Abstract:

Policymakers must now assume that Iran has the enriched uranium it needs to build a nuclear weapon. Containment is a failure as Iran’s breakout time is now essentially at zero. [Additional background for non-scientists is appended]. According to estimates prepared from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)  reports and Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS),  Iran now has sufficient stores of highly enriched uranium (e.g., HEU or 60 percent enriched uranium ) to fashion a crude nuclear weapon. [1] As I predicted in March, Iran now has sufficient HEU, the required centrifuges, and the skill to rapidly increase enrichment of weapon-grade uranium (e.g., WGU or 90 percent enriched uranium) within a few weeks. [2] … (download to read more)

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