Publications

2016
Gregory J Dehmer, Jonathan Jennings, Ruth A Madden, David J Malenka, Frederick A Masoudi, Charles R McKay, Debra L Ness, Sunil V Rao, Frederic S Resnic, Michael E Ring, John S Rumsfeld, Marc E Shelton, Michael C Simanowith, Lara E Slattery, William S Weintraub, Ann Lovett, and Sharon-Lise Normand. 2016. “The National Cardiovascular Data Registry Voluntary Public Reporting Program: An Interim Report From the NCDR Public Reporting Advisory Group.” J Am Coll Cardiol, 67, 2, Pp. 205-215.Abstract
Public reporting of health care data continues to proliferate as consumers and other stakeholders seek information on the quality and outcomes of care. Medicare's Hospital Compare website, the U.S. News & World Report hospital rankings, and several state-level programs are well known. Many rely heavily on administrative data as a surrogate to reflect clinical reality. Clinical data are traditionally more difficult and costly to collect, but more accurately reflect patients' clinical status, thus enhancing the validity of quality metrics. We describe the public reporting effort being launched by the American College of Cardiology and partnering professional organizations using clinical data from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) programs. This hospital-level voluntary effort will initially report process of care measures from the percutaneous coronary intervention (CathPCI) and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) registries of the NCDR. Over time, additional process, outcomes, and composite performance metrics will be reported.
Haiden A Huskamp, Marcela Horvitz-Lennon, Ernst R Berndt, Sharon-Lise T Normand, and Julie M Donohue. 2016. “Patterns of Antipsychotic Prescribing by Physicians to Young Children.” Psychiatr Serv, 67, 12, Pp. 1307-1314.Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Antipsychotic use among young children has grown rapidly despite a lack of approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for broad use in this age group. Characteristics of physicians who prescribed antipsychotics to young children were identified, and prescribing patterns involving young children and adults were compared. METHODS: Physician-level prescribing data from IMS Health's Xponent database were linked with American Medical Association Masterfile data and analyzed. The sample included all U.S. psychiatrists and a random sample of 5% of family medicine physicians who wrote at least ten antipsychotic prescriptions per year from 2008 to 2011 (N=31,713). Logistic and hierarchical binomial regression models were estimated to examine physician prescribing for children ages zero to nine, and the types and numbers of ingredients used for children versus adults ages 20 to 64 were compared. RESULTS: Among antipsychotic prescribers, 42.2% had written at least one antipsychotic prescription for young children. Such prescribing was more likely among physicians age ≤39 versus ≥60 (odds ratio [OR]=1.70) and physicians in rural versus nonrural areas (OR=1.11) and was less likely among males (OR=.93) and graduates of a top-25 versus a lower-ranked U.S. medical school (OR=.87). Among physicians who prescribed antipsychotics to young children and adults, 75.0% of prescriptions for children and 35.7% of those for adults were for drugs with an FDA-approved indication for that age. Fewer antipsychotic agents were prescribed for young children (median=2) versus adults (median=7). CONCLUSIONS: Prescribing antipsychotics for young children was relatively common, but prescribing patterns differed between young children and adults.
David M Shahian, Sharon-Lise T Normand, Mark W Friedberg, Matthew M Hutter, and Peter J Pronovost. 2016. “Rating the Raters: The Inconsistent Quality of Health Care Performance Measurement.” Ann Surg, 264, 1, Pp. 36-8.
