Publications

2020
Hicks, Joan Harmony, Edward Miguel, Michael Walker, Michael Kremer, and Sarah Baird. 2020. “Twenty Year Economic Impacts of Deworming.” Working Paper.
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Goodkin-Gold, Matthew, Michael Kremer, Christopher M. Snyder, and Heidi Williams. 2020. “Optimal Subsidies for Prevention of Infectious Disease.” Working Paper. Abstract

Most economists would agree that the positive externalities caused by prevention of

infectious disease create a prima facie case for subsidies. However, little is known about the appropriate magnitude of these subsidies, or about whether the level of such subsidies should vary across diseases. We integrate a standard epidemiological model with an economic model of consumer and producer behavior to address these questions. Across a continuum of market structures, we find that the equilibrium steady-state marginal externality is non-monotonic in disease transmissiblity, peaking when the disease is just transmissible enough to survive in steady-state. This pattern implies that marginal externalities—and, as we show, optimal subsidies—are higher for serious but rare diseases relative to diseases with lower individual burden but higher disease prevalence. Crude calibrations suggest that optimal subsidies for technologies such as vaccines, condoms, and mosquito nets, which prevent infectious diseases, may be very large relative to current levels.
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Kremer, Michael, Jonathan Levin, and Christopher M. Snyder. 2020. “Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience.” Forthcoming American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings.
PDF Appendix.docx
2019
Kremer, Michael, Jonathan Levin, and Christopher M. Snyder. 2019. “Designing Advance Market Commitments for New Vaccines.” Working Paper. Abstract

 

Abstract: Advance market commitments (AMCs) have been proposed as mechanisms to stimulate investment by suppliers of products to low-income countries, where familiar mechanisms such as patents and prizes can fall short. In an AMC, donors commit to a fund from which a specified subsidy is paid per unit purchased by low-income countries until the fund is exhausted, strengthening suppliers’ incentives to invest in research, development, and capacity. A $1.5 billion pilot AMC was undertaken to speed the roll out of a pneumococcus vaccine to the developing world covering additional strains prevalent there.

This paper undertakes the first formal analysis of AMCs. We construct a model in which an altruistic donor bargains with a supplier on behalf of a low-income country over vaccine price and quantity ex post, after the supplier has sunk ex ante investments. We use this model to explain the broad logic of an AMC—as a solution to a hold-up problem—as well as to analyze specific features of the pilot’s design that we argue enhance its efficiency. We study a variety of design features including capacity forcing, supply commitments, price ceilings, and accrued interest, and consider a variety of economic environments including competing suppliers, competing demand from middle-income countries outside the program. We show that optimal AMC design differs markedly depending on where the product is in its development cycle.

 

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Kremer, Michael, Sasha Gallant, Olga Rostapshova, and Milan Thomas. 2019. “Is Development Innovation a Good Investment? Which Innovations Scale? Evidence on Social Investing from USAID's Development Innovation Ventures.” Working Paper.
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Fabregas, Raissa, Michael Kremer, and Frank Schilbach. 2019. “Realizing the potential of digital development: the case of agricultural advice.” Science 366 (6471). Publisher's Version Abstract

The abstract can be found here

The site for printing the article can be found here

Casaburi, Lorenzo, Michael Kremer, Sendhidl Mullainathan, and Ravindra Ramrattan. 2019. “Harnessing ICT to Increase Agricultural Production: Evidence from Kenya.” Working Paper.
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Bouguen, Adrien, Yue Huang, Michael Kremer, and Edward Miguel. 2019. “Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics.” Annual Review of Economics 11: 523-61. Publisher's Version
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Kremer, Michael, Gautam Rao, and Frank Schilbach. 2019. “Behavioral Development Economics.” Handbook of Behavioral Economics, Douglas Bernheim, Stefano DellaVigna, and David Laibson (eds.).
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2018
Jack, William, Michael Kremer, Joost de Laat, and Tavneet Suri. 2018. “Borrowing Requirements, Credit Access, and Adverse Selection: Evidence from Kenya.” Working Paper. Abstract

 

We study asset collateralized loans for water tanks in Kenya. On replacing loans with high down payments and stringent guarantor requirements with the asset collateralized loans, the take-up of loans increased from 2.4% to 41.9% and we show that the loans had real impacts on households. A Karlan-Zinman test based on waiving borrowing requirements ex post finds evidence of adverse selection with lowered deposit requirements, but no evidence of moral hazard. A simple model and rough calibration suggests that adverse selection may deter lenders from making welfare-improving loans with lower deposit requirements, even after introducing asset collateralization.

 

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2017
Hoffmann, Vivian, Pamela Jakiela, Michael Kremer, Ryan Sheely, and Matthew Goodkin-Gold. 2017. “There is No Place like Home: Theory and Evidence on Decentralization and Politician Preferences.” Working Paper.
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Ahuja, Amrita, Sarah Baird, Joan Hamory Hicks, Michael Kremer, and Edward Miguel. 2017. “Economics of Mass Deworming Programs.” Disease Control Priorities: Child and Adolescent Health and Development 8: 413-422.
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Croke, Kevin, Eric Hsu, and Michael Kremer. 2017. “More Evidence on the Effects of Deworming: What Lessons Can We Learn?” American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 96 (6): 1265-1266. Publisher's Version
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Croke, Kevin, Joan Hamory Hicks, Eric Hsu, Michael Kremer, and Edward Miguel. 2017. “Should the WHO Withdraw Support for Mass Deworming?” PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11 (6): e0005481. Publisher's Version
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Jack, William, Michael Kremer, Joost de Laat, and Tavneet Suri. 2017. “Borrowing Requirements, Credit Access, and Adverse Selection: Evidence from Kenya.” Working Paper.
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2016
Croke, Kevin, Joan Hamory Hicks, Eric Hsu, Michel Kremer, and Edward Miguel. 2016. “Does Mass Deworming Affect Child Nutrition? Meta-analysis, Cost-effectiveness, and Statistical Power”.
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Banerjee, Abhijit, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer. 2016. “The Influence of Randomized Controlled Trials on Development Economics Research and on Development Policy.” The State of Economics, the State of The World Conference at the World Bank.
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Baird, Sarah, Joan Hamory Hicks, Michael Kremer, and Edward Miguel. 2016. “Worms at Work: Long-Run Impacts of a Child Health investment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (4): 1637-1680. Publisher's Version
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