@article {608536, title = {How Public Opinion Constrains the Use of Force: The Case of Operation Restore Hope}, journal = {Presidential Studies Quarterly}, year = {2004}, abstract = {Most previous research on the influence of domestic politics on international conflict behavior treats public opinion as endogenous to political institutions, leaders{\textquoteright} preferences, or both. In contrast, I argue that public opinion is more accurately characterized as partially exogenous. I further argue that, partly as a consequence, public scrutiny can inhibit U.S. presidents from using force as a foreign policy tool, particularly when the strategic stakes in a dispute are relatively modest. The literature on domestic audience costs, in turn, holds that public scrutiny may enhance a democratic leader{\textquoteright}s credibility in the eyes of a potential adversary, thereby increasing his likelihood of victory in a dispute. Yet, it also raises the potential political price of a bad outcome. Democratic leaders are therefore cross-pressured by the simultaneous advantages and disadvantages of public scrutiny. As a preliminary test of the theory, I conduct a plausibility probe of the influences of public opinion on the decision making of Presidents Bush and Clinton with respect to the 1992-1994 U.S. intervention in Somalia. I find that only by considering the constraining effect of public scrutiny can we fully understand these two presidents{\textquoteright} policies regarding Somalia.You can download a pdf copy of this article\ here.}, url = {https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/mbaum/documents/Somalia_PSQ.pdf}, author = {Baum, Matthew A.} }