Emorcia V Hill, Michael Wake, René Carapinha, Sharon-Lise Normand, Robert E Wolf, Keith Norris, and Joan Y Reede. 2016. “Rationale and Design of the Women and Inclusion in Academic Medicine Study.” Ethn Dis, 26, 2, Pp. 245-54.Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Women of color (WOC) (African American, Hispanic, Native American/Alaskan Native, and Asian American) faculty remain disproportionately underrepresented among medical school faculty and especially at senior ranks compared with White female faculty. The barriers or facilitators to the career advancement of WOC are poorly understood. The Women and Inclusion in Academic Medicine (WIAM) study was developed to characterize individual, institutional and sociocultural factors that influence the entry, progression and persistence, and advancement of women faculty in academic medical careers with a focus on WOC. METHODS: Using a purposive sample of 13 academic medical institutions, we collected qualitative interview data from 21 WOC junior faculty and quantitative data from 3,127 (38.9% of 8,053 eligible women) respondents via an online survey. To gather institutional data, we used an online survey and conducted 23 key administrative informant interviews from the 13 institutions. Grounded theory methodology will be used to analyze qualitative data. Multivariable analysis including hierarchical linear modeling will be used to investigate outcomes, such as the inclusiveness of organizational gender climate and women faculty's intent to stay. CONCLUSION: We describe the design, methods, rationale and limitations of one of the largest and most comprehensive studies of women faculty in academic medicine with a focus on WOC. This study will enhance our understanding of challenges that face women, and, especially WOC, faculty in academic medicine and will provide solutions at both the individual and institutional levels.
Julie M Donohue, Sharon-Lise T Normand, Marcela Horvitz-Lennon, Aiju Men, Ernst R Berndt, and Haiden A Huskamp. 2016. “Regional Variation in Physician Adoption of Antipsychotics: Impact on US Medicare Expenditures.” J Ment Health Policy Econ, 19, 2, Pp. 69-78.Abstract
BACKGROUND: Regional variation in US Medicare prescription drug spending is driven by higher prescribing of costly brand-name drugs in some regions. This variation likely arises from differences in the speed of diffusion of newly-approved medications. Second-generation antipsychotics were widely adopted for treatment of severe mental illness and for several off-label uses. Rapid diffusion of new psychiatric drugs likely increases drug spending but its relationship to non-drug spending is unclear. The impact of antipsychotic diffusion on drug and medical spending is of great interest to public payers like Medicare, which finance a majority of mental health spending in the US. AIMS: We examine the association between physician adoption of new antipsychotics and antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending among disabled and elderly Medicare enrollees. METHODS: We linked physician-level data on antipsychotic prescribing from an all-payer dataset (IMS Health's XponentTM) to patient-level data from Medicare. Our physician sample included 16,932 US. psychiatrists and primary care providers with > 10 antipsychotic prescriptions per year from 1997-2011. We constructed a measure of physician adoption of 3 antipsychotics introduced during this period (quetiapine, ziprasidone and aripiprazole) by estimating a shared frailty model of the time to first prescription for each drug. We then assigned physicians to one of 306 U.S. hospital referral regions (HRRs) and measured the average propensity to adopt per region. Using 2010 data for a random sample of 1.6 million Medicare beneficiaries, we identified 138,680 antipsychotic users. A generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log link was used to estimate the effect of region-level adoption propensity on beneficiary-level antipsychotic spending and non-drug medical spending adjusting for patient demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health status, eligibility category, and whether the antipsychotic was for an on- vs. off-label use. RESULTS: In our sample, mean patient age was 62 years, 42% were male, and 86% had low-income. Half of antipsychotic users in Medicare had an on-label indication. The weighted average propensity to adopt the three new antipsychotics varied four-fold across HRRs. For every one standard deviation increase in the propensity to adopt there was a 5% increase in antipsychotic spending after adjusting for covariates (adjusted ratio of spending 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.08, p = 0.005). Physician propensity to adopt new antipsychotics was not associated with non-drug medical spending (adjusted ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.91-1.01, p < 0.117). DISCUSSION: These findings suggest wide regional variation in physicians' propensity to adopt new antipsychotic medications. While physician adoption of new antipsychotics was positively associated with antipsychotic expenditures, it was not associated with non-drug spending. Our analysis is limited to Medicare and may not generalize to other payers. Also, claims data do not allow for the measurement of health outcomes, which would be important to evaluate when calculating the value of rapid vs. slow technology adoption.
