Publications

Working Paper
Andrews I, Roth J, Pakes A. Inference for Linear Conditional Moment Inequalities. Working Paper.Abstract
We consider inference based on linear conditional moment inequalities, which
arise in a wide variety of economic applications, including many structural models.
We show that linear conditional structure greatly simplifies confidence set
construction, allowing for computationally tractable projection inference in settings
with nuisance parameters. Next, we derive least favorable critical values
that avoid conservativeness due to projection. Finally, we introduce a conditional
inference approach which ensures a strong form of insensitivity to slack
moments, as well as a hybrid technique which combines the least favorable and
conditional methods. Our conditional and hybrid approaches are new even in
settings without nuisance parameters. We find good performance in simulations
based on Wollmann (2018), especially for the hybrid approach.
PDF Supplement
Asker J, Fershtman C, Jeon J, Pakes A. A Computational Framework for Analyzing Dynamic Procurement Auctions: The Market Impact of Information Sharing. Working Paper. PDF
Pakes A, Porter J. Moment Inequalities for Multinomial Choice with Fixed Effects. Working Paper. PDF
2019
Pakes A, Sobel J. Parag Pathak: Winner of the 2018 Clark Medal. Journal of Economics Perspectives. 2019;33 (1) :231-246. PDF
2018
Ho K, Pakes A, Shepard M. The Evolution of Health Insurer Costs in Massachusetts, 2010-12. Review of Industrial Organization. 2018;53 (1) :117-137. PDF
Doraszelski U, Lewis G, Pakes A. Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market. American Economic Review. 2018;108 (3) :565-615. PDF
2017
Pakes A. Empirical Tools and Competition Analysis: Past Progress and Current Problems. International Journal of Industrial Organization [Internet]. 2017;53 :241-266. Publisher's VersionAbstract

I review a subset of the empirical tools available for competition analysis. The tools discussed are those needed for the empirical analysis of; demand, production efficiency, product repositioning, and the evolution of market structure. Where relevant I start with a brief review of tools developed in the 1990’s that have recently been incorporated into the analysis of actual policy. The focus is on providing an overview of new developments; both those that are easy to implement, and those that are not quite at that stage yet show promise.

PDF
2016
Pakes A. Methodological Issues in Analyzing Market Dynamics. In: Advances in Dynamic and Evolutionary Games: Theory, Applications, and Numerical Methods . F. Thuijsman & F. Wagener (eds.) . Switzerland: Springer International Publishing ; 2016. pp. 43-75.Abstract

This paper investigates progress in the development of models capable of empirically analyzing the evolution of industries. It starts with a parallel between the development of empirical frameworks for static and dynamic analysis of industries: both adapted their frameworks from models taken from economic theory. The dynamic framework has had its successes: it led to developments that have enabled us to control for dynamic phenomena in static empirical models and to useful computational theory. However when important characteristics of industries were integrated into that framework it generated complexities which both hindered empirical work on dynamics per se, and made it unrealistic as a model of agent behavior. This paper suggests a simpler alternative paradigm, one which need not maintain all the traditional theoretical restrictions, but does maintain the core theoretical idea of optimizing subject to an information set. It then discusses estimation, computation, and an example within that paradigm.

PDF
2015
Pakes A, Porter J, Ho K, Ishii J. Moment Inequalities and Their Application. Econometrica. 2015;83 (1) :315-334. Prior and longer version proof_appendix_pphi_2011.pdf published version
2014
Ho K, Pakes A. Hospital Choices, Hospital Prices, and Financial Incentives to Physicians. American Economic Review. 2014;104 (12) :3841-3884.Abstract

We estimate an insurer-speci…c preference function which rationalizes hospital referrals for privately-insured births in California. The function is additively separable in: a hospital price paid by the insurer, the distance traveled, and plan and severity-speci…c hospital …xed e¤ects (capturing hospital quality). We use an inequality estimator that allows for errors in price and detailed hospital-severity interactions and obtain markedly di¤erent results than those from a logit. The estimates indicate that insurers with more capitated physicians are more responsive to price. Capitated plans send patients further to utilize similar-quality lower-priced hospitals; but the cost-quality trade-o¤ does not vary with capitation rates.

Paper Appendices
Ho K, Pakes A. Physician Payment Reform and Hospital Referrals. American Economic Review Paper and Proceedings [Internet]. 2014;104 (5) :200-205. Publisher's Version
Pakes A. Behavioral and Descriptive Forms of Choice Models . International Economic Review. 2014;55 (3) :603-624. behavioralanddescriptiveformsofchoice-a.pdf
2012
Fershtman C, Pakes A. Dynamic Games with Asymmetric Information: A Framework for Empirical Work. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2012;127 (4) :1611-1661. PDF
2011
Ho K, Pakes A. Do Physician Incentives Affect Hospital Choice? A Progress Report. International Journal of Industrial Organization . 2011;29 (3) :317-322. hopakes_ijio_111510.pdf
Erickson T, Pakes A. An Experimental Component Index for the CPI: From Annual Computer Data to Monthly Data on Other Goods. American Economic Review. 2011;101 (5) :1707-1738. ericksonpakes12a.pdf
2010
Pakes A. Alternative Models for Moment Inequalities. Econometrica. 2010;78 (6) :1783-1822. fs3.pdf
2009
Lee RS, Pakes A. Multiple Equilibria and Selection by Learning in an Applied Setting. Economic Letters. 2009;104 (1) :13-16. multipleequilibria.pdf
2007
Doraszelski U, Pakes A. A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in IO. In: Armstrong M, Porter R The Handbook of Industrial Organization. Vol. 3. New York: Elsevier ; 2007. pp. Chapter 33 2183-2162. handbookio9.pdf

Pages