the presence of these agents, citizens self-censor about their political views. Second, I provide estimates of the frequency with which politicians give goods to voters around elections, demonstrating that such gifts are more common in Tanzania than previous surveys suggest. Third, I use a survey experiment to test respondents’ reaction to information about corruption. Few voters change their preferences upon receipt of this information. Taken together, this article provides a detailed picture of ruling party activities at the micro-level in Tanzania. Citizens conceal opposition sympathies from ten cell leaders, either because they fear punishment or seek benefits. These party agents can monitor citizens’ political views, facilitating clientelist exchange. Finally, citizens’ relative insensitivity to clientelism helps explain why politicians are not punished for these strategies.

Croke K, Grossman G, Larreguy HA, Marshall J. Deliberate Disengagement: How Education Can Decrease Political Participation in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes. American Political Science Review [Internet]. 2016;110 (3) :579-600. Publisher's VersionAbstract

A large literature examining advanced and consolidating democracies suggests that education increases political participation. However, in electoral authoritarian regimes, educated voters may instead deliberately disengage. If education increases critical capacities, political awareness, and support for democracy, educated citizens may believe that participation is futile or legitimizes autocrats. We test this argument in Zimbabwe—a paradigmatic electoral authoritarian regime—by exploiting cross-cohort variation in access to education following a major educational reform. We find that education decreases political participation, substantially reducing the likelihood that better-educated citizens vote, contact politicians, or attend community meetings. Consistent with deliberate disengagement, education’s negative effect on participation dissipated following 2008’s more competitive election, which (temporarily) initiated unprecedented power sharing. Supporting the mechanisms underpinning our hypothesis, educated citizens experience better economic outcomes, are more interested in politics, and are more supportive of democracy, but are also more likely to criticize the government and support opposition parties.

cglm_sept2015.pdf onlineappendix.pdf
Udoha NK, Ohiri K, Chima CC, Ogundeji YK, Rone A, Nwangwu CW, Lanthorn H, Croke K, Reich MR. Influence of Organizational Structure and Administrative Processes on the Performance of State-Level Malaria Programs in Nigeria. Health Systems and Reform [Internet]. 2016;2 (4) :331-356. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Studies have found links between organizational structure and performance of public organizations. Considering the wide variation in uptake of malaria interventions and outcomes across Nigeria, this exploratory study examined how differences in administrative location (a dimension of organizational structure), the effectiveness of administrative processes (earmarking and financial control, and communication), leadership (use of data in decision making, state ownership, political will, and resourcefulness), and external influences (donor influence) might explain variations in performance of state malaria programs in Nigeria. We hypothesized that states with malaria program administrative structures closer to state governors will have greater access to resources, greater political support, and greater administrative flexibility and will therefore perform better. To assess these relationships, we conducted semistructured interviews across three states with different program administrative locations: Akwa-Ibom, Cross River, and Niger. Sixty-five participants were identified through a snowballing approach. Data were analyzed using a thematic framework. State program performance was assessed across three malaria service delivery domains (prevention, diagnosis, and treatment) using indicators from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2008 and 2013. Cross River State was best performing based on 2013 prevention data (usage of insecticide-treated bednets), and Niger State ranked highest in diagnosis and treatment and showed the greatest improvement between 2008 and 2013. We found that organizational structure (administrative location) did not appear to be determinative of performance but rather that the effectiveness of administrative processes (earmarking and financial control), strong leadership (assertion of state ownership and resourcefulness of leaders in overcoming bottlenecks), and donor influences differed across the three assessed states and may explain the observed varying outcomes.

Croke K, Dabalen A, Hoogeveen J, Demombynes G, Giugale M. Collecting High Frequency Panel Data in Africa Using Mobile Phones. Canadian Journal of Development Studies. 2014;35 (1).Abstract
As mobile phone ownership rates have risen in Africa, there is increased interest in using mobile telephony as a data collection platform. This paper draws on two pilot projects that use mobile phone interviews for data collection in Tanzania and South Sudan. In both cases, high frequency panel data have been collected on a wide range of topics in a manner that is cost effective, flexible and rapid. Attrition has been problematic in both surveys, but can be explained by the resource and organisational constraints that both surveys faced. We analyse the drivers of attrition to generate ideas for how to improve performance in future mobile phone surveys.
Croke K. Governance and Child Mortality Decline in Tanzania and Uganda, 1995-2007. Studies in Comparative International Development. 2012;47 (4) :441-463.Abstract
This article identifies political economy factors that help explain dramatic differences in the pace of child mortality reduction between Tanzania and Uganda from 1995 to 2007. The existing literature largely explains divergence in basic health outcomes with reference to economic variables such as GDP per capita. However, these factors cannot explain recent divergence across African countries with similar levels of GDP per capita, rates of economic growth, and levels of health funding. I argue that institutional and governance divergences between Tanzania and Uganda can be linked directly to differing coverage levels of key child health interventions (especially related to malaria control), and thus to differing child health outcomes. These institutional differences can be explained in part by historical factors, but more relevant causes can be found in recent political events. In Tanzania, there was an unusually effective project of institution building in the health sector, while in Uganda, by contrast, there was a negative political shock to the health system. This was driven by the repatrimonialization of the Ugandan state after President Yoweri Museveni’s decision to eliminate term limits in the 2001–2006 period. This repatrimonialization process reversed previous health sector institutional gains and had particularly negative effects on child health service delivery in Uganda over the period in question.