2015
Timothy S Anderson, Haiden A Huskamp, Andrew J Epstein, Colleen L Barry, Aiju Men, Ernst R Berndt, Marcela Horvitz-Lennon, Sharon-Lise Normand, and Julie M Donohue. 2015. “Antipsychotic prescribing: do conflict of interest policies make a difference?” Med Care, 53, 4, Pp. 338-45.Abstract
BACKGROUND: Academic medical centers (AMCs) have increasingly adopted conflict of interest policies governing physician-industry relationships; it is unclear how policies impact prescribing. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether 9 American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC)-recommended policies influence psychiatrists' antipsychotic prescribing and compare prescribing between academic and nonacademic psychiatrists. RESEARCH DESIGN: We measured number of prescriptions for 10 heavily promoted and 9 newly introduced/reformulated antipsychotics between 2008 and 2011 among 2464 academic psychiatrists at 101 AMCs and 11,201 nonacademic psychiatrists. We measured AMC compliance with 9 AAMC recommendations. Difference-in-difference analyses compared changes in antipsychotic prescribing between 2008 and 2011 among psychiatrists in AMCs compliant with ≥ 7/9 recommendations, those whose institutions had lesser compliance, and nonacademic psychiatrists. RESULTS: Ten centers were AAMC compliant in 2008, 30 attained compliance by 2011, and 61 were never compliant. Share of prescriptions for heavily promoted antipsychotics was stable and comparable between academic and nonacademic psychiatrists (63.0%-65.8% in 2008 and 62.7%-64.4% in 2011). Psychiatrists in AAMC-compliant centers were slightly less likely to prescribe these antipsychotics compared with those in never-compliant centers (relative odds ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97; P < 0.0001). Share of prescriptions for new/reformulated antipsychotics grew from 5.3% in 2008 to 11.1% in 2011. Psychiatrists in AAMC-compliant centers actually increased prescribing of new/reformulated antipsychotics relative to those in never-compliant centers (relative odds ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.35-1.44; P < 0.0001), a relative increase of 1.1% in probability. CONCLUSIONS: Psychiatrists exposed to strict conflict of interest policies prescribed heavily promoted antipsychotics at rates similar to academic psychiatrists and nonacademic psychiatrists exposed to less strict or no policies.
MF Lobo, V Azzone, B Melica, L Bacelar-Nicolau, C Nisa, A Freitas, LF Azevedo, FN Rocha-Gonçalves, FS Resnic, A Teixeira-Pinto, J Pereira-Miguel, ST Normand, and A Costa-Pereira. 2015. “The Atlantic Divide In Coronary Heart Disease: Health Technologies Use In The Us And Portugal.” Value Health, 18, 7, Pp. A402.
Mitchell W Krucoff, Art Sedrakyan, and Sharon-Lise T Normand. 2015. “Bridging Unmet Medical Device Ecosystem Needs With Strategically Coordinated Registries Networks.” JAMA, 314, 16, Pp. 1691-2.
Daniel B Kramer, Laura A Hatfield, and Sharon-Lise T Normand. 2015. “Comparative effectiveness of cardiac implantable electrical devices.” Heart, 101, 22, Pp. 1773-5.
Amit Kumar, Michael E Matheny, Kalon KL Ho, Robert W Yeh, Thomas C Piemonte, Howard Waldman, Pinak B Shah, Richard Cope, Sharon-Lise T Normand, Sharon Donnelly, Susan Robbins, and Frederic S Resnic. 2015. “The data extraction and longitudinal trend analysis network study of distributed automated postmarket cardiovascular device safety surveillance.” Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes, 8, 1, Pp. 38-46.Abstract
BACKGROUND: Current approaches for postmarket medical device safety surveillance are limited in their ability to produce timely and accurate assessments of adverse event rates. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Data Extraction and Longitudinal Trend Analysis (DELTA) network study was a multicenter prospective observational study designed to evaluate the safety of devices used during percutaneous coronary interventions. All adult patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from January 2008 to December 2012 at 5 participating Massachusetts sites were included. A safety alert was triggered if the cumulative observed adverse event rates for the study device exceeded the upper 95% confidence interval of the event rates of propensity-matched control cohort. Prespecified sensitivity analyses were developed to validate any identified safety signal. A total of 23,805 consecutive percutaneous coronary intervention procedures were evaluated. Two of 24 safety analyses triggered safety alerts. Patients receiving Perclose vascular closure device experienced an increased risk of minor vascular complications (relative risk, 4.14; P<0.01) and any vascular complication (relative risk, 2.06; P=0.01) when compared with propensity-matched patients receiving alternative vascular closure device, a result primarily driven by relatively high event rates at 1 participating center. Sensitivity analyses based on alternative risk adjustment methods confirmed a pattern of increased rate of complications at 1 of the 5 participating sites in their use of Perclose vascular closure device. CONCLUSIONS: The DELTA network study demonstrates that distributed automated prospective safety surveillance has the potential of providing near real-time assessment of safety risks of newly approved medical devices.
