• "Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes" (with Omer F. Orsun and Robert Schub) International Interactions December 2017 doi: 10.1080/03050629.2017.1414810
  • "Give Peace a (Second) Chance: The Viability of Bilateral Deals to Avoid Nuclear Proliferation and War" (with Andrew Coe) Conditional Acceptance at International Studies Quarterly. PDF
  • "Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Uncertainty and Conflict in International Relations." (with Robert Schub) Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics September 2017 doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.537 PDF Link
  • "Peaceful Uncertainty: When Power Shocks Do Not Create Commitment Problems" (with Robert Schub) Accepted for Publication at International Studies Quarterly PDF
  • "A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War'' (with Andrew Coe)  International Organization 2016, vol. 70 no. 4 pp. 655-685 Link PDF
  • "Natural Disasters and the Size of Nations" (with Elena McLean) International Interactions 2016, vol 42, Issue 5, pp. 677-702  Link
  • "Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset" (with Robert Schub) International Studies Quarterly  2016, 2016 vol. 60, Issue 3, pp. 552-564 PDF
  • "How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset" (with Robert Schub) Journal of Conflict Resolution doi: 0022002714553110, 2016 vol. 60 no. 6 pp. 1099-1128 PDF
  • "Adverse Selection and Growth under IMF Programs" (with Randall Stone) The Review of International Organizations March 2014, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp 1-28 Link PDF
  • "Knowing One's Future Preferences: A Correlated Agent Model with Bayesian Updating" (with Curt Signorino and Taehee Whang) The Journal of Theoretical Politics January 2014 vol. 26 no. 1 3-34 Link PDF
  • "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models" Conflict Management and Peace Science November 2012 vol. 29 no. 5 490-520 Link PDF
  • "Arms Diffusion and War" (with Andrew Coe)  Journal of Conflict Resolution  August 2012 vol. 56 no. 4 651-674 Link PDF
  • "Democratic Inefficiency? Regime Type and Suboptimal Choices in International Politics"  Journal of Conflict Resolution October 2012 vol. 56 no. 5 799-824 Link PDF
  • "Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models" Political Analysis 16(1) (with Curtis S. Signorino and Robert W. Walker) Winner of the Warren Miller Prize for the Best Article Published in Political Analysis in 2008. PDF


  • "Expecting the Unexpected: Disaster Risks and Conflict" (with Elena McLean) Under Review.
  • "Probabilistic Democracy'' (with Randall Stone)
  • "Security Implications of Geo-engineering''
  • "New Applications of Model Based Clustering in International Relations'' (with Omer F. Orsun)
  • "Environmental Change and Conflict" (with Andrew Coe) Paper presented at the 2011 International Studies Association Meeting
  • "Political Instabilities, Democracy and Economic Growth" (with Hein Goemans)
  • "An Experimental Test of Crisis Bargaining With Correlated Types" (with Curtis Signorino, Dustin Tingley, and Taehee Whang)
  • "Uncertainty in International Crises" (with Elena McLean and Taehee Whang)
  • "Secession Strategies: When do Self-determination Movements Get Violent?" (with Elena McLean)
  • "Military Spending, Investment and Economic Growth: Relaxing the Linearity Assumption"