Working Paper
Maxwell Palmer, Benjamin Schneer, and Kevin DeLuca. Working Paper. “A Partisan Solution to Partisan Gerrymandering: The Define-Combine Procedure”. DraftAbstract
Redistricting reformers have proposed many solutions to the problem of partisan gerrymandering, including non-partisan commissions and bipartisan commissions with members from each party. Redistricting litigation frequently ends with court- or special-master-drawn plans. All of these methods require either bipartisan consensus or the agreement of both parties on the legitimacy of a neutral third party to resolve disputes. In this paper we propose a new method for drawing districting maps, the Define-Combine procedure, that substantially reduces partisan gerrymandering without requiring a neutral third party or bipartisan agreement. First, one party defines a map of 2N equal-population contiguous districts. Then the second party combines pairs of contiguous districts to create the final map of N districts. We use simulations and map-drawing algorithms to show that this procedure reduces the advantage conferred to the party controlling the redistricting process and leads to less biased maps without requiring cooperation or non-partisan actors.
Kevin DeLuca and John A. Curiel. Working Paper. “Validating the Applicability of BISG to Congressional Redistricting”. DraftAbstract
Ensuring descriptive representation of racial minorities without packing them into districts is difficult in states that do not collect race data on their voters. One advance since the 2010 redistricting cycle is the advent of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which greatly improves upon previous ecological inference methods in identifying voter race. In this article, we test the viability of employing BISG to create efficient minority majority districts. We validate BISG through 10,000 redistricting simulations of North Carolina and Georgia’s congressional districts and compare BISG estimates to actual voter file racial data. We find that summing the BISG probabilities leads to significantly lower error rates at the precinct and district level relative to the plurality method of assigning race, and therefore should be the preferred method when using BISG for redistricting. Our results suggest that BISG can help with the construction of efficient minority majority districts.
In Preparation
Kevin DeLuca and James Brand. In Preparation. “Gerrymandering and Incumbency Advantages: Explaining Diverging Trends”.
Kevin DeLuca and Boyd Garriott. In Preparation. “Preserving Geographic Communities through the MSA-Test: A Non-Partisan Solution to Partisan Gerrymandering”.
Alexander Podkul, Kevin DeLuca, Eduard Krkoska, Stephen Ansolabehere, Raymond Duch, Scott Tranter, and Liberty Vittert. Submitted. “Fear Over Risk: Effective Communication Amidst a Pandemic.” Harvard Data Science Review.Abstract
In light of the recent Coronavirus pandemic, this paper seeks to inform policy-makers by exploring what information is important for a public health campaign aiming to slow the spread of the virus. In particular, this paper estimates the extent to which the public understands exponential growth, and whether or not individuals who understand exponential growth are more willing to participate in measures to slow the spread of the virus. Using survey data from Chile, China, Italy, and the United States we find that, in general, the public has a poor understanding of exponential growth, but also that those who do have a better understanding of exponential growth are not more likely to participate in social distancing behavior than others. Instead, we find that an individual's degree of worry or fear is a much stronger predictor of willingness to take measures to slow the spread of COVID-19. Our results suggest that public health campaigns aimed at informing the public about growth rates or probabilistic risks of getting infected will be less effective than ones that make direct emotional appeals warning people about the dangers of COVID-19.
Kevin DeLuca. 11/3/2020. “Spotlight on Texas: Record Breaking Early Vote Turnout.” Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project. Blog Post
Kevin DeLuca, Sam Pauley, and Emerson Webb. 11/2/2020. Georgia Mail Ballot Trends. Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project. Online Report
Julia Ansolabehere, Colin McIntyre, Kevin DeLuca, Krithika Iyer, and Diana Cao. 10/27/2020. Voter Registration Summary by State. Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project. Online Report
Kevin DeLuca. 9/15/2020. Georgia Primary Election Analysis. Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project. Online Report
Kevin DeLuca and Blair Read. 9/14/2020. Texas Primary Election Analysis. Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project. Online Report