Sripal Bangalore, Treacy S Silbaugh, Sharon-Lise T Normand, Ann F Lovett, Frederick GP Welt, and Frederic S Resnic. 2015. “Drug-eluting stents versus bare metal stents prior to noncardiac surgery.” Catheter Cardiovasc Interv, 85, 4, Pp. 533-41.Abstract
BACKGROUND: The safety of drug-eluting stents (DES) vs. bare metal stents (BMS) in the perioperative setting, a heightened state of inflammation and thrombosis is not well defined. METHODS: All adults undergoing noncardiac surgical (NCS) procedures within 1 year following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in Massachusetts between April 1, 2004, and September 30, 2007, were identified from an administrative claims database. Patients were divided into those who received BMS vs. DES at index PCI. Primary net clinical outcome was death, myocardial infarction (MI) or bleeding within 30 days of NCS. Primary clinical outcome was 30-day death or MI. RESULTS: Among 8,415 (22% BMS) patients that satisfied our inclusion criteria, 1,838 BMS patients were matched with 3,565 DES patients with similar propensity scores. In the DES cohort, the 30-day primary net clinical outcome rate was lower with longer time from PCI to NCS (P = 0.02) with lowest rates if NCS was performed after 90 days from PCI (event rate 8.57, 7.53, 5.21, and 5.75% for 1-30, 31-90, 91-180, and 181-365 days from PCI to NCS). However, in the BMS cohort, the event rate was uniformly high regardless of the time from PCI to NCS (P = 0.60) (event rate 8.20, 6.56, 8.05, and 8.82% for 1-30, 31-90, 91-180, and 181-365 days from PCI to NCS). There was no significant difference between DES and the BMS group for 30-day primary net clinical outcome (6.64 vs. 7.89%; P = 0.10), but there was a 26% lower odds of primary clinical outcome (OR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.94) with DES when compared with BMS, driven mainly by differences in event rates when NCS was performed >90 days post PCI. CONCLUSION: DES implantation was not associated with higher adverse events after NCS. Moreover, the incidence of adverse events following NCS was lower when NCS was performed >90 days post-DES implantation suggesting that it may not be necessary to wait until 12 months post PCI with DES before NCS.
Jason H Wasfy, Gaurav Singal, Cashel O'Brien, Daniel M Blumenthal, Kevin F Kennedy, Jordan B Strom, John A Spertus, Laura Mauri, Sharon-Lise T Normand, and Robert W Yeh. 2015. “Enhancing the Prediction of 30-Day Readmission After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Using Data Extracted by Querying of the Electronic Health Record.” Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes, 8, 5, Pp. 477-85.Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early readmission after percutaneous coronary intervention is an important quality metric, but prediction models from registry data have only moderate discrimination. We aimed to improve ability to predict 30-day readmission after percutaneous coronary intervention from a previously validated registry-based model. METHODS AND RESULTS: We matched readmitted to non-readmitted patients in a 1:2 ratio by risk of readmission, and extracted unstructured and unconventional structured data from the electronic medical record, including need for medical interpretation, albumin level, medical nonadherence, previous number of emergency department visits, atrial fibrillation/flutter, syncope/presyncope, end-stage liver disease, malignancy, and anxiety. We assessed differences in rates of these conditions between cases/controls, and estimated their independent association with 30-day readmission using logistic regression conditional on matched groups. Among 9288 percutaneous coronary interventions, we matched 888 readmitted with 1776 non-readmitted patients. In univariate analysis, cases and controls were significantly different with respect to interpreter (7.9% for cases and 5.3% for controls; P=0.009), emergency department visits (1.12 for cases and 0.77 for controls; P<0.001), homelessness (3.2% for cases and 1.6% for controls; P=0.007), anticoagulation (33.9% for cases and 22.1% for controls; P<0.001), atrial fibrillation/flutter (32.7% for cases and 28.9% for controls; P=0.045), presyncope/syncope (27.8% for cases and 21.3% for controls; P<0.001), and anxiety (69.4% for cases and 62.4% for controls; P<0.001). Anticoagulation, emergency department visits, and anxiety were independently associated with readmission. CONCLUSIONS: Patient characteristics derived from review of the electronic health record can be used to refine risk prediction for hospital readmission after percutaneous coronary intervention.
