@article {673604, title = {Unobserved Heterogeneity, State Dependence, and Health Plan Choices}, journal = {Revised Sept. 2022}, year = {Working Paper}, author = {Ariel Pakes and Jack Porter and Mark Shepard and Calder-Wang, Sophie} } @inbook {680064, title = {Moment Inequalities and Partial Identification in Industrial Organization}, booktitle = {Handbook of Industrial Organization, Kate Ho, Ali Hortascu, and Alessandro Lizerri editors}, year = {Forthcoming}, author = {Brendan Kline and Ariel Pakes and Elie Tamer} } @article {641749, title = {Inference for Linear Conditional Moment Inequalities}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, year = {Forthcoming}, author = {Isaiah Andrews and Jonathan Roth and Ariel Pakes} } @article {88606, title = {Moment Inequalities for Multinomial Choice with Fixed Effects}, journal = {Quantitative Economics}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, year = {2024}, pages = {1-25}, author = {Ariel Pakes and Jack Porter} } @article {694369, title = {The Impact of AI Design on Pricing}, journal = {Journal of Economics and Management Strategy}, year = {2023}, pages = {1-29}, author = {John Asker and Chaim Fershtman and Ariel Pakes} } @article {670953, title = {Artifi cial Intelligence, Algorithm Design and Pricing}, journal = {AER, Papers and Proceedings}, volume = {112}, number = {May}, year = {2022}, pages = {452-456}, author = {John Asker and Chaim Fershtman and Ariel Pakes} } @article {652581, title = {A Helicopter Tour of Some Underlying Issues in Empirical Industrial Organization}, journal = {Annual Review of Economics}, volume = {13}, year = {2021}, pages = {397-421}, author = {Pakes, A.} } @article {468501, title = {A Computational Framework for Analyzing Dynamic Procurement Auctions: The Market Impact of Information Sharing}, journal = {RAND Journal of Economics}, volume = {51 }, number = {3}, year = {2020}, pages = {805-839}, author = {John Asker and Chaim Fershtman and Jihye Jeon and Ariel Pakes} } @article {634065, title = {Parag Pathak: Winner of the 2018 Clark Medal}, journal = {Journal of Economics Perspectives}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, year = {2019}, pages = {231-246}, author = {Ariel Pakes and Joel Sobel} } @article {456256, title = {The Evolution of Health Insurer Costs in Massachusetts, 2010-12}, journal = {Review of Industrial Organization}, volume = {53}, number = {1}, year = {2018}, pages = {117-137}, author = {Kate Ho and Ariel Pakes and Mark Shepard} } @article {370791, title = {Just Starting Out: Learning and Equilibrium in a New Market}, journal = {American Economic Review}, volume = {108}, number = {3}, year = {2018}, pages = {565-615}, author = {Ulrich Doraszelski and Greg Lewis and Ariel Pakes} } @journal {337021, title = {Empirical Tools and Competition Analysis: Past Progress and Current Problems.}, journal = {International Journal of Industrial Organization}, volume = {53}, year = {2017}, pages = {241-266}, abstract = { I review a subset of the empirical tools available for competition analysis. The tools discussed are those needed for the empirical analysis of; demand, production efficiency, product repositioning, and the evolution of market structure. Where relevant I start with a brief review of tools developed in the 1990{\textquoteright}s that have recently been incorporated into the analysis of actual policy. The focus is on providing an overview of new developments; both those that are easy to implement, and those that are not quite at that stage yet show promise. }, url = {https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1VRsJc8eEWTmF}, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @inbook {239521, title = {Methodological Issues in Analyzing Market Dynamics}, booktitle = {Advances in Dynamic and Evolutionary Games: Theory, Applications, and Numerical Methods }, year = {2016}, pages = {43-75}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, organization = {Springer International Publishing}, edition = {F. Thuijsman \& F. Wagener (eds.) }, address = {Switzerland}, abstract = { This paper investigates progress in the development of models capable of empirically analyzing the evolution of industries. It