Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2363, March 1990. Reprinted in BehavioralFinance, edited by H. Shefrin, part of the International Library of Critical Writings inFinancial Economics, edited by R. Roll. London: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2000.
Revision of "Findings of Forward Discount Bias Interpreted in Light of Exchange Rate Survey Data," NBER Working Paper No. 1963 and Sloan Working Paper No. 1906-87, August 1987.
Reprinted in Advances in Behavioral Finance, edited by Richard Thaler. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993: 359-382 and in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001.