Robert W Yeh, Matthew J Czarny, Sharon-Lise T Normand, Dean J Kereiakes, David R Holmes, Ralph G Brindis, Douglas W Weaver, John S Rumsfeld, Matthew T Roe, Sunghee Kim, Priscilla Driscoll-Shempp, and Laura Mauri. 2015. “Evaluating the generalizability of a large streamlined cardiovascular trial: comparing hospitals and patients in the dual antiplatelet therapy study versus the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.” Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes, 8, 1, Pp. 96-102.Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Study is large streamlined clinical trial designed to evaluate antiplatelet treatment strategies in a broadly inclusive population of subjects treated with coronary stents. Whether large streamlined trials can successfully include a representative group of study sites and patients has not been formally assessed. METHODS AND RESULTS: Within the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI Registry, we compared characteristics and outcomes of hospitals participating versus not participating in the Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Study. We also compared clinical and procedural characteristics of trial subjects undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents to contemporaneous patients within the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI Registry. Standardized differences between groups were estimated. Between September 2009 and July 2011, 1.1 million PCIs were performed among 1276 hospitals, of which 309 (24.2%) participated in the Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Study. Participating hospitals were larger (468 versus 311 beds), more frequently located in urban settings (61.2% versus 42.6%), and had higher annual PCI volumes (858 versus 378) compared with nonparticipating hospitals, although hospital case mix and procedural outcomes were similar. Compared with CathPCI patients, trial patients undergoing PCI with drug-eluting stents were similar with respect to race, sex, and rates of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and smoking, although they had lower rates of prior cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Within the Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Study, clinical trial sites had similar patient case mix and clinical outcomes as nonparticipating sites. Although trial participants were representative of PCI patients with respect to race, sex and most comorbidities, they had a lower prevalence of chronic cardiovascular disease compared with registry patients. Although a streamlined cardiovascular clinical trial may successfully involve a large number of hospitals and rapidly enroll a diverse population of patients, differences between eligible patients and those actually enrolled remained. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00977938.
Beau M Hawkins, Kevin F Kennedy, Herbert D Aronow, Louis L Nguyen, Christopher J White, Kenneth Rosenfield, Sharon-Lise T Normand, John A Spertus, and Robert W Yeh. 2015. “Hospital variation in carotid stenting outcomes.” JACC Cardiovasc Interv, 8, 6, Pp. 858-63.Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine variation in outcomes for patients receiving carotid artery stenting (CAS) across a sample of U.S. hospitals and assess the extent to which this variation was attributable to differences in case mix and procedural volume. BACKGROUND: As CAS is increasingly being used throughout the United States, assessing hospital variation in CAS outcomes is critical to understanding and improving the quality of care for patients with carotid artery disease. METHODS: Hospitals participating in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry-Carotid Artery Endarterectomy and Revascularization Registry contributing more than 5 CAS procedures from 2005 through 2013 were eligible for inclusion. We estimated unadjusted and risk-standardized rates of in-hospital stroke or death for each participating hospital using a previously validated prediction model and applying hospital-level random effects. RESULTS: There were 188 hospitals contributing 19,381 CAS procedures during the period of interest. Unadjusted and risk-standardized in-hospital stroke or death rates ranged from 0% to 18.8% and 1.2% to 4.7%, respectively. Operator and hospital volumes were not significant predictors of outcomes after adjustment for case mix (p = 0.15 and p = 0.09, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: CAS outcomes vary 4-fold among hospitals, even after adjustment for differences in case mix. Future work is needed to identify the sources of this variation and develop initiatives to improve patient outcomes.