starts with a parallel between the development of empirical frameworks for static and dynamic analysis of industries: both adapted their frameworks from models taken from economic theory. The dynamic framework has had its successes: it led to developments that have enabled us to control for dynamic phenomena in static empirical models and to useful computational theory. However when important characteristics of industries were integrated into that framework it generated complexities which both hindered empirical work on dynamics per se, and made it unrealistic as a model of agent behavior. This paper suggests a simpler alternative paradigm, one which need not maintain all the traditional theoretical restrictions, but does maintain the core theoretical idea of optimizing subject to an information set. It then discusses estimation, computation, and an example within that paradigm. }, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @article {72366, title = {Moment Inequalities and Their Application}, journal = {Econometrica}, volume = {83}, number = {1}, year = {2015}, pages = {315-334}, author = {Ariel Pakes and Jack Porter and Katherine Ho and Joy Ishii} } @article {158071, title = {Hospital Choices, Hospital Prices, and Financial Incentives to Physicians}, journal = {American Economic Review}, volume = {104}, number = {12}, year = {2014}, pages = {3841-3884}, abstract = {We estimate an insurer-speci…c preference function which rationalizes hospital referrals for privately-insured births in California. The function is additively separable in: a hospital price paid by the insurer, the distance traveled, and plan and severity-speci…c hospital …xed e¤ects (capturing hospital quality). We use an inequality estimator that allows for errors in price and detailed hospital-severity interactions and obtain markedly di¤erent results than those from a logit. The estimates indicate that insurers with more capitated physicians are more responsive to price. Capitated plans send patients further to utilize similar-quality lower-priced hospitals; but the cost-quality trade-o¤ does not vary with capitation rates.}, author = {Kate Ho and Ariel Pakes} } @article {133711, title = {Physician Payment Reform and Hospital Referrals}, journal = {American Economic Review Paper and Proceedings}, volume = {104}, number = {5}, year = {2014}, pages = {200-205}, url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/atypon.php?return_to=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.104.5.200}, author = {Kate Ho and Ariel Pakes} } @article {93091, title = {Behavioral and Descriptive Forms of Choice Models }, journal = {International Economic Review}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, year = {2014}, pages = {603-624}, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @article {72361, title = {Dynamic Games with Asymmetric Information: A Framework for Empirical Work}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, volume = {127}, number = {4}, year = {2012}, pages = {1611-1661}, author = {Chaim Fershtman and Ariel Pakes} } @article {21996, title = {Do Physician Incentives Affect Hospital Choice? A Progress Report}, journal = {International Journal of Industrial Organization }, volume = {29}, number = {3}, year = {2011}, note = {Draft Date: November 2010}, pages = {317-322}, author = {Katherine Ho and Ariel Pakes} } @article {21998, title = {An Experimental Component Index for the CPI: From Annual Computer Data to Monthly Data on Other Goods}, journal = {American Economic Review}, volume = {101}, number = {5}, year = {2011}, note = {Draft Date: February, 2010}, pages = {1707-1738}, author = {Timothy Erickson and Ariel Pakes} } @article {21997, title = {Alternative Models for Moment Inequalities}, journal = {Econometrica}, volume = {78}, number = {6}, year = {2010}, note = {Draft July 2010 }, pages = {1783-1822}, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @article {22004, title = {Multiple Equilibria and Selection by Learning in an Applied Setting}, journal = {Economic Letters}, volume = {104}, number = {1}, year = {2009}, note = {Draft Date: February, 2009.