Why "Many-Model-Thinkers" Make Better Decisions


Scott E. Page. 11/19/2018. “Why "Many-Model-Thinkers" Make Better Decisions.” Harvard Business Review. Publisher's Version
Why "Many-Model-Thinkers" Make Better Decisions


Without models, making sense of data is hard. Data helps describe reality, albeit imperfectly. On its own, though, data can’t recommend one decision over another. If you notice that your best-performing teams are also your most diverse, that may be interesting. But to turn that data point into insight, you need to plug it into some model of the world — for instance, you may hypothesize that having a greater variety of perspectives on a team leads to better decision-making. Your hypothesis represents a model of the world.

Though single models can perform well, ensembles of models work even better. That is why the best thinkers, the most accurate predictors, and the most effective design teams use ensembles of models. They are what I call, many-model thinkers.