Emily M Bucholz, Sharon-Lise T Normand, Yun Wang, Shuangge Ma, Haiqun Lin, and Harlan M Krumholz. 2015. “Life Expectancy and Years of Potential Life Lost After Acute Myocardial Infarction by Sex and Race: A Cohort-Based Study of Medicare Beneficiaries.” J Am Coll Cardiol, 66, 6, Pp. 645-55.Abstract
BACKGROUND: Most studies of sex and race differences after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have not taken into account differences in life expectancy in the general population. Years of potential life lost (YPLL) is a metric that takes into account the burden of disease and can be compared by sex and race. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine sex and race differences in long-term survival after AMI using life expectancy and YPLL to account for differences in population-based life expectancy. METHODS: Using data from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project, a prospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for AMI between 1994 and 1995 (N = 146,743), we calculated life expectancy and YPLL using Cox proportional hazards regression with extrapolation using exponential models. RESULTS: Of the 146,743 patients with AMI, 48.1% were women and 6.4% were black; the average age was 75.9 years. Post-AMI life expectancy estimates were similar for men and women of the same race but lower for black patients than white patients. On average, women lost 10.5% (SE 0.3%) more of their expected life than men, and black patients lost 6.2% (SE 0.6%) more of their expected life than white patients. After adjustment, women still lost an average of 7.8% (0.3%) more of their expected life than men, but black race became associated with a survival advantage, suggesting that racial differences in YPLL were largely explained by differences in clinical presentation and treatment between black and white patients. CONCLUSIONS: Women and black patients lost more years of life after AMI, on average, than men and white patients, an effect that was not explained in women by clinical or treatment differences.
Anup Amatya, Dulal K Bhaumik, Sharon-Lise Normand, Joel Greenhouse, Eloise Kaizar, Brian Neelon, and Robert D Gibbons. 2015. “Likelihood-Based Random-Effect Meta-Analysis of Binary Events.” J Biopharm Stat, 25, 5, Pp. 984-1004.Abstract
Meta-analysis has been used extensively for evaluation of efficacy and safety of medical interventions. Its advantages and utilities are well known. However, recent studies have raised questions about the accuracy of the commonly used moment-based meta-analytic methods in general and for rare binary outcomes in particular. The issue is further complicated for studies with heterogeneous effect sizes. Likelihood-based mixed-effects modeling provides an alternative to moment-based methods such as inverse-variance weighted fixed- and random-effects estimators. In this article, we compare and contrast different mixed-effect modeling strategies in the context of meta-analysis. Their performance in estimation and testing of overall effect and heterogeneity are evaluated when combining results from studies with a binary outcome. Models that allow heterogeneity in both baseline rate and treatment effect across studies have low type I and type II error rates, and their estimates are the least biased among the models considered.
Lauren M Kunz, Sharon-Lise T Normand, and Art Sedrakyan. 2015. “Meta-analysis of rate ratios with differential follow-up by treatment arm: inferring comparative effectiveness of medical devices.” Stat Med, 34, 21, Pp. 2913-25.Abstract
Modeling events requires accounting for differential follow-up duration, especially when combining randomized and observational studies. Although events occur at any point over a follow-up period and censoring occurs throughout, most applied researchers use odds ratios as association measures, assuming follow-up duration is similar across treatment groups. We derive the bias of the rate ratio when incorrectly assuming equal follow-up duration in the single study binary treatment setting. Simulations illustrate bias, efficiency, and coverage and demonstrate that bias and coverage worsen rapidly as the ratio of follow-up duration between arms moves away from one. Combining study rate ratios with hierarchical Poisson regression models, we examine bias and coverage for the overall rate ratio via simulation in three cases: when average arm-specific follow-up duration is available for all studies, some studies, and no study. In the null case, bias and coverage are poor when the study average follow-up is used and improve even if some arm-specific follow-up information is available. As the rate ratio gets further from the null, bias and coverage remain poor. We investigate the effectiveness of cardiac resynchronization therapy devices compared with those with cardioverter-defibrillator capacity where three of eight studies report arm-specific follow-up duration.