}, pages = {13-16}, author = {Robin S. Lee and Ariel Pakes} } @inbook {22008, title = {Factor Utilization in Indian Manufacturing: A Look at the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys Data}, booktitle = {The Growth of Employment on Southeast Asia}, year = {2008}, note = {Draft Date: February, 2008 }, publisher = {The World Bank}, organization = {The World Bank}, author = {Ana M. Fernandes and Ariel Pakes} } @workingpaper {22007, title = {Theory and Empirical Work on Imperfectly Competitive Markets}, year = {2008}, note = {Draft Date: May, 2008 }, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @inbook {22011, title = {A Framework for Applied Dynamic Analysis in IO}, booktitle = {The Handbook of Industrial Organization}, volume = {3}, year = {2007}, note = {Draft Date: September, 2006 }, pages = {Chapter 33 2183-2162}, publisher = {Elsevier}, organization = {Elsevier}, address = {New York}, author = {Ulirich Doraszelski and Ariel Pakes}, editor = {Mark Armstrong and Robert Porter} } @article {22009, title = {The Pure Characteristics Demand Model}, journal = {International Economic Review}, volume = {48}, number = {4}, year = {2007}, note = {Draft Date: July, 2007}, pages = {1193-1225}, author = {Steve Berry and Ariel Pakes} } @inbook {22012, title = {Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes}, booktitle = {The Handbook of Econometrics}, volume = {6A}, year = {2007}, note = {Draft Date: June, 2006}, pages = {4171-4276}, publisher = {North-Holland}, organization = {North-Holland}, address = {Amsterdam}, author = {Daniel Ackerberg and Lanier Benkard and Steven Berry and Ariel Pakes}, editor = {J. Heckman and E. Leamer} } @article {22013, title = {Simple Estimators for the Parameters of Discrete Dynamic Games (with Entry / Exit Examples)}, journal = {RAND Journal of Economics}, volume = {38}, number = {2}, year = {2007}, note = {Draft Date: June, 2005. }, pages = {373-399}, author = {Ariel Pakes and Michael Ostrovsky and Steve Berry} } @article {22014, title = {Hedonics and the Consumer Price Index}, journal = {Annales d{\textquoteright}Economie et de Statistique}, volume = {79-80}, year = {2005}, note = {Draft Date: May, 2005. }, pages = {729-749}, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @article {22018, title = {Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, volume = {112}, number = {1}, year = {2004}, note = {February 2003. }, pages = {68-105}, author = {Steve Berry and James Levinsohn and Ariel Pakes} } @article {22017, title = {Limit Theorems for Estimating the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand Systems}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, volume = {71}, number = {3}, year = {2004}, note = {Draft Date: May 2003. }, pages = {613-654}, author = {Steve Berry and Oliver B. Linton and Ariel Pakes} } @article {22015, title = {Common Sense and Simplicity in Empirical Industrial Organization}, journal = {Review of Industrial Organization}, volume = {23}, year = {2004}, note = {Draft Date: November, 2003. }, month = {5 Apr.}, pages = {193-215}, address = {Symphony Hall, Boston}, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @article {22016, title = {A Reconsideration of Hedonic Price Indexes with an Application to PC{\textquoteright}s}, journal = {American Economic Review}, volume = {93}, number = {5}, year = {2003}, note = {Draft Date: August 2003. }, pages = {1578-1596}, author = {Ariel Pakes} } @article {22019, title = {Stochastic Approximation for Dynamic Analysis: Markov Perfect Equilibrium and the {\textquoteright}Curse{\textquoteright} of Dimensionality}, journal = {Econometrica}, volume = {69}, number = {5}, year = {2001}, note = {Revised March 2000. }, pages = {1261-1281}, author = {Ariel Pakes and Paul McGuire} } @workingpaper {22020, title = {Estimation from the Optimality Conditions for Dynamic Controls}, year = {2000}, note = {December 2000. }, author = {Steve Berry and Ariel Pakes} } @conference {22021, title = {New Economic Tools for Merger Analysis}, booktitle = {Economist{\textquoteright}s Perspectives on Antitrust}, year = {1997}, note = {Draft Date: April 1997. }, month = {April 1997}, publisher = {Charles River Associates Inc.}, organization = {Charles River Associates Inc.}, author = {Ariel Pakes} }