• "Give Peace a (Second) Chance: A Theory of Nonproliferation Deals" (with Andrew Coe) International Studies Quarterly September 2018, vol 62, no 3, pp. 606-617. PDF
  • "Peaceful Uncertainty: When Power Shocks Do Not Create Commitment Problems" (with Robert Schub)  International Studies Quarterly December 2017, vol 61, no 4, pp. 850-866. PDF
  • "Accounting for Extra-Dyadic Sources of International Outcomes" (with Omer F. Orsun and Robert Schub) International Interactions December 2017 doi: 10.1080/03050629.2017.1414810
  • "Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Uncertainty and Conflict in International Relations." (with Robert Schub) Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics September 2017 doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.537 PDF Link 
  • "Uncertainty in International Crises" (with Elena McLean and Taehee Whang) Korean Journal of International Studies August 2017 vol. 15 no. 2 pp. 165-189
  • "A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War'' (with Andrew Coe)  International Organization 2016, vol. 70 no. 4 pp. 655-685 Link PDF
  • "Natural Disasters and the Size of Nations" (with Elena McLean) International Interactions 2016, vol 42, Issue 5, pp. 677-702  Link
  • "Mutual Optimism as a Cause of Conflict: Secret Alliances and Conflict Onset" (with Robert Schub) International Studies Quarterly  2016, 2016 vol. 60, Issue 3, pp. 552-564 PDF
  • "How Uncertainty about War Outcomes Affects War Onset" (with Robert Schub) Journal of Conflict Resolution doi: 0022002714553110, 2016 vol. 60 no. 6 pp. 1099-1128 PDF
  • "Adverse Selection and Growth under IMF Programs" (with Randall Stone) The Review of International Organizations March 2014, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp 1-28 Link PDF
  • "Knowing One's Future Preferences: A Correlated Agent Model with Bayesian Updating" (with Curt Signorino and Taehee Whang) The Journal of Theoretical Politics January 2014 vol. 26 no. 1 3-34 Link PDF
  • "Measuring Uncertainty in International Relations: Heteroskedastic Strategic Models" Conflict Management and Peace Science November 2012 vol. 29 no. 5 490-520 Link PDF
  • "Arms Diffusion and War" (with Andrew Coe)  Journal of Conflict Resolution  August 2012 vol. 56 no. 4 651-674 Link PDF
  • "Democratic Inefficiency? Regime Type and Suboptimal Choices in International Politics"  Journal of Conflict Resolution October 2012 vol. 56 no. 5 799-824 Link PDF
  • "Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models" Political Analysis 16(1) (with Curtis S. Signorino and Robert W. Walker) Winner of the Warren Miller Prize for the Best Article Published in Political Analysis in 2008. PDF



  • "Expecting the Unexpected: Disaster Risks and Conflict" (with Elena McLean) Under Review.
  • "Probabilistic Democracy'' (with Randall Stone) Under Review.
  • "Security Implications of Geo-engineering'' (with Aseem Mahajan)
  • "Regime Uncertainty and International Conflict'' (with Omer F. Orsun)
  • "Deal or No Deal: Responses to States on the Verge of Proliferation" (with Eliza Gheorghe  and Andrew J. Coe)
  • "Accidental Use of Force in International Relations"
  • "Environmental Change and Conflict" (with Andrew Coe) Paper presented at the 2011 International Studies Association Meeting


  • "The Game of Nuclear Proliferation" (with Andrew J. Coe)
  • "Probably Democratic'' (with Randall Stone)