Harlan M Krumholz, Sudhakar V Nuti, Nicholas S Downing, Sharon-Lise T Normand, and Yun Wang. 2015. “Mortality, Hospitalizations, and Expenditures for the Medicare Population Aged 65 Years or Older, 1999-2013.” JAMA, 314, 4, Pp. 355-65.Abstract
IMPORTANCE: In a period of dynamic change in health care technology, delivery, and behaviors, tracking trends in health and health care can provide a perspective on what is being achieved. OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively describe national trends in mortality, hospitalizations, and expenditures in the Medicare fee-for-service population between 1999 and 2013. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Serial cross-sectional analysis of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older between 1999 and 2013 using Medicare denominator and inpatient files. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For all Medicare beneficiaries, trends in all-cause mortality; for fee-for-service beneficiaries, trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalization-associated outcomes and expenditures. Geographic variation, stratified by key demographic groups, and changes in the intensity of care for fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 1, 3, and 6 months of life were also assessed. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 68,374,904 unique Medicare beneficiaries (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage). All-cause mortality for all Medicare beneficiaries declined from 5.30% in 1999 to 4.45% in 2013 (difference, 0.85 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.83-0.87). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries (n = 60,056,069), the total number of hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years decreased from 35,274 to 26,930 (difference, 8344; 95% CI, 8315-8374). Mean inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditures per Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary declined from $3290 to $2801 (difference, $489; 95% CI, $487-$490). Among fee-for-service beneficiaries in the last 6 months of life, the number of hospitalizations decreased from 131.1 to 102.9 per 100 deaths (difference, 28.2; 95% CI, 27.9-28.4). The percentage of beneficiaries with 1 or more hospitalizations decreased from 70.5 to 56.8 per 100 deaths (difference, 13.7; 95% CI, 13.5-13.8), while the inflation-adjusted inpatient expenditure per death increased from $15,312 in 1999 to $17,423 in 2009 and then decreased to $13,388 in 2013. Findings were consistent across geographic and demographic groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older, all-cause mortality rates, hospitalization rates, and expenditures per beneficiary decreased from 1999 to 2013. In the last 6 months of life, total hospitalizations and inpatient expenditures decreased in recent years.
Daniel B Kramer, Susan L Mitchell, Joao Monteiro, Paul W Jones, Sharon-Lise Normand, David L Hayes, and Matthew R Reynolds. 2015. “Patient Activity and Survival Following Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Implantation: The ALTITUDE Activity Study.” J Am Heart Assoc, 4, 5.Abstract
BACKGROUND: Physical activity data are collected automatically by implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs). Though these data potentially provide a quantifiable and easily accessible measure of functional status, its relationship with survival has not been well studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients enrolled in the Boston Scientific LATITUDE remote monitoring system from 2008 to 2012 with ICDs were eligible. Remote monitoring data were used to calculate mean daily activity at baseline (30 to 60 days after implantation), and longitudinally. Cox regression was used to examine the association between survival and increments of 30 minutes/day in both (1) mean baseline activity and (2) time-varying activity, with both adjusted for demographic and device characteristics. A total of 98 437 patients were followed for a median of 2.2 years (mean age of 67.7±13.1 years; 71.7% male). Mean baseline daily activity was 107.5±66.2 minutes/day. The proportion of patients surviving after 4 years was significantly higher among those in the most versus least active quintile of mean baseline activity (90.5% vs. 50.0%; log-rank P value, <0.001). Lower mean baseline activity (i.e., incremental difference of 30-minutes/day) was independently associated with a higher risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.427 to 1.462). Time-varying activity was similarly associated with a higher risk of death (AHR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.451 to 1.508), indicating that a patient having 30 minutes per day less activity in a given month has a 48% increased hazard for death when compared to a similar patient in the same month. CONCLUSIONS: Patient activity measured by ICDs strongly correlates with survival following ICD implantation.
Robert W Yeh, Laura Mauri, Robert E Wolf, Iyah K Romm, Ann Lovett, David Shahian, and Sharon-Lise Normand. 2015. “Population trends in rates of coronary revascularization.” JAMA Intern Med, 175, 3, Pp. 454-6.

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